COIN is nearing a potential rebound phase
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long COIN Daily ETF(CONL)$ $GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Daily ETF(CONI)$
1. Today’s Market Flow
Coinbase (COIN) closed at $300.3, down -1.35% from the previous session.
The stock remains in a Bearish trend zone, reflecting ongoing selling pressure and cautious investor sentiment.
Over the past 21 days, COIN has consistently remained in this Bearish zone, accumulating a decline of -24.5% since July 23, 2025. This performance highlights the importance of risk management and defensive positioning.
Selling activity continues to outweigh buying pressure, although signs of a potential rebound trend are emerging as downward momentum begins to slow.
*Key Factors Driving COIN Today
Sluggish Trading Activity and Revenue Decline
Coinbase’s Q2 financial results showed a significant drop in transaction revenue (down 39% from the previous quarter) and overall trading activity, which led to revenues missing Wall Street expectations. This signaled to investors that activity on the platform was slowing sharply, a trend exacerbated by lower volatility in crypto markets.Unfavorable Subscription Guidance
The company provided a less-than-enthusiastic outlook for its subscription revenue. This forecast, combined with weak trading performance, resulted in analysts revising price targets downward and, in some cases, lowering their stock ratings for COIN.Broader Market and Macroeconomic Sentiment
Disappointing macroeconomic data and renewed trade tariff discussions in the U.S. weighed heavily on risk assets, including crypto-related equities like Coinbase. Worries about recessions and shifting trade policies have increased the perceived risk of holding high-beta stocks tied to digital assets.Comparative Underperformance in the Crypto Sector
While Coinbase posted disappointing numbers, some competitors—such as Robinhood—reported growth in their crypto trading revenue, highlighting Coinbase’s unique challenges amid a sector-wide backdrop of changing risk tolerance.Shift in Market Behavior and Regulatory Uncertainty
Crypto markets entered a phase of lower volatility and reduced trading, partially due to investors holding assets during a bullish crypto cycle and awaiting further clarity on U.S. regulations. Sector-wide anticipation of key data releases, possible Fed rate cuts, and major regulatory updates also contributed to market caution, limiting upside for trading-focused platforms like Coinbase.
In summary, COIN’s decline on August 21 was driven by disappointing earnings, a weak outlook, diminished market volatility, mounting macroeconomic pressures, and evolving sector dynamics—all of which combined to sour investor sentiment toward Coinbase stock.
2. Long-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
Trend Zone: Bearish
Recommended Position: Sell and Observe
In the long-term view, COIN is still locked in a Bearish cycle. Historically, Bearish zones are marked by:
Downtrend: Persistent declines with minor recoveries.
Rebound Trend: Short-lived upward movements within a downward framework.
For long-term investors, remaining defensive is the most suitable stance:
Continue holding cash or alternative positions until COIN transitions into a Bullish zone.
The “Sell and Observe” strategy has been effective in preserving capital, avoiding further downside exposure.
There is a 60% probability of entering the Bullish zone within 4 days, which could present the next significant buying opportunity.
Until then, maintaining caution remains the most prudent long-term approach.
3. Short-Term Investment Strategy & Analysis
Current Position: Neutral
Key Observation: Market is preparing to shift from a downtrend into a rebound trend.
Short-term strategy highlights:
Buying Window: Aug 22–25, with a target entry price around $305.1.
Selling Window: Aug 28–29, with a target exit price around $330.7.
Trend Expectation (10 days): 70% upward movement vs. 30% downward movement.
Investors should:
Stay conservative during short-term rebounds.
Use upward surges as selling or hedging opportunities.
Consider low-exposure purchases only when the rebound confirms stability.
4. 10-Day Forecast & Trend Outlook and Insights
Projected Price Range: $294.3 ~ $327.3
Expected % Change: -2.0% ~ +9.0%
Median Forecast Price: $310.8 (+3.5%)
Additional Forecast Insights:
Turning Points: Likely trend shifts today and again around 7 days from now.
Correlation with U.S. Market Index:
Moves in sync: 76% probability
Moves independently: 24% probability
Trend Intensity:
Upward moves: Avg. +56% strength
Downward moves: Avg. -52% strength
Average Closing Prices:
Rising days: +3.7% (high ~ +5.1%, low ~ -1.3%)
Falling days: -2.3% (high ~ +1.6%, low ~ -3.8%)
Overall, COIN is forecasted to lean upward in the next 10 days, but volatility tied to the broader U.S. stock market remains a critical factor.
5. Strategic Takeaways & Final Thoughts
For Long-Term Investors:
Stay patient. Continue with a Sell and Observe stance until COIN confirms entry into a Bullish zone. Risk remains elevated, but a potential Bullish shift within days could create a strong buying setup.For Short-Term Traders:
Neutral positioning is appropriate until confirmation of the rebound. Consider light buying between Aug 22–25 and aim for profit-taking between Aug 28–29 near $330.7.
Bottom Line:
COIN is nearing a potential rebound phase after weeks of heavy selling. However, until the Bullish zone is confirmed, both long- and short-term investors should remain cautious, prioritize capital preservation, and prepare to act quickly if the upward breakout solidifies.
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