To The Moon

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$

Goldman Sachs recently issued a notable price target of $83 for Circle Internet Financial, the fintech firm behind the USDC stablecoin. While not yet public, Circle's potential IPO — previously expected to debut in 2024 or early 2025 — continues to generate buzz across Wall Street, especially amid mounting pressure on crypto-related assets and a shifting macro backdrop.

But as digital asset sentiment cools and stablecoin competition intensifies, many investors are asking: is Goldman’s bullish $83 valuation grounded in fundamentals, or does it reflect misplaced optimism in a fading crypto hype cycle? Should investors be preparing to buy into the eventual IPO dip — or remain skeptical of any post-listing rally?

In this article, we examine the rationale behind Goldman’s price target, the current state of Circle’s fundamentals, the evolving regulatory landscape, and whether this projected valuation holds water in today’s environment. We’ll also break down the investment case into actionable insights for investors weighing a potential long or short position.

Circle's Road to Wall Street: Where It Stands

A Delayed But Anticipated IPO

Circle first announced plans to go public via SPAC in 2021 at a projected valuation of $4.5 billion, later revised up to nearly $9 billion before the deal fell through in 2022. Since then, Circle has reiterated its intention to go public through a traditional IPO when market conditions improve.

Goldman Sachs, one of Circle’s key financial partners and stakeholders, has now placed an $83 per-share target on the company, implying a valuation north of $25 billion, depending on final share count. That’s a bold bet in a market where Coinbase (COIN), the largest public crypto exchange, trades at just under $50 billion — despite far more diversified revenue streams and higher visibility.

What’s Behind Goldman’s Price Target?

Goldman’s bull thesis is reportedly based on several key drivers: Circle’s dominant share in the stablecoin market via USDC, strategic banking relationships, strong compliance posture in a fragmented industry, and the potential for broad adoption of regulated digital dollars globally.

However, this optimistic view clashes with a sobering reality: USDC’s market share has shrunk, revenue from stablecoin reserves is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, and regulatory uncertainty continues to plague the space.

Stablecoin Sector: Consolidation, Regulation, and Revenue Risks

USDC's Shrinking Market Share

USDC was once hailed as the future of digital dollars — a fully-backed, transparent, and regulator-friendly alternative to Tether (USDT). At its peak in 2022, USDC commanded over 35% of the stablecoin market. As of mid-2025, that figure has dropped below 20%, according to data from DefiLlama and The Block.

Most of this decline has come at the hands of Tether, which remains the dominant stablecoin globally, despite ongoing concerns about its transparency and reserve quality. Compounding the issue, PayPal, Ripple, and Visa have all announced plans to launch their own tokenized dollars, adding further competition to Circle’s core product.

Interest Income: A Double-Edged Sword

Circle generates a significant portion of its revenue from interest earned on reserves backing USDC — mostly short-duration U.S. Treasuries. This model was highly lucrative in 2023 and 2024 as interest rates climbed, but any Fed rate cuts — now expected as early as Q4 2025 — could materially reduce earnings power.

This leaves Circle highly exposed to macro policy shifts. Unlike fintechs with diversified income streams (e.g., Stripe, PayPal), Circle remains heavily reliant on yield from reserves — a fragile foundation for a long-term growth thesis.

Three Core Risks Behind the $83 Price Target

1. Regulatory Uncertainty While Circle has proactively engaged with regulators and even applied for a U.S. banking license, the current environment remains unstable. Congress has yet to pass comprehensive stablecoin legislation, and Circle may be subject to new capital, disclosure, or custody requirements that could eat into margins.

2. Customer Concentration and B2B Dependence Circle’s reliance on a small set of B2B clients (exchanges, fintechs, payment platforms) makes it vulnerable to sudden revenue shocks. If just a few major partners shift to using alternative stablecoins — or internal token solutions — USDC velocity and fee capture could drop quickly.

