To The Moon

📈 Markets at ATH: How I'm Positioning in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  , and July's Seasonal Surge

With $SPY, $QQQ, and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$   hovering at or near all-time highs, July is kicking off with bullish momentum — but also growing caution. The question every trader is asking:

Do we lean into strength, or start trimming exposure?

Here's how I'm approaching the month based on historical patterns, macro signals, and tactical setups.

📅 Historical Seasonality: July = Strong Bias for Gains

According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P 500 has finished July in the green 45 out of 73 years since 1950 — that's ~62% of the time — with an average return of +1.3%.

This makes July one of the more historically bullish months

Seasonality is especially relevant post-June pullbacks or soft landings, which we saw signs of in May-June 2025

With earnings season approaching, July often becomes a "positioning month" — as traders rotate ahead of Q2 reports.

🌍 Macro Signals in July 2025

Here's what I'm watching this month from a macro lens:

Fed Policy: Still no cut, but rate pause likely holding through September

CPI + Jobs: Inflation is trending sideways; June jobs print showed modest softness — good news for a Fed pause

Earnings Season: Q2 results kick off mid-July — with tech and semis leading expectations

Geopolitics: No major shocks yet, but Taiwan trade tensions are a potential July wildcard

> In short: Macro is neutral to slightly bullish — supporting the case for continuing the trend through July.

🎯 My July Strategy: Tactical and Rotational

I'm leaning cautiously long, but not all-in — and I'm managing exposure based on sector rotation and short-term overbought conditions.

My Key Moves:

✅ Staying long $QQQ: Riding semis + AI tailwind, but keeping stops tight

🟡 Lightened $SPY around 550**: Took partial profits after ATH breakout

🔻 Short $IWM (Russell 2000)**: Betting on small-cap underperformance vs large-cap tech

🛡️ Hedging with Aug puts on $SPY: Volatility is cheap, so protection is inexpensive

Timeframe:

Mostly short-term swing trades (1–3 weeks)

Still DCA-ing into long-term tech ETF holdings monthly

🔍 Technical Levels I'm Watching

Here are my key chart levels as we trade July's breakout momentum:

$QQQ:

Resistance: 550

Support: 540 (breakout retest zone)

$SPY:

ATH near 552

Watching for pullbacks to 540–542 zone

Momentum:

RSI on $SPY near 68 — approaching overbought

MACD still rising = trend confirmation

50-day MA still upward sloping on both $SPY and $QQQ

> 📉 Consider embedding a TradingView/Koyfin snapshot showing the RSI and breakout zones

🛑 Risk Management: Respect the Reversal Risk

At ATHs, euphoria becomes a risk factor. Here's how I'm mitigating it:

✅ Tightened stops on short-term trades

📉 Using put options for tail-risk protection

⚖️ Avoiding leverage into resistance

🧊 Rotating some capital into defensives like $XLV and $XLP if momentum stalls

I'm bullish for July, but August-September volatility could bite, especially if inflation ticks back up or earnings disappoint.

✅ Final Thoughts 

July seasonality is historically bullish, and macro conditions are currently supportive — but valuation and positioning are stretched.

So I'm staying tactically long but prepared to de-risk fast.

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