To The Moon

We saw major U.S. equities indexes giving mixed performance on the first trading day of the third quarter as the Senate narrowly passed a major tax and spending bill that includes significant tax cuts, reductions in health care and food assistance programs, and increases in national security spending.

Market Performance Overview

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Rose 0.91% to 44,494, led by strength in financials and industrials.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$: Slight dip of 0.11% to 6,198, despite hitting an intraday record high of 6,215.08.

Nasdaq Composite: Dropped 0.82% to 20,202, as mega-cap tech stocks like NVDA, TSLA, and META saw profit-taking.

Russell 2000: Jumped 0.94% to 2,195, signaling strong small-cap momentum.

Sector Rotation & Themes

Winners: Materials, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Homebuilders, Transports, and Casinos surged.

Laggards: Technology and Communications sectors declined, with notable weakness in AI and nuclear stocks.

Notable Moves

Solar stocks rallied on news the Senate may drop excise taxes on renewables.

Auto stocks gained on strong June sales data.

Healthcare names like insulin providers fell due to proposed Medicare payment cuts.

Macro Drivers

Trade optimism: Hopes for a U.S.-China trade deal and Canada’s removal of its digital services tax boosted sentiment.

Fed outlook: Expectations of interest rate cuts in H2 2025 supported risk appetite.

Economic data: May JOLTS job openings beat estimates (7.77M vs. 7.3M), and the S&P Manufacturing PMI hit a 2-year high at 52.9.

Sector-by-sector Breakdown

Here is a sector-by-sector breakdown of how the U.S. market performed on July 1, 2025, the first trading day of Q3:

Sector Performance Snapshot

Key Takeaways

• Rotation into defensives: Staples, healthcare, and utilities saw inflows as investors hedged against tech volatility.

• Small-cap strength: Russell 2000’s outperformance suggests growing risk appetite beyond mega-caps.

• AI fatigue?: After a blistering H1, some AI-linked names cooled off, offering potential re-entry points.

Tech Stocks Performance

In this section, I would like to share the breakdown of how tech stocks performed on 01 July 2025, the first trading day of Q3, as my long-term portfolio consists mostly of tech stocks.

Overall Tech Sector Sentiment

The Information Technology sector underperformed, with the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ falling 0.82%, largely due to profit-taking in mega-cap AI and chip stocks.

Despite the dip, the sector remains up significantly YTD, suggesting this may be a healthy consolidation after a strong H1 rally.

Notable Decliners

Top Performers Within Tech

Key Observations

AI-linked names like $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ saw mixed action with some profit-taking, but long-term momentum remains intact.

Semiconductors were split: memory chipmakers like Micron lagged, while equipment names like Teradyne gained.

Software & Cybersecurity names held up better, with $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ and $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ showing resilience despite losing 3.38% and 4.14% on 01 Jul.

Investor Sentiment

Rotation into defensives: Staples, healthcare, and REITs saw inflows

Profit-taking in tech: AI and chip stocks cooled after a strong H1

Breadth: NYSE advancers outpaced decliners 3:1—broad participation

Technical Setup For Tech Stocks

While we are seeing broad market decline affecting the tech stocks, I think these stocks remain to have some potentials to gain in July, so in this section, I would like to share the breakdown of the technical setups for Nvidia (NVDA) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) as of 01 July 1, 2025, based on the latest available data and chart patterns.

Nvidia (NVDA)

Price: $153.30 (intraday high: $157.20, low: $151.49)

Trend: Still trading ~22% above both 50- and 200-day MAs—bullish continuation.

NVDA is consolidating near highs. A breakout above $159.00 with volume could trigger a move toward $165–$170. However, a failure to hold $154.80 may lead to a short-term pullback to $144.08 if volume fades.

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

Price: $492.07 (July 1 close); projected to reach $555 by end of July

Trend: Trading near upper resistance of a rising wedge (~$482–$510)

CRWD is in a cautious bullish zone. A breakout above $525 could ignite a rally toward $555–$575, but failure to hold $482 may lead to a pullback toward $440.

Summary

On 01 July 2025, U.S. markets opened Q3 on a mixed note. The Dow Jones climbed 0.91% to 44,494 and the Russell 2000 rose 0.94%, driven by strength in financials, industrials, and small caps. The S&P 500 dipped 0.11% to 6,198 after hitting an intraday record of 6,215.08, while the Nasdaq fell 0.82% to 20,202 as mega-cap tech stocks like NVDA, TSLA, and META saw profit-taking.

Sector rotation was evident: materials, healthcare, consumer staples, transports, and homebuilders led gains, while technology and communications lagged. Solar stocks surged on reports the Senate may drop excise taxes on renewables, and auto stocks rallied on strong June sales. Meanwhile, insulin makers declined on proposed Medicare payment cuts.

Investor sentiment was buoyed by optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal and Canada’s removal of its digital services tax. Economic data added support: May JOLTS job openings beat expectations (7.77M vs. 7.3M), and the S&P Manufacturing PMI hit a two-year high at 52.9. Expectations of Fed rate cuts in H2 2025 also underpinned risk appetite.

Overall, the day reflected a shift from tech into defensives and cyclicals, with broad market breadth favoring advancers.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think market would continue on the shift or a short rally is imminent because investors optimism would picked up again.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.