3. IPO Execution Risk and Lock-Up Volatility IPOs for crypto-linked firms remain volatile. Coinbase, Robinhood, and others have experienced post-listing whiplash. Circle’s potential listing, especially at Goldman’s ambitious $83 level, could face selling pressure from early investors and insiders post-lockup.

5 Key Insights for Investors

1. Goldman’s $83 Target May Reflect Strategic Interests As an early backer and strategic advisor, Goldman Sachs could have skin in the game — and an incentive to support a high valuation to attract institutional investors and support the IPO.

2. USDC Faces an Uphill Battle to Reclaim Market Share While Circle’s compliance-first approach has earned regulatory goodwill, it hasn’t helped win back users or developers. Tether and newer entrants are increasingly dominant in high-volume DeFi protocols and cross-border settlements.

3. Rate Sensitivity Shouldn’t Be Ignored The bulk of Circle’s income is tied to interest on reserves. If the Fed starts cutting rates by late 2025, Circle’s top-line could decline sharply, reducing its intrinsic valuation relative to earnings and cash flow.

4. Valuation Comparables Suggest Caution Using Coinbase as a benchmark (despite its different business model), Circle at a $25–30B implied valuation feels aggressive. Especially when stablecoin flows are declining and competition is heating up.

5. Wait for IPO Pricing and Lock-Up Expiry Investors should be cautious of entering any Circle position near IPO highs. If historical patterns hold, a better entry point may emerge 3–6 months post-listing, once early holders are allowed to sell and price discovery stabilizes.

Valuation Reality Check: Stretching the Bull Case?

Let’s reverse-engineer Goldman’s $83 target.

Assume:

• 200 million shares outstanding

• Implied valuation: $16.6 billion

Now factor in:

• 2024 estimated revenue: ~$1.2 billion (mostly from reserve interest)

• Net income margin: ~20% (aggressive, given costs)

• Forward earnings: ~$240 million

• Implied P/E: ~69x

This is a lofty multiple for a company in a commoditized segment of the crypto market with declining user adoption. Even with growth potential, it would require either sustained high interest rates or a successful pivot into broader B2B financial infrastructure to justify.

The Bull vs. Bear Debate: Who’s Right?

The Bull Case:

• Circle is the most regulatory-aligned player in the stablecoin arena

• Huge TAM for tokenized dollars in global commerce and cross-border B2B finance

• USDC could benefit from upcoming U.S. legislation as the de facto “approved” stablecoin

• Potential to monetize wallet services, APIs, and FX infrastructure beyond just stablecoins

The Bear Case:

• Peak stablecoin demand may have already passed

• Rising competition from fintechs and even central banks (CBDCs)

• Overreliance on interest income in a declining rate cycle

• Lack of user engagement compared to DeFi-native coins and platforms

Conclusion: Watch the IPO, But Don’t Chase the Hype

Goldman Sachs’ $83 price target for Circle is an ambitious call that reflects optimism about the future of regulated digital dollars. But the reality on the ground — from shrinking USDC dominance to looming rate cuts and regulatory uncertainty — paints a more cautious picture.

While Circle has done an admirable job positioning itself as the "grown-up" in the stablecoin room, investors should be wary of extrapolating past growth into future profits — especially with so many moving parts in the crypto and fintech policy space.

For now, the smart move is to:

• Monitor the IPO timing and pricing details

• Wait for post-listing volatility to play out

• Evaluate how Circle performs in a lower-rate, higher-competition environment

Key Takeaways:

• Goldman’s $83 target implies a premium valuation that may not reflect current market share or earnings power.

• USDC is shrinking in relevance while competitors gain ground.

• Circle’s earnings are vulnerable to interest rate cuts and concentrated partner risk.

• Regulatory tailwinds could help — but timing and scope remain uncertain.

• Most investors should treat the IPO as a watchlist item, not a buy-the-dip moment — at least not yet.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

@Daily_Discussion @TigerPM @TigerObserver @Tiger_comments @TigerClub