To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 

Liquidity, Legislation, and Launchpads 🚀📈✨

29Jun25, 🇳🇿NZ Time

🌟 Context Snapshot: Trump’s $4.5T Catalyst

The Senate’s razor-thin 51-49 vote has set Trump’s $4.5 trillion "Big Beautiful Bill" onto a trajectory likely to reach the Resolute Desk by July 4. Despite Democrats’ stall tactics, forcing a tedious, 15-hour, word-for-word Senate floor reading, the bill’s momentum remains robust. Musk’s immediate response, branding it as “insane,” underscores high-stakes division around the bill’s expansive corporate relief.

💹 Global Macro: Diverging Monetary Paths

64 global rate cuts year-to-date create a liquidity-rich environment internationally, yet the Federal Reserve firmly holds its 4.25–4.50% stance. This divergence pushes yield-hungry capital into US equities, particularly mega-cap tech. Simultaneously, bond markets react with caution, with the US 10-year yield edging higher, reflecting market apprehension around potential inflationary pressures from expansive fiscal policies.

🔍 Institutional Flows: Whales at Play

Dark pool data indicates substantial accumulation of Nvidia ($NVDA) and Tesla ($TSLA), notably from quant giants Renaissance Technologies and Bridgewater. Tiger Global significantly increased its Nvidia exposure by 3% last month, shifting capital from smaller AI peripherals directly into core mega-cap holdings, emphasizing high institutional conviction.

⚙️ AI Infrastructure: Semiconductors in Spotlight

Nvidia’s future looks exceptionally bullish as Trump’s tax bill explicitly incentivises semiconductor manufacturing and infrastructure spending, promising accelerated adoption of NVDA’s DGX Cloud and AI hardware. With Micron’s upcoming earnings acting as a critical litmus test, robust guidance could amplify Nvidia’s rally towards historical Fibonacci extension levels at approximately $175.

📈 Advanced Technical Analysis & Fibonacci Setups

Nasdaq 100 closed at 22,534.20, hitting fresh highs, bolstered by strong breadth (72% above 50-day MA), RSI at 71, and bullish MACD signals. Nvidia ($157.75) is navigating a rising wedge; key Fibonacci extensions at $165 and $175 represent critical upside resistance. Tesla ($322.71) faces immediate Fibonacci retracement support at $303 and resistance zones near $336 and $362.

📊 Options & Gamma Insights

Options market activity reveals aggressive call sweeps, particularly Nvidia’s deep OTM calls, amassing over $120 million premium. Tesla’s weekly $425 calls traded quadruple open interest post-robotaxi announcement, signaling heavy dealer gamma exposure around the $350–$400 range. The put/call ratio notably plunged after the Senate vote, indicating heightened bullish sentiment.

🎯 Analyst & Hedge Fund Heatmap

Goldman Sachs elevated Nvidia’s target to $165 (bull scenario $250), citing robust DGX Cloud adoption. Morgan Stanley remains confident with Tesla at $410 (bull scenario $475), while Benchmark projects a bullish case of $550, contingent on rapid robotaxi monetization.

📆 Seasonal & Historical Perspective

Historically, the Nasdaq registers significant upside momentum in early July, amplified during liquidity-abundant years. FactSet forecasts consensus EPS upside for Nvidia and Tesla exceeding analyst benchmarks, supported by strong monetization strategies in AI infrastructure and robotaxis, respectively.

🎲 Comprehensive Scenario Analysis

   •   Bull Case (60%): Senate finalizes bill by July 4, Nasdaq surges 5-7%, Nvidia tests $175, Tesla breaks above $362.

   •   Bear Case (30%): Bill stalls, yield spike triggers Fed hawkish pivot, Nasdaq retraces to 21,700, NVDA retests $144 support.

   •   Wildcard (10%): Unexpected Fed rate cut induces liquidity melt-up, surpassing current price targets.

📌 What to Watch Closely

   •   Senate procedural votes & potential amendments

   •   Global PMI data for demand insights

   •   FOMC minutes on Quantitative Tightening stance

   •   NVDA and TSLA call option flows near key gamma strikes

   •   AAII Sentiment Index and Fear & Greed gauge post-Senate decision

⚠️ Risk Radar & Contrarian Views

Potential antitrust scrutiny on mega-cap tech buybacks remains underappreciated. Additionally, emerging competition from specialized AI firms such as Groq or Cerebras presents a longer-term strategic challenge. Fed language becoming unexpectedly hawkish poses immediate downside risk.

🔥 Trader’s Conviction & Actionable Levels

I have personally positioned overweight in Nvidia and Microsoft, maintaining core Tesla exposure. I’ve initiated a strategic QQQ call spread targeting Nasdaq 23,250 by July-end. Stop-loss orders are positioned 5% below immediate support levels to manage risk prudently.

🌟 Ultimate Conclusion: High Conviction Outlook

The combination of global liquidity influx, targeted fiscal stimulus from Trump’s expansive tax bill, and accelerating AI monetization strategies sets the stage for a powerful, liquidity-driven rally in mega-cap tech. Vigilance on Fed communications and macroeconomic developments remains critical, but my core thesis anticipates further record-breaking performance into July earnings season.

📢 Your Move: Engage & Prosper

Which scenario resonates most with your view of July’s market trajectory? Comment your top conviction tech names, I’m keen to discuss strategies!

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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