To The Moon

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  

On August 27 (after market close), Nvidia ($NVDA, ~$178) will report Q2 earnings — the most anticipated event of the season. AI remains the market’s hottest trade, but with expectations sky-high, the question is: will NVDA deliver a leap forward, or set a trap for crowded longs?

🔎 Macro & Sector Backdrop

Fed Pivot Boost: Powell's dovish Jackson Hole stance lifted tech sentiment, lowering yields and benefiting growth.

AI Demand Surge: Upstream packaging, server boards, and hyperscaler orders are all running hot.

Valuation Risk: NVDA trades at premium multiples — any stumble could trigger sharp profit-taking.

📊 What to Watch

1. Q2 Revenue: Street expects ~$32–33B. A $34B+ print would be a blowout.

2. Margins: Investors need to see sustained >75% gross margin.

3. Guidance: Watch for updates on GB200/GB300 ramp-up and Rubin series mass production.

4. Cloud/Hyperscaler Commentary: Any signs of order slowdowns will spook the market.

🎯 Prediction Scenarios (Next Week)

🚀 Bullish Case (Leap)

Revenue > $34B + strong guidance.

Break above $185–190, chase toward $200+ near term.

😐 Neutral Case (In-line)

Results match Street, guidance steady.

Stock chops between $172–182 into September.

⚠️ Bearish Case (Trap)

Revenue miss < $32B or supply chain delays.

Fast drop toward $165–170, worst-case retest at $160.

✅ Takeaway

Nvidia earnings will dictate not just its own path, but the entire AI trade (QQQ, SPY, AI/cloud names). With sentiment euphoric, the setup is binary: a true leap higher if they crush expectations, or a sharp trap if they disappoint.

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!