To The Moon

Nvidia Slumps as AI Yields “Zero” — First Crack in the Boom? 🤖📉

Nvidia ($NVIDIA(NVDA)$  ) dropped 3.5% on Tuesday, adding to a string of red days in August. For the stock that became the face of the AI revolution, that kind of slide sends ripples across the market.

The trigger? Reports that 95% of organisations using generative AI see no measurable ROI yet, paired with OpenAI’s Sam Altman saying AI is “in a bubble phase.” Suddenly, the trillion-dollar AI trade doesn’t look invincible.

---

AI’s ROI Problem 📊

The MIT report is striking: almost every company is experimenting with AI, but most are still stuck in pilot mode. No revenue, no efficiency gains, no bottom-line boost — at least not yet.

For context, this mirrors the early 2000s internet cycle. Billions were spent before real business models emerged. Eventually, Amazon and Google thrived — but many dot-coms vanished.

That’s the tension for investors: is AI 1999, or 2005?

---

Why Nvidia Matters More Than Anyone 💡

If AI is the story of this decade, Nvidia is its lead character.

It controls over 80% of the AI GPU market.

Its revenues tripled last year on hyperscaler demand.

Its valuation already bakes in years of sustained growth.

When Nvidia wobbles, it’s not just about one stock. It questions whether the AI gold rush is already overbought. For retail investors, this is the signal that can shape sector rotations, fund flows, and sentiment across all of tech.

---

Bear vs Bull — The Clash 🐻🐂

The Bear Case (⚠️ Caution):

Current AI spend = capex without ROI. A bubble by definition.

High multiples + rising yields = pressure on expensive growth stocks.

If enterprises slow GPU purchases, Nvidia’s momentum could cool fast.

The Bull Case (🚀 Patience):

AI adoption is still in chapter one. ROI may lag, but demand is sticky.

Like cloud computing in the 2010s, monetisation could explode once adoption scales.

Nvidia’s “picks-and-shovels” role gives it resilience — even if customers stumble, GPUs remain essential infrastructure.

---

Investor Psychology 🤔

Every bubble narrative triggers déjà vu: dot-com, crypto, EVs. But cycles don’t repeat exactly — they rhyme.

The key for investors is time horizon:

Traders may see rising risk of a correction — chasing momentum at ATHs is dangerous.

Long-term investors may view weakness as entry points, betting Nvidia will be the “Amazon of AI” rather than its Pets.com.

Both can be right, depending on the time frame.

---

The Big Question for Tigers 🐯

This dip isn’t just about one day’s red candle. It’s about whether AI’s promise can deliver before investor patience runs out.

So Tigers —

Is Nvidia still the best way to own the AI megatrend, or has the trade overheated?

Would you treat this as healthy profit-taking, or the first crack in a bigger correction?

How long are you personally willing to wait before AI shows up in earnings, not just hype?

@TigerWire  @TigerEvents  @Daily_Discussion  @Tiger_comments  @TigerStars