To The Moon

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 29Jun25 🇳🇿NZST. Circle’s 25 % draw-down arrived just as Washington locked its rivals out. I’m redeploying capital at $180 where wallet growth is accelerating, reserve yield is still rich, and the float remains scarce, giving me an asymmetric upside profile!

🤖🚀⚡ Circle’s Compliance Crown, 180 USD Ambush, and the Wallet Wave Ahead ⚡🚀🤖

📈 Technical Setup

CRCL closed the week at 182.88 after touching 300. My 2-HR chart is printing a cup and handle inside a rising trend line that has guided price since listing. The 180 handle aligns with anchored VWAP from 05 Jun, the 38.2 % Fibonacci retrace of the vertical leg, and the handle floor. Relative strength cooled from 85 to 52, the moving-average-convergence-divergence just crossed higher, and on-balance volume hardly moved, signalling quiet accumulation. Options confirm the tape: deep in-the-money July 200 calls led premium flow on 27 Jun, typical of delta hedging rather than directional shorts. Short shares available stayed between 95 k and 150 k through the slide, no bear stampede.

🏦 Fundamental Context

Circle issues USDC, the world’s second-largest dollar-backed stablecoin with roughly 60.1 B USD in float and 4.9 M wallets, up 276 % over three years. Revenue printed 1.68 B in 2024, net income 156 M. Even after the pull-back, the market capitalisation is about 43 B, roughly twenty-nine times trailing sales, a premium that prices rapid wallet expansion and fee growth.

📰 Regulatory Lens

The Senate passed the GENIUS Act on 17 Jun, writing one-to-one cash or Treasury backing, monthly attestations, and annual audits into federal law. Circle already satisfies those rules, so compliance costs stay low while rivals scramble. House leaders added the bill to the late-July docket, which sets a clear catalyst.

Seaport Research initiated coverage of Circle (CRCL) with a Buy rating and 235 USD price target, telling investors that the firm views Circle as “a top-tier crypto ‘disruptor’ with a sizeable future opportunity.” Seaport expects global adoption of stablecoins such as USDC, Circle’s flagship product, to grow rapidly from here on the back of an improving regulatory climate, adding that it sees the stablecoin “market cap” growing from roughly 260B today to potentially reach 2T over the longer-term. The firm sees Circle generating annual revenue growth of 25%-30% as this occurs, with the ability to drive operating leverage as it scales further, and believes shares merit “a premium valuation.”

📊 Analyst and Fund Flow

Compass Point holds a neutral stance with a 205 USD target, warning on valuation froth. ARK Invest bought 4.48 M shares on day one and has only trimmed a fraction, keeping heavyweight sponsorship on the register. Dark-pool prints surged on the dip, suggesting institutions are reloading, not bailing.

🌐 Macro Backdrop

Futures price a 70 % chance of the first Federal Reserve cut by September with two cuts in total for 2025. Each 25 bp trim lowers Circle’s reserve income roughly 4 %, but Treasury bills roll every ninety days, so a September cut would not hit earnings until December. Meanwhile, rising Treasury issuance keeps collateral yields supported.

👀 Forward Watchlist

• House timetable for the GENIUS Act vote, pencilled for the week of 29 Jul

• Weekly wallet count on Circle’s dashboard, a print above five million is my trigger to add

• Federal Reserve minutes and CPI releases that can shift cut odds and reserve yields

• Any hint that Coinbase renegotiates its revenue-share split, upside if favourable

• July open-interest clusters, 200-260 calls carry the heaviest gamma and can fuel squeezes

💡 Action Plan

I’m layering bids from 180 to 174 with a mental stop under 165. First trim zone sits at 225 where the handle neckline meets the eight period exponential moving average on the daily. A confirmed break under 165 sends me to the sidelines, next support is anchored VWAP near 150. For controlled leverage I prefer the 16 Aug 200-260 call spread at a single-digit debit.

🔥 Conclusion

Can Circle revisit $100? Only if three bearish forces align: the House blocks the GENIUS Act, wallet growth stalls under five million, and the Fed cuts more aggressively than the curve expects. That triple threat is not in play. The current pull-back looks like a measured reset after a vertical sprint, not the start of a collapse. Unless we slice below 165 on large volume, I’m treating 180 as an ambush zone, targeting 225 then 260, with 300 back on the map if the House delivers clarity and wallets keep climbing.

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