To The Moon

Intel is expected to post its sixth straight net loss and falling revenue, with cautious guidance for Q3. Investors will focus on roadmap updates, cost cuts, and signs of margin stability. Investors may consider high-volatility options plays like straddles and strangles.

Intel’s Tariff Overhang, Foundry Progress in Focus

Intel is set to report its sixth consecutive net loss after the market closes on Thursday, while revenue is expected to drop for a fifth straight quarter. Intel is expected to report a net loss of about $1.22 billion for the April-June quarter, while its sales are expected to drop more than 6% to $11.88 billion, according to Bloomberg's unanimous expectations. Last year was Intel's first unprofitable year since 1986.

Intel may keep a conservative view for its 3Q outlook, as tariffs cloud 2H demand and pricing visibility. Seasonal demand or better growth in 3Q could provide breathing room, yet there's a slim possibility of a major upside catalyst.

However, Intel is likely to report solid 2Q results relative to expectations, given its already tempered guidance.

Updates on the company'sroad map will be in focus, particularly the PantherLake ramp-up and Clearwater Forest, both key proof points for foundry execution. Commentary on cost reductions, non-core asset divestitures and capital spending plans will be keyfor sentiment.

Margins might stay under pressure for the remainder of the year due to product mix, pricing dynamics and macroeconomic uncertainty. The one-time margin spike in 1Q isn’t likely to reoccur.

Options for Intel

The expected move for INTC options expiring on Jul 25, 2025 (1 days) (w) is ±$1.70 (7.25%), with a price range of $21.76 - $25.16.

Source: OptionCharts

Call open interest expiring this Friday totals 151,409, while puts stand at 98,475 — indicating a bearish tilt among options traders.

Source: OptionCharts

Option Strategy

1. Long Straddle (High Volatility Play)

• Structure: Buy ATM Call + Put ($23.5 Strike, Aug 1 expiry)

  $INTC Straddle 250801 23.5C/23.5P$

• Total Cost: $2.30 per contract

• Breakeven:

  Upside: $25.80 (+9.8%)

  Downside: $21.20 (-9.7%)

Analysis:

Implied volatility (IV) for Aug 1 options is 78.8% , pricing in significant uncertainty.

Risk: High premium cost and potential IV crush post-earnings.

2. Strangle (Lower Cost, Wider Range)

• Structure: Buy OTM Call ($24) + OTM Put ($23)

  $INTC Strangle 250801 23.0P/24.0C$

• Total Cost: $1.84 per contract

• Breakeven:

  Upside: $25.84 (+10.0%)

  Downside: $21.16 (-9.9%)

Analysis:

Cheaper than straddle but requires larger move (±10%) for profitability.

Lower risk of IV crush impact due to OTM positioning.

Key Observations from Data:

High Short Interest: Recent short volume ratios range from 9.6%–18.3% , indicating bearish sentiment.

Analyst Sentiment: Mixed recommendations (40 Hold, 3 Underperform), with a mean target price of $21.73 (7.5% downside).

Capital Flows: Net inflows of $141.5M on July 22 suggest recent bullish momentum.

Risk Management Tips:

Avoid holding positions post-earnings due to IV collapse risk.

Monitor liquidity: Focus on strikes with high open interest (e.g., $20–$25 range).

Consider closing profits quickly if the stock gaps beyond your target range.