To The Moon

📈 Bullish Thesis: Strong Real Metrics & Momentum

1. Q1 2025: Growth at Scale (vs Q1 2024)

• Revenue: $883.9 million, up 39% YoY 

• Net income: $214.0 million, more than doubled YoY 

• Adjusted free cash flow (FCF): ~$370 million (~42% margin), indicating exceptional capital efficiency 

Rule of 40 score: ~83% (growth + margin), massively above the healthy benchmark of 40%  

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2. Full-Year 2024 Momentum

• Annual FCF: ~$1.14 billion, up 64% YoY from 2023’s $697 million 

• TTM operating cash flow: $1.33 billion; capital expenditures negligible ($16 million), fattening the FCF yield  

• Trailing FCF per share: $0.53; grew ~40 % annually over 3 years  

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3. Segment Highlights: AI + Commercial Powering Growth

• U.S. government revenue rose 45% YoY to ~$373 million, backed by sizable Defense and Department of Homeland Security contracts 

• U.S. Commercial revenue surged 71% YoY to ~$255 million—demonstrating rapid expansion beyond government work ()

• This broadening client base boosts visibility for future recurring revenue.

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4. Forecast & Valuation Drivers Pre‑Earnings

• Revenue guidance raised to 36% YoY growth for full 2025, up from consensus 31% 

• Analyst expectations hover around $939–$940 million Q2 revenue (~39% YoY), with EPS forecast ~ $0.14 (→ ~54% YoY)    

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5. Capital Structure & Balance Sheet Strength

• Cash holdings: ~$4 billion, with virtually zero debt, giving it plenty of financial flexibility  

• Strong current ratio (~6 ×) and return on equity ~11%, signaling efficiency and financial stability 

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📊 Why This Outlooks Lean Bullish

Catalyst Area Details

Rule-of-40 outperformance Score ≈ 83% vs typical benchmark of 40%

Top-line and earnings strength Q1 revenue up 39%, profit doubled

High margin, recurring FCF 42% FCF margin, strong free-cash flow generating engine

AI-based monetization scaling Commercial USD business growing 71% YoY from AI deployments

Upgraded guidance ahead of earnings Trims wider Street skepticism; shows conviction

Bleed‑dry of government dependency Customer base diversifying beyond legacy contracts

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🔮 Pre‑Earnings Risk/Reward Setup

• Upside: Beats on AI traction and commercial growth likely to result in higher guidance, upward revisions, and multiple expansion.

• Risk: Valuation remains stretched (e.g., ~70× forward sales in some comps)    . But with built credibility, the high multiple could reflect real long-term optionality.

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🧠 Key Charts to Include (suggested visuals)

1. Revenue & Net Income Trend (Q1 2024 → Q1 2025)

2. Quarterly Free Cash Flow Growth Chart: ~126 → 304 → 370 million, showing acceleration

3. Rule of 40 Score vs Growth/Margin Trend

4. Segment Bar Charts: Government vs Commercial breakdown YoY

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✅ Final Thought

This isn’t speculative hype—it’s grounded in real, quantifiable momentum: exceptional revenue acceleration, record FCF generation, expanding AI-powered client base, and raised full-year guidance. That combination makes a strong case for being bullish heading into earnings.

?@CaptainTiger @Daily_Discussion @MillionaireTiger @CaptainTiger @TigerStars @Wrtd