To The Moon

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I’m extremely confident AppLovin ($APP) is offering one of the sharpest combinations of technical setup, institutional demand, and fundamental outperformance we’ve seen this quarter. The story isn’t just on the chart; it’s reinforced by peer benchmarks that prove the strength of APP’s model.

📊 Technical Read

The rebound from the $385.19 low and swift recovery above $420 show clear buyer conviction. The textbook inverse head-and-shoulders is intact, with $429 the key level to watch. That pivot lines up with prior breakout zones, a heavy volume shelf, and the 21EMA reclaim. I’m watching this level closely because holding it validates the next leg toward $450–$491.

📈 Fundamentals and Institutional Flow

Q2 was a blockbuster: EPS up 153% to $2.28, revenue growth 77%, and analysts now modeling FY25 EPS of $9.18 and FY26 EPS of $13.41. That’s a projected 46% jump in earnings next year. Wells Fargo just raised their price target to $491, reflecting this acceleration. Mutual funds have added shares for eight straight quarters, with 2,376 funds now holding. I’m unequivocally optimistic when this much institutional money is leaning the same way.

🏰 Axon 2 Moat

Northbeam’s dataset shows AppLovin delivering 45% higher ROAS than Meta and 115% higher than TikTok, Snapchat, Pinterest, and YouTube. Even more striking: 85% of APP’s conversions are first-time buyers. I’m fully convinced this black-box optimizer, trained on 13 years of first-party data, is a compounding moat. The data clearly visualizes APP at 145 vs Meta’s 100 baseline.

📊 Peer Benchmark Comparison

Google’s AdMob and Unity/ironSource represent the most direct benchmarks in mobile ad monetization. Both edge only slightly above Meta on ROAS efficiency, yet AppLovin decisively outpaces them at 145. This gap underscores how APP has moved beyond simply competing with social platforms; it is establishing dominance over its closest structural peers. I’m confident that this advantage is what transforms visibility into long-term conviction.

💵 EPS Growth Trajectory

Consensus estimates project EPS climbing from $9.18 in FY25 to $13.41 in FY26, a 46.1% jump. I’m convinced that pairing the ROAS edge with explosive bottom-line expansion is the one-two punch that explains why Wells Fargo lifted their target and why funds are accumulating.

⚖️ Balancing the Signals

Insider selling at $429.88 by a director is worth acknowledging, but against eight consecutive quarters of institutional accumulation, raised targets, and a technical reclaim of $429, I’m confident the signal leans bullish.

This isn’t just a trade; it’s a roadmap that fuses technical structure, institutional conviction, and proprietary data advantages into a narrative of dominance.

Do you see $APP’s superiority over AdMob and Unity/ironSource as the real catalyst for sustained breakout, or is $429 the only line in the sand that matters?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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