Tech stocks are now the most expensive in history
“[MIT] researchers said 95% of organizations are getting zero returns from their investments in generative AI.”
🤔
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Also consider the above alongside the market cycle (valuations are currently extreme expensive = risky phase) --as outlined here:
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AND the bubble cycle -- where things start with good reason and end when things become unreasonable... often with as Soros terms "a moment of truth"
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and the cycle of investor emotions (and p.s. I think this one got a big reset back in April, so the clock got wound back and we're still in the excitement/greed phase)
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And for fun here's some actual data where you can basically see the market cycle in action.
(rolling 10-year total return spread of stocks vs bonds)
[on this lens we look well-progressed in the cycle as we're well beyond the average (magnitude) and getting there on duration]
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16 years ago US Tech stocks were *cheap* (in absolute terms i.e. vs history, and in relative terms i.e. vs the index).
After rising 20x off the 2009 lows, tech stocks are now the most expensive in history outside of the final phases of the dot com bubble.
and p.s. in 2009 it was unthinkable to buy stocks, and in 2000 it was unthinkable to sell stocks...
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