To The Moon

The Trump administration is brewing a major move that could reshape U.S. industrial policy, considering diverting billions of dollars in federal subsidies to chip giants$Intel (INTC) $Direct equity investment, which may make the government its largest shareholder.

According to media reports, the Trump administration is discussing converting some or all of the funding from the American Chip and Science Act into equity to hold about 10% of Intel's shares. Intel has been arranged to receive a total of approximately $10.9 billion in subsidies for commercial and military purposes, which is basically equivalent to the approximately $10.5 billion needed to acquire a 10% equity.

At the same time, Japan's SoftBank Group has taken the lead. SoftBank agreed to invest $2 billion in Intel at $23 per share, according to a joint statement released Monday. SoftBank Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son said the move reflected its belief that there will be further expansion in U.S. manufacturing and supply of advanced semiconductors and believes Intel will play a "key role" in it.

The news triggered a violent reaction from the market. Intel's stock price fell 5.5% on Monday after media reports that the government may take a stake, and then the decline narrowed, but it still fell more than 3.6% at midday. After the announcement of SoftBank's investment news, Intel's stock price rose in after-hours trading. The stock had its best weekly gain since February in the previous week, rising 23%.

Before the potential government action surfaced, SoftBank Group had cast a vote of confidence in Intel with actual actions. The two companies said in a joint statement that the cooperation aims to "deepen their commitment to advanced technology and chip innovation in the United States."

"Intel has been a trusted innovation leader for more than five decades," Son said in the statement.The strategic investment expands SoftBank's investment layout in the U.S., which also includes investment in artificial intelligence computing. For Intel, bringing in strategic investors is part of its efforts to prove that it can return to its technological leadership.

Earlier media reports said that after Trump held a meeting with Chen Liwu, the U.S. government may consider taking a stake in Intel. Intel stock price began to rise. Trump previously said that his meeting with Chen Liwu was "very interesting".

Since the Trump administration took office, the question of Intel's future has been thorny for its officials. The once industry-leading company has lagged behind the world's leaders in chip miniaturization processes$台积电 (TSM.US)$, and these chips are the core components of devices such as smartphones and artificial intelligence. It also complicates efforts to revive chip manufacturing in the United States.

Analysts said the support from federal funds could give Intel more breathing room to revive its loss-making foundry business, but the company still faces challenges such as a weak product roadmap and difficulty attracting customers.

Go Long Intel with Put Options

The current Intel price is $23.66, and we can sell itExpires September 26, 2025, exercise price 23, premium $116Put Option (Put Option) to go long Intel.

This strategy can not only profit when Intel rises, but even if Intel moves sideways or falls slightly, it can still rely on premium to earn earnings.

Maximum benefit:

If the Intel stock price is higher than or equal to $23 at expiration, the option will not be exercised and you retain your entire premium. The maximum gain is $116.

Maximum loss:

If the Intel stock price drops to $0, you need to buy 100 shares at $23, with a total cost of $2,300. Subtracting the premium received of $116, the maximum loss was $2,184.

Break-even point:

The breakeven point is $21.84 (i.e. the exercise price of $23 minus $1.16 per premium). As long as the Intel stock price is above $21.84 at expiration, you are in net profit.

Advantages:

• The limited gain ($116) is locked in at the start;

• Higher winning rate, as long as the stock price does not fall sharply, you can make a profit;

• If you want to buy Intel stock in the first place, this way can reduce the buying cost. Risk warning:

• Profit and loss are asymmetric, the maximum income is limited, but the potential loss is large;

• Requires a margin account to support selling naked Put;

• Closing positions before expiration or rolling operations can be considered to dynamically manage risk.