To The Moon

🚀 $NVDA to $4 Trillion: Still a Buy at This Level?

The AI kingpin $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   (Nvidia) is closing in on an astonishing $4 trillion market cap, sparking one of the hottest debates in the investing community: Can this tech juggernaut keep sprinting higher? Or is it time to cool off?

For those of us who started accumulating below $100 — I personally began building my position in mid-2020 around $95, right after the Mellanox acquisition started bearing fruit — this moment is both validating and nerve-wracking. Let's dig into Nvidia's long-term potential and whether it’s still a buy at this valuation.

🧠 Nvidia's Growth Story and AI Dominance

Nvidia’s transformation from a gaming GPU company into a full-stack AI infrastructure powerhouse is the cornerstone of its meteoric rise. The $4T hype isn't just speculative — it's grounded in the company’s strategic control of the AI compute stack:

Data Center Dominance: Over 80% market share in AI accelerators with H100 and A100 GPUs dominating hyperscale deployments

CUDA Moat: Nvidia’s proprietary CUDA software ecosystem creates massive switching costs. Developers are locked in.

Historical Moves: From acquiring Mellanox (2020) for high-speed interconnects to its push into Arm-based CPU integration and Hopper/Blackwell GPUs, Nvidia is vertically integrating its AI stack.

As AI models grow more compute-intensive, Nvidia’s position as the arms dealer of this AI revolution continues to look unshakable — for now.

📊 Fundamentals Check

Let’s run through some numbers to see what’s backing this monster valuation:

Market Cap: ~$3.3T (as of June 2025) — knocking on the $4T door

Revenue (TTM): ~$90B

Net Income: ~$44B

EPS (TTM): ~$16

Forward PE: ~50x

PEG Ratio: ~1.6 (suggests the valuation is high, but not absurd given the 30–35% expected CAGR)

🆚 Peer Comparison: $NVDA vs. $AMD and $AVGO

$NVDA (Nvidia)

Forward P/E: ~50x

EPS Growth: ~30–35%

Data Center Exposure: High (Industry-leading in AI GPUs)

$AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

Forward P/E: ~37x

EPS Growth: ~22%

Data Center Exposure: Growing (MI300X gaining traction)

$AVGO (Broadcom)

Forward P/E: ~30x

EPS Growth: ~15%

Data Center Exposure: Moderate (Focus on custom silicon and infrastructure)

Nvidia still commands a premium — and arguably deserves it, given its software moat + first-mover lead in AI.

📈 Technical Chart Snapshot

Nvidia’s chart shows classic strong-trend behavior, but also signs of short-term exhaustion.

Support Levels: $135–140 (recent breakout base), $180 (longer-term support)

Resistance: Approaching psychological barrier at $150

RSI: Near 70 — slightly overbought

50/200 MA: Golden Cross confirmed — long-term trend remains bullish

> 📉 Embed Suggestion: Add a TradingView or Koyfin 6-month chart here with RSI, 50/200 MA, and key levels marked.

Unless the broader tech market corrects, Nvidia could consolidate between $135–$150 before making a new push toward $180–$200.

🧳 Long-Term Investor Reflection

As someone who DCA’ed into $NVDA starting at ~$95, I’ve held through the volatility, believing in its 20-year compounder potential. Here’s why:

AI is not a trend — it’s a platform shift as significant as mobile or the internet.

Nvidia is building mission-critical infrastructure for that shift.

Even if margins compress, secular growth in AI inference + training workloads will continue to drive demand.

If you zoom out, we may just be in chapter two of a multi-decade growth story.

⚠️ Risks to Consider

Even giants have weak spots:

Valuation Stretch: Trading at 50x earnings, Nvidia must consistently deliver 30%+ growth

Geopolitical Exposure: China restrictions on AI chip exports could dent revenues

Custom Silicon Threat: Big tech (Amazon, Google, Meta) is developing in-house AI chips. While not a near-term threat, it could erode pricing power over time

Still, Nvidia has weathered competition before and may do so again — by staying one step ahead.

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