To The Moon

$Wal-Mart(WMT)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, August 21, 2025. As a retail bellwether, its results will offer a key look into the health of the U.S. consumer and the broader economy.

Revenue: The consensus revenue forecast is approximately $174.2 billion. This represents an expected year-over-year increase of about 3.7%.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus EPS forecast is $0.73 per share, which would be a 9% increase from the prior-year quarter.

Summary of Walmart (WMT) Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings

Walmart reported a strong start to its fiscal year with its Q1 2026 earnings, released on May 15, 2025. The company delivered solid results that exceeded analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

Financial Performance:

Revenue: Total revenue was $165.6 billion, up 2.5% year-over-year. In constant currency, revenue grew 4.0%, indicating underlying strength despite foreign exchange headwinds.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Adjusted EPS came in at $0.61, a notable beat against the Zacks consensus estimate.

Same-Store Sales: Walmart U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) grew by 4.5%, driven by a 21% surge in e-commerce sales. This growth was also fueled by an increase in both transaction counts and average ticket size.

Profitability: The company demonstrated effective cost management, with its consolidated gross profit rate improving by 12 basis points to 24.2%.

Operational Highlights:

E-commerce: Global e-commerce sales were a standout, growing by 22% and becoming profitable globally for the first time. This success was attributed to strong performance in store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services.

Higher-Margin Businesses: Walmart saw strong growth in its higher-margin revenue streams. Global advertising revenue surged 50%, while membership income grew 14.8%, highlighting the value of its Walmart+ and Sam's Club offerings.

Inventory Management: The company noted that its inventory was "in good shape," a positive sign that it is effectively managing its supply chain and minimizing the need for markdowns.

Lessons Learned from the Guidance

Walmart's guidance and management's commentary on the Q1 call offered key insights into its strategy for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Lesson 1: The E-commerce Pivot is Working and is a Key Profit Driver. The most significant lesson from the report is the success of Walmart's omnichannel strategy. The company is now successfully monetizing its e-commerce business, which is transitioning from a high-growth, money-losing segment to a profitable part of the business. The report demonstrates that investments in digital capabilities, such as pickup and delivery, and the marketplace are paying off.

Lesson 2: Diversified Revenue Streams Are Critical for Stability. The strong growth in membership and advertising revenue provides a crucial buffer against potential volatility in core retail sales. These higher-margin businesses offer a more stable and predictable income stream, enhancing the company's overall profitability and resilience against economic headwinds. This signals to investors that Walmart is more than just a traditional brick-and-mortar retailer.

Lesson 3: The Market is Cautious on the Consumer and the Impact of Tariffs. Despite the strong results and the company's reaffirmation of its full-year guidance, the stock's muted reaction post-earnings reflected ongoing concerns. Management's commentary on the potential impact of tariffs and the need to raise prices signaled that profitability could be under pressure. This tells investors that while Walmart is well-positioned to navigate these challenges, it is not immune to them. The market's focus remains on how the company will balance its value proposition with rising costs and a potentially more cautious consumer.

Analysis of Walmart (WMT) Q2 2026 Earnings

Investors will be closely watching several key metrics to gauge the company's performance and future outlook.

Key Metrics to Watch

Same-Store Sales (Comparable Sales) Growth: This is a crucial indicator of the company's core retail performance. A strong same-store sales number, especially in the U.S., would signal that Walmart's value proposition is resonating with consumers facing economic pressures.

E-commerce Growth: Walmart has been heavily investing in its e-commerce platform to compete with rivals like Amazon. Investors will be looking for sustained double-digit growth in this segment and any commentary on its profitability.

Membership Revenue (Walmart+ and Sam's Club): This has become a significant, high-margin revenue stream for the company. Strong growth in membership subscriptions and renewals, particularly for Walmart+ and Sam's Club's "Plus" memberships, will be a major focus.

Profitability and Margins: The company's ability to manage costs, including inflation and supply chain expenses, will be critical. Investors will be scrutinizing gross margins and operating income to see if Walmart can sustain or improve its profitability. The impact of tariffs on pricing and margins is also a key concern.

Forward Guidance: The most important factor for the stock's post-earnings movement will be management's outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026. Any changes to revenue or EPS guidance will heavily influence analyst price targets and investor sentiment.

Walmart (WMT) Price Target

Based on 37 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Walmart in the last 3 months. The average price target is $111.19 with a high forecast of $120.00 and a low forecast of $101.00. The average price target represents a 9.78% change from the last price of $101.29.

Short-Term Trading Opportunities Post-Earnings

Trading Walmart's stock after its earnings report is a high-risk proposition, but it presents potential opportunities.

History of Earnings Beats: Walmart has a strong track record of beating analyst EPS estimates, which could lead to a positive surprise. The current consensus forecasts a 9% year-over-year increase in EPS and a 3.7% increase in sales.

Low Expectations and Analyst Sentiment: The stock has been under pressure recently due to broader economic concerns, which may have set a low bar for the Q2 report. A better-than-expected result, especially concerning membership growth or same-store sales, could trigger a short-term rally.

Volatility: While Walmart is a large, stable company, its stock can be volatile around earnings. Options prices suggest a potential price move of about 4% in either direction. Traders can use this to their advantage with options strategies, but they must be prepared for a significant move.

Market Bellwether: As a major U.S. retailer, Walmart's report is often seen as a bellwether for the consumer. A positive report could boost the entire retail sector, while a weak report could lead to a broader market sell-off.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Though we saw a decline recent in WMT share price but the bulls remain in control and have managed to make a daily uptrend continuation and we can see a small consolidation as investors await the earnings release, we could see a price surge if WMT were to provide an earnings beat and with a positive outlook guidance we could see a further daily uptrend expansion.

But we need to factor in what is the impact and cost of the tariffs for WMT, whether these have been factored in.

Summary

Walmart (WMT) is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings on Thursday, August 21. As a key indicator of consumer health, its report will be closely watched.

Analysts are anticipating modest growth, with a consensus forecast of $174.02 billion in revenue and an EPS of $0.72. The stock has a positive outlook, with a "Buy" consensus rating from analysts.

Key metrics for investors include U.S. same-store sales and the continued growth of higher-margin businesses like e-commerce, advertising, and membership fees. The company's ability to navigate ongoing cost pressures, particularly from tariffs, will be a major focus.

While Walmart has a history of beating earnings estimates, a muted stock reaction is possible if the company's guidance is cautious. The low expectations from recent economic concerns could create a short-term trading opportunity, but traders should be prepared for volatility as the market digests the report and its implications for the broader retail sector.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think WMT would be able to provide an earnings beat while a positive outlook guidance is given.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.