To The Moon

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ 🧠💣📈 UNH earnings: one report to move them all 📈💣🧠

I’m interested in UnitedHealth not just as a chart setup, but as a potential macro pivot point for the entire Dow. $UNH carries 3.83% weight in the $DJI, and earnings drop tomorrow pre-market. With options pricing in a ±8.3% move, this isn’t just about healthcare; it’s about sentiment, volatility, and index direction.

Technically, the stock is coiled in a falling wedge while holding the 0.618 Fib retracement at $279.14. The May low of $248.88 marks the final flush after a 44.6% YTD drawdown. Weekly RSI values are depressed (RSI6: 22.46, RSI12: 27.66, RSI24: 33.37), and MACD is turning less negative. On the chart, price compresses under declining MAs, but consolidation has narrowed to a tight zone. The next move may be violent.

I’m analytically optimistic. This isn’t $CNC or $MOH. UNH is integrated: insurance, Optum services, and software/data auditing. Medicare only makes up part of the revenue mix. First quarter rev was $109.58B (+9.8% YoY), net income $6.47B vs a loss last year. UnitedHealthcare beat ($84.62B vs $83.87B est), Optum missed slightly.

Second quarter consensus is $111.53B revenue and $4.48 EPS (LSEG), which would mark a 34% YoY drop. Management already guided full-year EPS down to $26–$26.5 from $29.50–$30. Market was expecting $29.74. But expectations are cratered. Any beat or strong call could ignite a sharp mean reversion.

That brings me to Hemsley. I believe his return as CEO is the real catalyst. He last led the company from 2007 to 2017 and navigated it through the 2008 regulatory transition. UNH traded at $19 during early Obamacare. It’s up over 1300% since, even after the 2025 drawdown. At peak, it had rallied 3000%+ from those levels.

Options drift shows sharp 3DTE premium skew into Aug 1: $1.86M in calls vs $1.32M puts. For 28Jul, the near-term skew is reversed: only $55.7K calls vs $468K puts. Traders are hedging or setting up for a vol crush reversal. Short interest sits at 17.25% with 4.29 days to cover and 1.28M daily short vol. Insider activity matters here. Paul Garcia and John Noseworthy both acquired shares this month.

But this won’t move on numbers alone. The DOJ’s Medicare fraud probe from May, the surprise exit of CEO Andrew Witty, and the earnings miss from Apr 17 (largest drop in 26 years) have weighed heavily. What I find compelling is that Hemsley has done this before. And now, as the macro shifts, tomorrow also brings two 10AM catalysts: CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings. $SPY, $QQQ, and $VIX will all respond, and $UNH could lead.

Analysts remain structurally bullish. Sixty-seven percent rate it Buy or Strong Buy. Target range is wide: low $270, median $372, high $677. Fair value based on long-term mean reversion sits near $496 at the 200W MA. If Stephen delivers clarity, not just guidance, this might be the moment UNH regains market trust.

I’m cautiously constructive heading into the call. The setup is asymmetric. If confidence returns, this may mark the bottom for one of 2025’s most punished names.

Will Stephen Hemsley’s second reign begin with a bang or another body blow?

📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments @Tiger_Earnings @TigerStars @TigerPicks @TigerWire