To The Moon

Wednesday brings the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, its fifth 2023 report aggregating economic anecdotes from 12 U.S. regions. Covering employment, consumer spending, manufacturing, and more, it’s a crystal ball for Fed policy—will it hint at rate hikes or a pause? The last edition (May) noted “modest” growth, with retail sales up 2% but manufacturing down 1.5% due to supply chain snarls. Labor shortages bit harder, with 60% of firms reporting hiring struggles, and input costs rose 3.8% year-over-year.

This time, watch for inflation signals: are businesses passing costs to consumers? Regional data offers clues—Chicago’s industrial slowdown contrasts with Dallas’s energy boom. GDP context:

Q2 2023 |██████████ 3.1% (Est.)

Q1 2023 |████████ 2.8%

Q4 2022 |███████ 2.5%

Q3 2022 |██████ 2.1%

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week, “Inflation’s sticky, but growth holds firm—we’re data-driven.” Markets price a 40% chance of a July hike. Will the Beige Book tip the scales?

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