To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ 🚀$NVDA: The Relentless AI Apex Predator🚀💸📈🅱️ U͎ L͎ L͎ I͎ S͎ H͎ 

No hesitation. No weakness. Just institutional dominance and algorithmic precision. Nvidia is doing exactly what dominant stocks do at the top of their regime, punishing doubt and rewarding conviction.

🟢 BULLISH ABOVE $159: Trend-Cloud Confirmation

Nvidia’s daily chart shows a clean break from its accumulation range, retesting the $159 level with surgical precision. The TrendCloud flipped green in early June and has steepened, confirming continuous momentum flow. Price now sits above the cloud, breaking $170.70 on strong volume, while $159 has flipped from resistance to launchpad.

📈 Weekly Breakout Anatomy

The weekly candle body has cleared the AB=CD resistance near $168. If bulls hold this level, the next harmonic projection lies at $181.20. Below, the 9EMA sits at $160.15, the 10W MA at $142.80, and the $153 level acts as dual confluence support (previous resistance and Fib). This isn’t just a rally, it’s a structurally sound continuation backed by layered technical validation.

💸 ARK Invest Reaffirms Conviction

Cathie Wood’s ARKX just added to $NVDA, rotating out of $ANSS. This was no token trade, $NVDA is now over 0.14% of the fund, underscoring continued belief in Nvidia’s central role in sovereign AI, data centre buildouts, and hyperscale acceleration. At the same time, ARK dumped $COIN and $ARKB, pivoting out of crypto exposure and deeper into AI infrastructure. This flow matters.

🔬 ASML’s Mixed Report Highlights the AI Divide

ASML delivered a strong Q2 headline: €7.7B in revenue (+23.2% YoY), net profit up 45%, and margin beat at 53.7%. But the Q3 guidance fell short: expected €7.4–€7.9B vs €8.2B consensus. Tariff risks, client CapEx restraint, and softening PC/smartphone demand continue to weigh.

This is where Nvidia diverges. Unlike ASML, Nvidia’s cycle isn’t cooling, it’s accelerating. ASML’s litho systems fuel fabs. Nvidia is the fabless future. The AI workloads aren’t just ramping, they’re institutionalising.

📊 Options & Capital Flow: Still Red-Hot

Last week’s options flow saw 19.5M calls traded, highest of any US stock. Prominent positioning includes:

• Aug $160 calls (deep ITM)

• Sep $130/$140 strike combos

• Bullish credit spreads into Q2 earnings

This isn’t retail gambling. This is directional conviction from funds front-running performance.

⚖️ Valuation Checkpoint

At $170, Nvidia trades just under 43x forward EPS. That’s expensive if you believe AI is peaking. It’s cheap if you understand sovereign AI, $4B–$6B quarterly China revenues from resumed H20 exports, and full-stack enterprise demand. With $54B in annualised data centre revenue projected by year-end, Nvidia’s valuation compression story is just beginning.

⚠️ Risks? Sure. But Context Matters.

Yes, RSI is above 82. But embedded RSI in strong uptrends isn’t bearish, it’s trend confirmation. The only real risk is Nvidia guiding conservatively on Q2 earnings or delays in RTX Pro delivery. But with supply chain tightness easing and capital spend from hyperscalers rising, the setup remains biased north.

🧠 Question:

If Nvidia’s earnings power is no longer linear but exponential, fuelled by sovereign AI demand, model training, robotics, and simulation—how do we define fair value? Should we even be using forward P/E anymore, or are we now in Tesla-style innovation territory?

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