To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ I’m extremely confident this setup is the cleanest large-cap asymmetric play right now; inside weekly bar price compression, technical breakout, and capital firepower aligning to fuel upside. I’m watching Uber alongside $MCD as twin mobility catalysts. I’m convinced the market is missing the secular Gen Z trend: a generation refusing car ownership is accelerating demand for ride-sharing and delivery platforms. I’m targeting 97.50 then 100 with conviction backed by both flow and fundamentals.

Chart Breakdown

I’m watching the inside weekly bar compressing then breaking out. Daily action cleared 93.61, with high at 96.50, low 93.85, ATR 2.70, relative volume 1.1, RS rating 85.6, projected volume 23.68 M. The 21-EMA sits at 91.58, 55-EMA at 89.50. Four-hour candles pressing the upper Keltner and Bollinger bands signal expansion. I’m targeting a test of 97.50 before 100. Intraday three-minute shows a morning thrust to 95.8 to 96.2 before mean reversion reclaiming short EMAs. Fibonacci pivots: 89.86, 93.74, 99.32, extension to 151.68. Ichimoku’s key confirmation level at 94.20; above that, cloud bias tilts higher. AVWAP cluster in the 94 to 95 zone expected to lock in support. Relative strength continues heading for fresh all-time highs. This is not divergence; it is detachment.

Earnings Snapshot

Q2 2025 delivered revenue of 12.651 B (+ 18.23 per cent YoY), gross bookings 46.756 B (+ 17 per cent), adjusted EBITDA 2.119 B (+ 35 per cent), income from operations 1.450 B (+ 82 per cent), net income 1.355 B; EPS beat at 0.63 versus 0.62. TTM free cash flow stands at circa 8.5 B. Uber announced a 20 B buyback tranche, taking total authorisation to 23 B. Q3 guidance: gross bookings 48.25 to 49.75 B, adjusted EBITDA 2.19 to 2.29 B. I’m confident this trajectory repositions Uber from cyclical to cash-compounder. I’m extremely confident the subscription engine is accelerating: Uber One membership grew about 60 per cent year on year to 36 M and now drives more than 40 per cent of Mobility and Delivery orders. Monthly Active Platform Consumers reached roughly 180 M, up 15 per cent year on year.

Segment Revenues

Mobility: revenue 7.288 B (+ 19 per cent), bookings 23.762 B (+ 18 per cent).

Delivery: revenue 4.102 B (+ 25 per cent), bookings 21.734 B (+ 20 per cent).

Freight: revenue 1.261 B.

Airport rides and premium vehicle options such as Black and Comfort contributed meaningfully to the period’s performance. Delivery expansion into grocery and retail via the Trendyol Go acquisition is accelerating. I’m convinced the dual-engine model is Uber’s margin multiplier. I’m also watching partnerships with fleet management companies that extend vehicle supply and lower friction for drivers.

Flow & Institutional Moves

A sweep of 5,596 contracts at the 96C expiring 05 Sep generated 1.435 M in premium (average fill 2.57). A single 10:20 to 10:30 ET block traded 4,504 contracts, 1.167 M premium at a 2.59 average. Buyers also moved into 100C expiring 19 Sep; source: Unusual Whales. Tape showed repeated hits ascending across 31-day and 150-day strikes with 2.08 to 3.30 premiums. Net call premium turned decisively positive as spot climbed to 95.82. Short interest 8.39 M shares, daily short volume 2.35 M, short ratio 14.27 per cent. I’m confident institutional demand is building into a sustained short squeeze.

Valuation Check

Uber trades at approximately 16 times forward P/E compared with Alphabet at roughly 22 times. EBITDA margin on gross bookings has risen to about 4.5 per cent from 3.9 per cent. Ad revenue is running with a 1.5 B annual run rate, stacked atop Uber One’s margin tailwinds. I’m convinced Uber is priced like a cyclical when in fact it is evolving into a subscription and ad platform. Uber is as cheap, and arguably more despised, as Google right now. For clarity on scale: Uber is about a 190 B market cap generating roughly 50 B in annual revenue, about 10 B in free cash flow, and about 8 B in EBITDA.

Analyst PTs & Sentiment

TD Cowen reiterated Buy with a 108 price target, citing US trip growth, easing insurance costs, AV partnerships, Uber One expansion, and ad monetisation; they left “incrementally more confident.” Stephen Weiss on CNBC said he “expects a new high.” Consensus price targets range from 105 to 110, with stretch calls reaching 117. I’m confident the buyback combined with demand flow will force target upgrades.

Macro & Competitive Lens

US CPI is around 2.9 per cent year on year and September rate cut probabilities are rising; that supports discretionary spend on mobility. Regulatory risks persist: Europe’s Platform Work Directive and California’s Prop 22 litigation. Uber has navigated regulatory cycles previously. I’m watching autonomy carefully. William Blair’s Austin robotaxi trial described Tesla’s service as half the price of Uber, around 10 per cent of Waymo’s cost, more luxurious, and human-like in driving. Blair also projected robotaxi could reach about 250 B in revenue with about 60 per cent EBITDA margins by 2040. That is a potential market reckoning in pricing power. My counter remains simple: Uber’s edge is the demand network and distribution with 20 plus autonomous partners; I’m convinced that aggregation moat will matter more than owning the vehicle hardware.

ETF Exposure

Uber makes up 22.74 per cent of the iShares Transportation ETF, 4.27 per cent of the Industrials SPDR, and around 0.34 per cent of the S&P 500. Flow rotation into ETFs will magnify Uber movements. I’m confident a liquidity flush through passive funds will amplify breakouts.

Live Sentiment (20 August NZST)

Online chatter shows elevated optimism. Investor forums and data trackers reflect a flattening put to call skew, an average one-year price target near the high 90s, and persistent institutional ownership near 80 per cent. I’m watching sentiment emphasise the buyback as proof of undervaluation and autonomy aggregation as the next leg. I’m confident this tailwind will feed the technical thesis.

Strategy & Growth Drivers

Three flywheels power this thesis: Uber One membership stickiness, ad monetisation with high incremental returns, and AV aggregation across a multi-partner ecosystem. The company has seeded 20 plus autonomy partners globally, building an AWS-like platform without hardware. I’m confident this is Uber’s early Amazon super app moment. I do not see this derailing unless execution falters.

My Trade Plan

Bias: bullish continuation. Trigger: sustained close above 94.20. Add on breakout above 97.50. Targets: 100, then 105, stretch 115 plus on a multi-week horizon. Pullback zone: 94.20 to 93.74 with stop below 91.58. Deeper test: 89.50. I’m watching net call flow and ask-side sweeps in 96 to 100 strikes for confirmation. If Tesla robotaxi begins to undercut fares broadly, I will shift to tactically cautious. Prove me wrong.

Conclusion

I’m fully convinced Uber is entering a structural repricing regime. I’m watching technical compression resolve into sustained upside. I’m targeting multi-week continuation toward 105 to 115 as capital returns, options flow, and fundamental metrics converge. This is not speculation; it is a high-probability framework built from the inside out.

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