To The Moon

⚡ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   Dips Below $300: Political Noise or Strategic Entry Point?

$TSLA (Tesla) fell over 6%, slipping below the critical $300 level, following controversial remarks from Donald Trump, who suggested Elon Musk might be "deportable" if he returns to the White House. It’s the latest twist in the ongoing Musk–Trump dynamic, and markets reacted quickly — but is this just political noise or a legitimate threat to Tesla’s value? Let’s cut through the headlines and assess what’s really going on.

📰 News Recap: Musk–Trump Clash Triggers Market Jitters

Over the weekend, Trump reportedly made offhand remarks implying that Elon Musk’s citizenship or immigration history could be "reconsidered" if Trump returns to the White House. The comment, widely seen as retaliation for Musk’s growing political influence and ties to center-right rivals, sent social media into a frenzy. Media framing emphasized: "Clash of titans" narrative between two polarizing public figures, potential future regulatory retaliation or policy friction targeting Tesla or SpaceX, and fears that Musk’s growing political footprint could backfire on shareholders. But how much of this really impacts Tesla’s core business?

📊 Fundamentals Checkpoint: Tesla’s Business Still Intact

Tesla remains an operational juggernaut, despite volatility in its share price. Q2 Revenue (2025 est.): ~$27B. Gross Margins: ~17% (pressured by price cuts but stabilizing). Deliveries: On track for 2.2M units in 2025, up YoY. Valuation: P/E ~60x — rich, but consistent with growth profile. Importantly, no fundamental driver directly justifies the 6% drop. This move appears to be entirely sentiment-based, with no change in deliveries, demand, or forward guidance.

📉 Sentiment & Media Risk: More Smoke Than Fire?

Musk is no stranger to headline risk, and Tesla often trades more like a cult stock than a pure EV business. Musk's brand has historically added volatility, but also enhanced loyalty among investors and consumers. This isn’t the first time political comments have impacted $TSLA — similar drops occurred during SEC clashes and 2022 Twitter drama. That said, if this narrative escalates into regulatory roadblocks or White House-level hostility, it could affect Tesla’s government contracts (e.g., charging infrastructure, subsidies). For now, the threat appears more symbolic than actionable — but worth tracking.

📈 Technical View: $300 in Focus

$300 is both a psychological anchor and a technical support/resistance zone. RSI just fell below 40 — indicating short-term oversold conditions. Tesla now trades slightly below its 50-day MA, with $290 and $270 as the next key levels. Chart Suggestion: Add a 3-month TradingView chart showing RSI trend, $300 support, and volume spike during the drop.

🧭 Strategy Outlook: Add, Hold or Wait?

My take: This is a short-term overreaction to non-fundamental news. 

✅ I'm adding near $290, with a tight stop under $270. 

🧲 Selling cash-secured puts at $270 strike to accumulate more on weakness. 

🛡️ Holding long-term core, but hedging via short-dated puts into election-related headlines. Unless the political rhetoric escalates into concrete policy action, I see this as a strategic dip-buy zone.

🔋 Peer Context: Tesla Still Leading Despite Noise

Compare to sector peers: $NIO Inc.(NIO)$   — Still struggling with demand and margins in China. $RIVN— Improving output, but burning cash and weaker brand loyalty. $BYD — Gaining ground in Asia, but lacks Tesla’s global branding and software moat. Even with Musk’s unpredictability, Tesla remains the EV benchmark — both in scale and profitability.

✅ Final Thoughts

$TSLA is no stranger to drama, and this drop looks more political than financial. While it's smart to stay alert to sentiment risk, the fundamentals remain strong, and $300 may once again prove to be a high-conviction entry level.