To The Moon

$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$ 📈 SOFI ripped to $18.92 today, front-running my $18.15 entry, then kissed the 0.786 Fibonacci ceiling on volume so loud it felt like the floor of the NYSE. Cathie Wood scooped 2.3 M shares, shorts are boxed in, options premiums are ballooning, and 64 global rate cuts are adding rocket fuel.

⚡🚀🎯 SOFI’s Fintech Flywheel, From Member Surge to Margin Muscle 🎯🚀⚡

📰 Fundamental Flywheel

• Members exploded from 1,204,450 in Q2 2020 to 10,915,911 today, roughly 60% CAGR.

• Revenue climbed from $231 M in Q2 2021 to $772 M in Q1 2025.

• Contribution profit hit $418 M, and GAAP net income flipped positive at $71 M; margins now sit at 51%, 27%, and 9.2%.

• 4 consecutive top-line and bottom-line beats, with guidance raised every quarter.

• Fresh blockchain remittances let users move USDC and USDT round the clock, fully covered by OCC Letter 1184.

🔥 Capital Flow and Sentiment

• ARK’s $38.9 M buy shows Wood is early, not reckless.

• Short interest stands at 148.1 M shares, 13.7% of float, with 2.3 days to cover; a push over $19 can ignite forced buying.

• A whale swept January 2027 $25 calls, and July $20 open interest has doubled, leaving dealers short gamma above $19.

🛠️ Technical Pulse

Weekly candles punched through $16.31, tagged $18.92, and paused at $18.83. Weekly MACD just flipped positive, and RSI at 79 can ride high for weeks when volume confirms. A compact 4-hour bull flag is coiling; a closing burst of volume would launch a quick move to $20.16, then $22.76.

🌐 Macro Tailwinds

• 64 central-bank cuts this year steepen curves and trim SoFi’s funding bill.

• A resilient labour market plus easing inflation keeps credit demand firm.

• Stable-coin-friendly rules widen the addressable market while legacy banks still price transfers like it is 1999.

🕵️ Hedge-Fund and Analyst Lens

Needham reiterates Buy with a $20 target, calling member monetisation category-defining. Stephens rates Overweight at $20, citing a funding-cost edge. J P Morgan holds Neutral at $16 after 71% year-over-year EPS growth. Deutsche Bank stays at Hold on $14, labelling valuation fair. Street average sits at $14.05, yet smart money leans long, a classic under-reaction.

🤔 Contrarian Insight

About 68% of new members are under 30 and stay for 7 years on average. With the share price still at a single-digit revenue multiple, investors are effectively picking up a cheap call option on that lifetime cash-flow stream. Bears are silent because the maths speaks louder.

🗺️ Watchlist

• Price: keep $16.30 intact; a weekly close above $18.83 unlocks $20.16 and $22.76.

• Options: track July $20 and January 2027 $25 open interest for fresh conviction.

• Macro: Fed minutes tonight and ISM Services on Thursday; any dovish hint or demand upside extends SoFi’s runway.

🎲 Forward Scenarios

• Bull, 60% probability: a weekly settle above $19 squeezes shorts toward $25 by Q4.

• Base, 30% probability: price ranges between $16 and $20 while RSI cools; I reload near the 10 week moving average around $15.

• Bear, 10% probability: a hawkish shock or fintech scare drops us below $14; I hedge with staggered $14 and $12 put spreads.

🛡️ Risk Matrix

Regulatory reversal on crypto, consumer-credit cracks, or cross-sell fatigue could cap the multiple; I track those daily.

🖼️ Visual Blueprint

• Stacked-area chart of members versus revenue

• Margin waterfall from contribution to net income

• Heat map of open-interest clustering around $20

🔑 Actionable Takeaways

I am holding every share until RSI diverges or volume fades. Income seekers can sell August $16 puts that annualise above 22%. Swing traders can ladder August $20 calls on dips. Long-term investors may accumulate below $15 while eyeing eventual S&P 500 inclusion.

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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