BBAI : Will it re-Peak soon ?

JC888
07-24

I have covered this technology company specializing in AI-powered decision intelligence solutions - $BigBear.ai Holdings(BBAI)$ since I stumbled upon it a while back.

It has peaked and troughed throughout these times and I have my posts to lock in its history. (see below)

Past Posts.

You could read my past posts on BBAI - about its basics, foundations comparisons:

  • Click here - 06 Mar 2025 - BBAI - Buy on eve of Quarterly Earnings ?

  • Click here - 25 Jan 2025 - BBAI vs C3.AI - Buy one, Sell the other ?

  • Click here - 19 Dec 2024 - BBAI : Nothing bearish about BigBear AI.

  • Click here - 18 Dec 2024 - US Market Rebound & Mirror BBAI's Surge?

  • Click here - 14 Dec 2024 - BBAI the next PLTR ? Buy ? Read & Know !

In This Post.

YTD, BBAI has delivered an impressive +79.32% gain so far. (see below)

As of 22 July 2025

This has been largely driven by investor enthusiasm around AI, government contracts, and growing demand for data-driven decision tools.

The 2024 minted (part of Russell 2000 index) small-cap company, also benefitted from increased visibility among small-cap investors and its recent rally has resulted in BBAI outpacing its fundamentals.

It is still working toward consistent profitability. In the meantime, its revenue growth remains modest compared to other AI peers.

After its big rally, it’s wise to stay cautious unless the company delivers (a) strong guidance or (b) signs major new contracts.

Market Assessment.

BigBear.ai delivers data-driven decision-making tools, mainly serving the US defense, intelligence, and government sectors.

This week, Investment & Research bank, H.C. Wainwright, Analyst, Scott Buck:

  • Has maintained a “Buy” rating on BBAI.

  • Has raised its price target to $9.00 from $6.00.

  • His new target suggests a +16% upside from current levels, as compared to other average analyst consensus, that points to a -25% downside.

  • Highlighted that BBAI’s strong 2025 performance was driven by (a) new customer wins, (b) steady contract growth, and (c) rising demand for AI solutions in defense and security.

Bulls Say, Bears Say

Below provides a balanced view, showcasing both optimistic and cautious takes from Wall Street analysts. (see below)

Case for Bull:

  • Balance sheet improvements.

  • Contract wins.

  • Partnerhsips.

Case for Bear:

  • Gross margin.

  • Guidance / outlook concerns.

  • Revenue performance.

BBAI - A Good Buy ?

With AI continuing to reshape the defense and security landscape, BBAI could play an important role in this evolving landscape.

As of Q1 2025, BBAI has a $384.9 million backlog and mounting traction in areas such as (i) border security, (ii) defense, (iii) intelligence, and (iv) critical infrastructure, BBAI is well positioned for continued growth.

*Note: there remains a small risk that a backlog item could be canceled or not fully realized, so it is not a 100% guarantee of future revenue.

In the past month, BBAI has announced several high-profile initiatives:

  • On 10 Jun 2025, it was reported that BBAI has formed a strategic partnership in the UAE, and a collaboration with Analogic, a leader in imaging, detection, and automation solutions for the security sector. (see below)

  • On 18 Jun 2025, it was reported that BBAI has deployed its biometric software for Enhanced Passenger Processing (EPP) at 12 major international airports and ports of entry, across US and Canada. (see below)

As BBAI does not make a profit, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio can help evaluate its stock value.

Peer Comparison ?

This ratio will be compared to $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ and $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ C3.ai, that have a presence in the government technology sector. (see below)

Based on P/S metric, BBAI and C3.ai are trading at comparable valuations, although BBAI is slightly higher.

Compared to PLTR, BBAI is trading at a deep, deep discount to the AI solutions leader.

Parting question is “do investors want to take advantage of BBAI affordable price now OR wait until it has proven itself” ? However by then, it may no longer be so “affordable”.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

  • Do you think AI will continue to grow from strength to strength ?

  • Do you think now is as best ever a time to load up on BBAI before it soars further ?

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