GoldNuggets — Gold Season +Rotation
GoldNuggets Digest: gold price seasonality, gold vs stocks ratio, investor gold allocations, silver price sentiment, commodities vs gold...
Gold Season
The next 3 months historically have been some of the best months of the year for the gold $Gold - main 2508(GCmain)$ price (both in terms of probability of gains and average price change.
Gold vs Stocks
Interestingly, the gold vs stocks ratio made a short-term peak just as it hit that long-term downtrend line, the question from here is whether it goes all the way down to the support (green uptrend) line or makes a break. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
Gold Allocations
Meanwhile, investor allocations to gold remain historically light. Note, this does ignore other ways and means of holding gold (but also equally ignores other assets and portfolio holdings — being that this chart only looks at the ETF market). Still, again it’s interesting to reflect how light allocations are now vs the last big bull.
Silver Sentiment
Silver sentiment continues to trend up, and just today we got another tantalizing touch of the highs. The big question on everyone’s mind is when/whether this uptrend ultimately takes us on to new all-time highs.
Commodities vs Gold
The ratio of my equal-weighted spot commodities price index vs the gold price is offering some bullish clues on the outlook for commodity prices. In the past when commodities significantly underperformed vs gold and then turned up, it portended a new cyclical bull in commodity prices.
This would certainly line up with my recent coverage of rotation prospects in the commodity space (e.g. oil vs gold, copper vs gold).
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