To The Moon

🤖 Meta vs Microsoft Earnings: Still AI Growth Machines — or Overhyped?

The AI boom has lifted both $META and $MSFT$ to new heights in 2024.

Meta is up +45% YTD, Microsoft nearly +25% — both driven by a mix of real business momentum and AI-fueled optimism. But with Q2 earnings this week, retail investors are asking:

👉 Is the AI story still translating into real earnings — or are these stocks now priced for perfection?

Let’s break down what to watch — and which name might offer better value this quarter.

📘 Microsoft: Steady Compounder or AI Titan?

Microsoft remains the market’s AI bellwether — but expectations are sky-high.

📈 Consensus for Q2:

EPS: $3.38

Revenue: $73.81B (up ~15% YoY)

💡 Key Watch Points:

Azure growth will be scrutinized — last quarter came in at 31%, just above the street

Copilot monetisation still early — any KPIs here could move the stock

Office 365, LinkedIn, and cloud security remain strong enterprise levers

🖥️ But PC and Windows OEM sales may soften again — can cloud offset consumer drag?

MSFT is widely owned and institutionally favored — but the stock is near ATHs. Is the risk/reward still attractive?

📘 Meta: AI Innovator or Ad King?

Meta has been repositioning itself as a leader in AI infrastructure + ad performance, but the core business still drives the P&L.

📊 Consensus for Q2:

EPS: $5.86

Revenue: $44.79B (up ~23% YoY)

What matters most:

📱 Core ad revenue still 98% of sales — growth here must remain in the 20%+ range

🧠 Watch for updates on LLaMA 3, Meta AI, and on-device model rollout

📉 Reality Labs remains a black hole — Q1 loss was nearly $4B

Meta also recently launched its AI-powered search and assistant tools on WhatsApp, Instagram, and Messenger. Will monetisation follow — or are they just flashy demos?

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💸 Are They Still Cheap or Priced for Perfection?

From a valuation lens, both names have rerated significantly in the AI era.

💹 Microsoft

Forward P/E: ~33x

P/S: ~12x

RSI ~61 — not overheated, but close

💹 Meta

Forward P/E: ~28x

P/S: ~9x

RSI ~58 — stable but near upper range

📈 Recent price action:

Both stocks have held strong support zones post-Nasdaq pullback

Institutional flow has favored $MSFT$ more than $META$ in Q2 filings

Bottom line: neither is “cheap,” but Meta looks modestly more discounted — assuming ad revenue delivers.

🤖 AI Edge: Monetisation or Marketing?

The AI narrative has evolved — now it’s about revenue, not just demos.

🧠 Microsoft has clear enterprise traction:

Copilot integrated into Word, Excel, and Teams

GitHub Copilot adoption rising among developers

Azure wins from OpenAI and its own AI workloads

But monetisation is still early-stage — Copilot SKUs are high-margin, but not yet widely deployed.

⚙️ Meta is integrating AI into consumer products:

LLaMA 3 powering Meta AI in chat

AI tools driving ad targeting efficiency

Building its own AI infra (custom silicon, 350K+ H100 GPUs by end-2024)

The real test: do these AI tools boost monetisation metrics — or are they still loss leaders?

💬 Which Is the Better AI Bet Into Earnings?

🧠 If you had to hold one for the next 12 months, which would it be?

📊 Microsoft is the safe compounder — predictable, diversified, and still early in enterprise AI monetisation.

📉 But Meta may offer more near-term upside if ad growth holds and AI tools boost margins.

👉 So what’s your Q2 prediction?

Will both beat — or could one stumble under the weight of AI expectations?

💬 Drop your take — $META$ or $MSFT$: which one are you backing this quarter?

> Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.

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