To The Moon

Pop Mart is rewriting the rulebook with its first-half 2025 results, posting a staggering RMB 13.876 billion in revenue—a 204.4% year-on-year leap that already tops the full-year 2024 total of RMB 13.04 billion. Net profit soared to RMB 4.709 billion, up 362% from last year, outpacing the 2024 full-year profit of RMB 3.4 billion and smashing expectations. With the S&P 500 at 6,466.58, Bitcoin at $124,002, and oil at $75/barrel amid 30-35% tariffs, the rally stands out, though the VIX at 14.49 hints at lurking volatility. The stock, trading at HK$284 as of Tuesday, has surged 270% year-to-date, fueled by a diversified revenue stream where Labubu’s contribution dipped to 34.7% from over 40%, signaling a healthier portfolio. Can this momentum push it to HK$300 this week, or is the valuation overstretched? This deep dive explores the drivers, risks, and strategies to ride the wave.

The Earnings Surge: What’s Propelling Pop Mart?

The numbers reveal a company on fire:

• Revenue Explosion: RMB 13.876 billion, up 204.4%, driven by a 480% surge in international revenue to RMB 6.2 billion and a 1289% jump in plush toy sales, with 13 IPs each exceeding RMB 1 billion, led by THE MONSTERS (RMB 4.814 billion) and MOLLY (RMB 1.357 billion).

• Profit Powerhouse: Adjusted net profit of RMB 4.709 billion, a 362% increase, with a gross margin of 66.8%, reflecting premium pricing and cost efficiency, up from 61.3% in 2024.

• Diversification Win: Labubu’s share fell to 34.7% from over 40%, with emerging IPs like SKULLPANDA (RMB 1.22 billion) and CRYBABY (RMB 1.218 billion) gaining traction, reducing reliance on a single character.

• Global Footprint: 130 overseas stores, including 43 in the U.S. and 19 in Europe, generated nearly RMB 3.1 billion, with plans for 100 more by year-end, boosting overseas revenue to 45% of the total.

• Market Hype: Posts found on X celebrate “Pop Mart’s global takeover” and “Labubu’s fading dominance,” though some caution about valuation risks as the stock nears HK$300.

This earnings beat showcases a maturing IP ecosystem, but sustainability is key.

Market Forces: Rally Fuel or Overvaluation Risk?

The broader picture is a mixed bag:

• Consumer Demand: Global collectibles sales rose 35% in 2025, with China’s Gen Z driving a 1,200% plush toy surge, supporting Pop Mart’s growth as it opens stores in Paris and New York’s Times Square.

• Tariff Pressure: The 30-35% tariffs on key markets could raise costs, with Prism Capital’s 0.9% GDP cut estimate threatening margins, though domestic strength offsets some risk.

• Technical Signals: At HK$284, the 50-day moving average at HK$210 and resistance at HK$300 suggest a tight range, with support at HK$270 if profit-taking hits.

• Valuation Debate: A forward P/E of 18.5x and P/S of 3.2x exceed historical norms, raising questions about whether the 270% YTD gain already prices in growth, with analysts split on “Buy” versus “Hold.”

• Sentiment Split: Optimism on X touts “undervalued IP giant,” but bearish views warn of a 10-15% correction if new IPs falter or regulatory scrutiny intensifies.

The stock’s trajectory depends on maintaining momentum beyond Labubu.

Can HK$300 Happen This Week? The Outlook

Is the HK$300 target within reach?

• Bull Case: At HK$284, a 5-6% rise to HK$298-$300 is feasible this week if earnings hype sustains, with a 12-month target of HK$350 (23% upside) if overseas expansion and IP diversity hold.

• Bear Case: A 5-8% dip to HK$262-$270 risks if tariff costs or IP fatigue emerge, with HK$260 as support; a drop below could test HK$250, a 52-week low.

• Historical Context: Pop Mart’s all-time high of HK$336.8 (June 2025) and recent low of HK$75 (January 2025) frame a volatile range, but its $34 billion market cap signals resilience.

• Catalyst Watch: Overseas store performance, new IP launches like the Uniqlo x Labubu UT Collection (August 22), or tariff updates could drive gains, while Q3 guidance below expectations might cap the rally.

• Daily Forecast: HK$285-$290 (Wednesday), HK$288-$295 (Thursday), HK$290-$300 (Friday), per analyst trends, eyeing a HK$300 close if momentum peaks.

• Long-Term View: If revenue hits RMB 20 billion by 2025 and net profit doubles to RMB 8 billion by 2026, a HK$400 target (41% upside) emerges, though risks persist.

HK$300 is within striking distance if catalysts align.

Trading Strategies: Chase the High or Hedge the Dip

Short-Term Plays

• Breakout Chase: Buy at HK$285-$287, target HK$298-$300, stop at HK$278. A 5-6% gain if hype holds.

• Dip Buy: Buy at HK$270-$275, target HK$290-$295, stop at HK$265. A 7-9% rebound if support holds.

• Profit Take: Sell at HK$295-$298, target HK$285-$290, stop at HK$302. A 3-4% gain if overbought.

• Options Play: Buy HK$300 calls or sell HK$275 puts (August expiry) for 150-200% gains on a 6% move.

• Scalp Swing: Buy at HK$284, sell at HK$290-$292, stop at HK$282. A 2-3% quick win.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Pop Mart: Buy at HK$280-$285, target HK$350-$400 by 2026, for 23-41% upside if growth persists. Stop at HK$260.

• Toy Play: Buy Hasbro at $65-$67, target $75-$80, for 12-19% upside. Stop at $62.

• Tech Diversify: Buy Tencent at HK$450-$455, target HK$500-$520, for 10-14% upside. Stop at HK$440.

• Defensive Pick: Buy Nestlé at CHF 100-$102, target CHF 110-$115, for 8-13% upside. Stop at CHF 98.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility.

• SPY Puts: Use puts at 6,400 for a 5-10% market drop.

• Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $210, stop at $195, as a buffer.

My Trading Plan: Riding Pop Mart’s Record Wave

I’m jumping into Pop Mart’s momentum with a calculated move. I’ll buy at HK$285-$287, targeting HK$300, with a HK$278 stop, betting on earnings and IP strength. I’ll add Tencent at HK$450-$455, aiming for HK$470, with a HK$440 stop, for tech exposure. I’ll include Hasbro at $65-$67, targeting $72, with a $62 stop, and Nestlé at CHF 100-$102, targeting CHF 107, with a CHF 98 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and holding 20% cash for a dip to HK$270 or tariff news. I’ll watch overseas updates and Uniqlo launch closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Pop Mart’s H1 2025 record of RMB 13.876 billion revenue and RMB 4.709 billion profit, up 204.4% and 362%, outshines 2024’s full-year totals as of August 20, 2025, against a 6,466.58 S&P 500 and $124,002 Bitcoin. A 5-6% weekly rise to HK$300 is in play if earnings momentum and IP diversity hold, with a long-term HK$400 target (41% upside) by 2026 if overseas growth continues. A 5-8% dip to HK$262-$270 threatens if tariffs or IP reliance resurfaces, but support at HK$270 offers a floor. The 34.7% Labubu drop signals balance, though valuation at 18.5x P/E invites scrutiny. Chase the rally, hedge with VIXY or GLD, and monitor news. This could be your breakout trade—decide now.

Will Pop Mart hit HK$300 this week? Share your call below! 🎁

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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