To The Moon

TSLA 

Here’s an up‑to‑date breakdown of Tesla’s Full Self‑Driving (Supervised) — its current state, safety record, and future prospects as of August 2025:

---

🚗 What Is Tesla Full Self‑Driving (Supervised)?

Tesla’s “FSD (Supervised)” is an advanced Level 2 driver‑assist system, requiring a fully attentive driver with hands on the wheel at all times .

It works via camera‑based input (Tesla Vision), navigating city streets, roundabouts, intersections, lane changes, parking maneuvers, and highway on-/off‑ramps—all under human supervision .

---

🛠️ Current Performance & Safety Metrics

In Q1 2025, Tesla reported one crash every 7.44 million miles when Autopilot/FSD was active—over 10× safer than vehicles without it and vastly better than the U.S. average (~1 crash per 702K miles) .

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates FSD is 26 times safer than the average U.S. driver .

According to Tesla, FSD-equipped vehicles have up to 75% fewer collisions per million miles versus human drivers .

Yet critics highlight a stagnation in miles per safety-critical disengagement, especially between versions V12 and V13—Tesla’s latest version (v13.2.9) is reportedly at just 371 miles between critical disengagements ⁠— significantly below expectations for fully autonomous operation .

---

⚠️ Risks, Incidents & Legal Challenges

Since FSD’s launch in 2020, there have been hundreds of non-fatal crashes, and at least 51 confirmed fatalities linked to Autopilot/far fewer to FSD itself .

A federal jury recently ruled Tesla partially responsible for a fatal 2019 crash, ordering $243 million in damages. Separately, another Florida verdict awarded $329 million, both of which have attracted wider scrutiny on Tesla’s marketing and driver expectations around FSD .

The NHTSA is currently investigating FSD’s performance in low-visibility and glare conditions, citing unresolved gaps in fleet telematics and data transparency .

---

🚀 Roadmap & Autonomy Ambitions

Tesla aims to launch a robotaxi pilot in Austin, Texas by June 22, 2025, starting with a small fleet of supervised Model Y vehicles. The goal is to scale up rapidly toward a broader Cybercab-based taxi service .

CEO Elon Musk has projected millions of fully autonomous Teslas on roads by late 2026, but critics point out no clear path to regulatory approval or proven consumer safety at Level 5 scale .

In California and other states, Tesla is facing delays—robotaxi service lacks approval from DMV and Public Utilities Commission, blocking public ridesharing despite media announcements .

---

✅ Summary Table

Area Status as of August 2025

Autonomy Level 2 (driver supervised); not autonomous

Safety vs. Humans Vastly safer by reported metrics (10×–26× improvement)

Critical Disengagements Progress has slowed; still short of Level 4/5 benchmarks

Fatal Incidents Several lawsuits and hundreds of crash reports—even with regulations

Robotaxi Progress Pilot starting mid‑June in Austin; full public rollout remains uncertain

---

🧠 Final Assessment

Tesla’s Full Self‑Driving (Supervised) system offers a notable safety boost over average human driving—but it still requires continuous human oversight and is far from achieving hands‑off autonomy. While Tesla aggressively pushes toward robotaxi deployment, legal setbacks, regulatory hurdles, and stagnating disengagement metrics suggest broader adoption hinges on improved transparency, hardware, and oversight infrastructure.