To The Moon

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ $Centene(CNC)$ $Molina Healthcare(MOH)$ I’m tracking one of the most asymmetric setups in years as Buffett’s $1.6B UNH buy ignites CNC and MOH, Medicaid policy shifts add fuel, and hedge fund flows collide with a $1.2M bearish bet, setting the stage for a sector-wide repricing that could move fast.

From Deep Value to Breakout: Medicaid Giant Reclaims Momentum

I’m seeing CNC surge 6.02% to $28.55, breaking above its 20-day MA with volume support after weeks of accumulation. Medicaid exposure is the highest in the sector at 45.8% of its total medical book, with 12.8m lives covered. A 100 bps margin compression in Medicaid would hit EPS by 66.2%, yet at a price-to-sales ratio of just 0.08, CNC is so undervalued it could lose half its revenue overnight and still be cheap. Historically, CNC trades at 0.20 of UNH’s share price; now it’s 0.09. Fibonacci retracement from the $80.59 high shows key resistance near $29.10 (0.236 Fib) and $32.85 (0.382 Fib), while immediate support is anchored at $27.76. With a projected market size of $100.1B in 2025 and $200.5B by 2033 (7.9% CAGR), policy tailwinds and technical breakout targets $30–32 if $29 holds.

High Exposure, Higher Potential: Oversold Reversal in Motion

Molina Healthcare ($MOH) gained 4.75% to $167.21, bouncing from post-earnings lows near $150. It holds 83.3% of its medical book in Medicaid; second only to CNC; with 4.8m covered lives. A 100 bps Medicaid margin compression would cut EPS by 24.7%, but the current rebound setup has RSI and MACD turning up from oversold. Fibonacci levels place immediate resistance at $168.40 (0.236 Fib) and $174.92 (0.382 Fib) from the $365.23 high, with support at $164.50. A break above $168.40 opens the door to $174–175, while failure under $164.50 risks retesting $160. The Buffett halo effect and sector rotation give this chart added lift potential.

Buffett’s Anchor in Managed Care: Stability Meets Scale

UnitedHealth ($UNH) jumped 13.61% to $308.44 on Berkshire’s disclosed stake; its largest one-day gain in years. Medicaid exposure is only 14.6% of its medical book, with a 100 bps margin compression translating to just a 4.6% EPS impact; the lowest among the high-exposure MCOs. Forward P/E is near decade lows at ~16x. Despite Q2 EPS falling to $4.08 on higher medical cost ratios, revenue rose to $111.6 b. Hedge funds including Appaloosa, Lone Pine, and Two Sigma have followed Buffett in, creating a visible floor. Notably, today’s rally saw contrarian flow: one trader bought $1.2M in $300 strike puts expiring in two weeks. Fibonacci retracement from the $630.73 high highlights $311.12 (0.236 Fib) as the immediate upside target, with the next level near $333.45 (0.382 Fib). Support is set at $294.71. Holding above $300 could drive $310–320; below $290 risks stalling the reversal.

Sector Repricing in Real Time

I’m calling this one of the cleanest re-ratings I’ve seen in years. Buffett’s UNH entry not only anchors the largest, most diversified name but also sparks leveraged catch-up plays in CNC and MOH. Medicaid politics, undervaluation extremes, and technical triggers, now confirmed by Fibonacci levels across the board, are aligning into a rare confluence. This isn’t just a bounce; it’s a coordinated sector-wide repricing opportunity.

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