To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2507(BTCmain)$ 🤖⚔️📈 Liquidity Limbo: SPY Volumes Fade, Bitcoin Blazes 📈⚔️🤖

📈 Net Drift Snapshot ~ 03Jul25, 🇳🇿NZST

Call premium still leads by $600 K in the sub-90 DTE pocket, with calls at $8.77 M versus puts at $8.17 M. Price hugged $619.52 into the close, and the $617 pivot stayed magnetic as desks thinned for the long 4 July weekend.

📊 Jobs Pulse: Tight on Paper, Stress in the Details

• Job openings jumped +374 K to 7.77 M, yet the three-month mean of 7.45 M is the third-lowest in four years

• Openings-to-unemployed ratio ticked up to 1.07, still shy of the pre-COVID norm

• Accommodation and food services surged +314 K, while federal vacancies slid -39 K to 89 K, matching 2020’s trough

📉 Private Payrolls Turn Negative

June printed -33 K against a +98 K forecast, the first sub-zero read since March 2023. May was revised to +29 K.

🧪 Sentiment Flashing Red

Barclays’ Equity Euphoria Gauge hit 10.7 % (long-run mean ≈ 7 %), matching the Dot-com and 2021 meme peaks. Stefano Pascale flags rising volatility risk as $ARKK and zero-profit tech rip higher.

💸 Bitcoin Breaks Free While SPY Volume Dries Up

Holiday lull in equities, crypto party in full swing. $BTC ripped to $109,236.6 (+3.08 %, +$3,266.6) on strong tick momentum, highlighting a liquidity shift as traders skip town.

🧨 Big-Money Hedging Under the Surface

• $620 P 18Jul25 ~ 2,000 contracts, $1.3 M sweep premium

• $530 P 25Jul25 ~ 23,496 contracts, $702.6 K sweep premium

• Persistent flow at the $620 strike signals systematic protection despite record index prints

📊 $SPX Technical Check

• Settled $6,216.08, brushing the new ATH $6,219.83

• Rally from the 08 Apr low of $4,835.04 now totals +24 % in three months

• Weekly MAs stack bullish, RSI stretches north, $VIX sits complacent at 16.70

🧭 Key Levels and Catalysts

• Support $617, resistance $620, breakout eyes $623.60 then $628.10

• Friday NFP will test JOLTS and ADP softness

• Watch Bitcoin’s hold above $108,800 as a sentiment tell

• CPI and earnings season could jolt the low-volatility holiday posture

💡 Contrarian Insight

Retail celebrates fresh highs, institutions quietly load insurance. That monster $530 P sweep looks like calculated volatility cover ahead of mid-July macro catalysts, not a YOLO punt.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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