To The Moon

$iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE)$ 🚨‼️🔔📰 BREAKING: President Obama has spoken. The big, beautiful bill has met its match.

🤖🚨🗞️ House Shockwave: MAGA Revolts, Bill Implodes, Markets Brace 🗞️🚨🤖

Imagine this: It’s 03Jul25, 🇳🇿NZ Time, and a political bombshell just hit. Here’s how it could shake the markets. Trump’s MAGA base just collided with Capitol chaos. The much-hyped “One Big Beautiful Bill” has collapsed in the House, blocked by five GOP defectors, killing Trump’s promised July 4 signing ceremony.

The bill promised sweeping corporate tax cuts, deep deregulation, and major incentives for energy and defence. A MAGA dream now up in smoke. With Massie switching his vote on-camera and Trump’s Truth Social blast landing minutes later, Wall Street has barely had time to react, but that window closes fast.

🧨 The Vote That Cracked the Ceiling

• Final tally: 217 Nays, 207 Yeas, 8 Present

• GOP flips: Self (TX), Spartz (IN), Clyde (GA), Massie (KY), Fitzpatrick (PA)

• Massie: “If it goes down, I can’t be a yes.” Tactical, decisive, final

• No Democrat support; Trump’s flagship bill is toast

🔥 Trump Unleashed

“What are the Republicans waiting for??? What are you trying to prove??? MAGA IS NOT HAPPY, AND IT’S COSTING YOU VOTES!!!”

This isn’t just a tantrum, it’s a fracture inside the Republican machine, and the market implications, tax reform, regulatory rollback, fiscal direction, are material.

📈 Overnight Snapshot: SPX Climbs the Wall of Worry

• $SPX closed at 6,227.42, up +0.47%, tagging a new 52-week high

• Futures ($ES_F) hold above 6,281, showing strength but shallow liquidity

• $VIX down -1.13% to 16.64, but $VVIX up to 89.80, a subtle hedge

• $IWM up +0.44%, still holding the 222 handle

• $XLE slightly red at 86.72; tax credit repricing already?

🧠 Volatility Divergence: Calm Outside, Chaos Building Inside

• $VIX measures short-term expected volatility

• $VVIX tracks the volatility of volatility, a favourite hedge for institutions

• When VIX drops and VVIX rises, it’s a warning shot: calm now, chaos later?

• RSI(6) on VIX at 64.33, showing pressure is coiled, not released

• The market may look stable, but the undercurrent is preparing for impact

📊 Rotation Radar: First Movers, First to Flinch

• $IWM: still firm above 221.99, but lacks follow-through. Watch for rejection at 222.40

• $XLE: underperforms overnight. If 86.75 fails, energy may unwind on lost fiscal catalysts

• $LMT, $RTX: defence procurement hopes tied to this bill may fade

• $XLK, $XLF: Tech and Financials also vulnerable if deregulation assumptions erode

• $TLT: Treasuries likely to firm if fiscal optimism unwinds into gridlock

📉 Immediate Risk Lens

• MAGA platform disrupted heading into Q3

• July 4 rally narrative now has no anchor

• Gridlock risk premium rises into Q3 earnings

• If volatility lifts above 17.50, hedges could cascade through macro and factor rotations

• Sector correlation breakdowns likely if $IWM fades while $XLK holds

🔍 Contrarian Insight

Traders focused on $SPX strength may be missing where the cracks are forming. The hedging flows are not in FAANG, they’re in volatility products and tail insurance. If we see SPY lose $544.30 and VIX break above 17.50, institutions may start pulling liquidity from small caps and energy first. That’s where the unwind will begin.

🎯 Key Levels to Watch

• $SPX: 6,184 is critical short-term support, with 6,232 acting as resistance

• $SPY: $544.30 must hold or downside acceleration begins

• $IWM: watch 219.23; break confirms small-cap rotation out

• $XLE: 86.75 is the pivot. Below that, energy loses its fiscal premium

• $VIX: Watch for a sustained close above 17.50 to confirm regime shift

📢 Want the edge? Like, Repost, and Follow for real-time setups and political-market plays like this. I’m hunting the next big mover, let’s stack gains together! 🚀📈

Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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