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MY AMD EARNINGS PREVIEW: WHY THIS QUARTER MATTERS MORE THAN EVER
@ShayBoloor:
$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ I think we’re about to see the most important earnings print in AMD’s history -- not because Q2 will be flawless, but because it’s the clearest test yet of whether AMD’s AI transformation has teeth. The business is evolving fast. And the way the market re-rates this name over the next 12–18 months will hinge on how AMD threads the needle between growth and profitability at a platform scale. Margins Will Dip, but That’s Not the Point Let’s be clear: margins will still be under pressure. Gross margins could fall to 52% due to a mix of high-bandwidth memory costs, 5nm packaging, and ROCm ecosystem investments. That’s to be expected when you’re ramping a next-gen AI platform from scratch. But underneath that margin compression is something far more important -- AMD is starting to price like a leader, scale like a leader, and land contracts like a leader. From Underdog to Platform Contender The MI350 pricing bump from $15K to $25K is a flashing signal to the street. This is no longer a “budget” option to $NVDA Blackwell stack. It’s a viable, competitive product with real performance credentials, being adopted at scale by hyperscalers like $ORCL and major inference users like $TSLA. And it's backed by a growing ROCm ecosystem with better compiler support, Hugging Face integrations, and day-one $META LLaMA 4 readiness. When you combine that with the fact that AMD is already taking CPU share from $INTC on both the client and server side, and layering in rack-scale design capabilities via the ZT Systems acquisition, the strategic picture becomes clearer: AMD is building a full-stack, disaggregated alternative to the vertically integrated AI infra model. The Optionality Is What’s Explosive That’s why I’m more excited about AMD than I’ve ever been. But because the optionality in the model is exploding. GPU revenue could exceed $4B this year. AI as a % of total revenue is rising. The data center segment is approaching 50% of total business. And while consensus still models a trough in Q2, the ramp into H2 looks like the beginning of a multi-year compounding engine -- especially if AMD nails the MI355X launch and reopens MI308X shipments to China. A Re-Rating Moment in the Making? This quarter is less about the numbers and more about whether the market finally accepts AMD as more than a challenger. If management guides Q3 revenue above $8B and shows any signs of margin re-expansion, the market will have to start pricing this company as a legitimate AI infrastructure platform -- one that offers hyperscalers flexibility, pricing leverage, and a non-CUDA path to LLM scaling. That shift in perception, combined with already rising demand for MI-series chips, is what could justify a move toward $200+ over the next 12 months. Bottom line: I don’t expect a melt-up on earnings. The stock is extended, RSI is hot, and any in-line guide could lead to a short-term fade. But this is the first time in AMD’s history where every part of the business -- CPUs, GPUs, software, system design -- is moving in the same direction. Image For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below: 🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly! Find out more here: Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading. 💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉 💰CBA Mini Course 1: What is Cash Boost Account(CBA)?
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