To The Moon

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ 🌐🚀💰 Microsoft smashes $4T ceiling: the AI mega-cycle just got real ~ is Apple or Meta next to join the AI elite?💰🚀🌐

🧠 I’m convinced this is a structural AI rerating

Microsoft ($MSFT) has just shattered the $4 trillion market cap mark; only the second company in history to do so, and I’m not treating this like just another earnings beat. This is an institutional inflection point. Azure’s revenue acceleration, options sweeps into $550 calls, and a 9% after-hours move confirm that market participants are re-pricing Microsoft not on legacy earnings, but on future AI terminal value. With cloud segment revenue up 76.95% since FY2022 and a $30B AI infrastructure capex plan locked in for Q1 FY26, I see this as a vertical breakout in both narrative and numbers.

💸 Full earnings dominance, segment by segment

• Total revenue: $76.4B (+7.5% QoQ), beat by $2.51B

• EPS (GAAP): $3.65, beat by $0.28

• Azure annual run rate: $75B+, +34% YoY

• Intelligent Cloud: $29.9B, up 26% YoY (CAGR 23.1%)

• Productivity & Biz Processes: $33.1B (+50% since FY22, CAGR 15.9%)

• More Personal Computing: $13.5B (+20.5% since FY22, CAGR 7%)

• Capex guide: $30B for Q1 FY26, with cloud and AI buildout in focus

• Backlog: $368B, securing long-term revenue visibility

Azure is no longer a segment; it’s the core thesis. And it’s expanding fast enough to justify Microsoft’s current multiple and more.

🏦 Options flow: institutional intent is clear

• Two aggressive $550C sweeps for 21Nov25 appeared post-earnings

• Total size: $4.54M across 2,002 contracts

• Premiums paid: $22.685 and $22.70 per contract

• SigScore: 0.89, flagged as institutionally relevant

• Spot price: $536.61 and $537.13

This is not retail chasing the gap; it’s institutions scaling exposure on conviction with a Q4 view. Watch for continuation OI at the $575 and $600 strikes.

📈 Technicals validate the breakout thesis

• 4H chart: Riding upper Keltner and Bollinger bands post-consolidation

• RSI(6): 93.31, extreme strength confirmation

• RSI(12): 80.43, sustained momentum continuation

• MACD: Fresh bull cross on accelerating histogram

• Weekly chart: New ATH close at $556.80, well above MA5 ($512.48), MA10 ($494.14), MA30 ($437.01)

• Fibonacci extensions: $555.45 (tagged), $575.12 (1.618), $612.40 (2.0)

• Intraday structure: No fade into close; bulls held ground above $550

This is a textbook trend ignition. All signals confirm a potential multi-week continuation.

📊 Valuation & long-term trajectory

• Forward P/E: 37x, high but justified by 34% Azure growth

• EV/EBITDA: 29.8x

• Cash flow: Strong enough to fund $30B quarterly AI spend without strain

• Free cash flow yield: Estimated at ~2.6%

• Backlog: $368B anchors visibility

• Historical compounding: Revenue grew from $197M in 1985 to $244B in 2024; EBIT scaled from $61M to $107B

• ETF weight: ~10% of $QQQ and $SPY; any inflow mechanically benefits MSFT

• M&A impact: GitHub, Nuance, Activision, OpenAI stake, all part of a decades-long compounding roadmap

Microsoft isn’t just trading at a premium; it’s earning it every quarter.

📉 Meta, Nvidia, and Apple: the AI leaderboard

• Meta ($META): +11% after blowout Q2, monetising AI through ad growth and platform scale

• Nvidia ($NVDA): First to $4T, supplier to hyperscalers like MSFT, META, AMZN

• Apple ($AAPL): Lags with AI strategy still nascent; not yet rewarded by market

• Sector view: AI capex is now the dominant driver of tech multiples. Microsoft is no longer cyclical, it’s foundational

The AI capital cycle is already underway. Microsoft provides the infrastructure, Meta monetises it, Nvidia enables it, and Apple may be racing to catch up.

📍 My execution edge

• Swing buy zone: $540–$545 on low-volume retest

• Stop-loss: $519 (prior range support and 20EMA zone)

• Targets: $575 short-term, $600 per Oppenheimer PT

• Continuation signal: Break-and-hold of $556.80 with above-average volume

• Catalysts ahead: Azure expansion updates, Copilot enterprise metrics, September macro prints, Nvidia earnings feedback loop

I’m treating this as an active long, not a passive hold. The confluence of momentum, positioning, and macro alignment is rare.

🧠 Closing conviction

I’m absolutely convinced we’ve entered phase two of the AI megacycle. Microsoft’s $4T breakout isn’t just a headline; it’s the culmination of four decades of compounding execution, now turbocharged by cloud AI infrastructure demand. Meta may spike, Nvidia may dominate chips, and Apple may one day catch up. But right now, Microsoft is setting the pace for everyone else.

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