To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ $Pony AI Inc(PONY)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 🤖🚀🌟 Uber’s Quantum Pony ~ Platform, Profit, and the Push for Autonomous Supremacy 🌟🚀🤖

28 Jun 25, 🇳🇿 NZ Time

Wall Street may still chase Tesla’s robotaxi dream, but Uber is quietly building the toll roads for the entire AI transportation ecosystem. With capital-light autonomy, platform dominance, and margin-rich leverage from ads and scale, Uber isn’t just a passenger in the future of mobility; it’s the dispatcher.

Uber last traded 91.53 post market on 27 Jun 25, touching a high of 92.51. Here’s my high-conviction playbook and valuation thesis.

📊 Fundamental Engine

• Revenue 11.5 B (+14 % YoY reported)

• Gross Bookings 42.8 B (+18 % YoY constant-currency, +14 % reported)

• Trips 3.0 B (+18 % YoY)

• Mobility 21.2 B, Delivery 20.4 B, Freight 1.3 B (−2 % YoY reported)

• Adjusted EBITDA 1.87 B (rounded from 1.868 B), 4.4 % of Gross Bookings vs 3.7 % YoY

• Free Cash Flow 2.3 B, Cash 6 B, Undrawn Revolver 5 B

• Ads Annual Run-Rate 1.5 B+, > 60 % YoY growth, high-margin (estimated 65 %+ industry average)

• Q2 Guide: Gross Bookings 45.75 B – 47.25 B, EBITDA 2.02 B – 2.12 B

💰 Valuation Check

EV/Sales ≈ 3.0× vs 5-year peer median 3.7×, MAG-7 average 5.2×

EV/EBITDA 18× vs DoorDash 24×, Tesla 30×

Blended platform model with high-velocity earnings and monetisable rider intent justifies re-rating to 3.5 – 4.0× EV/Sales in the next 12 months

🤖 Autonomy & Partnership Stack

• Volkswagen: 480 ID Buzz AVs slated for LA in 2026 as phase one of multi-thousand unit rollout

• Waymo: doubling fleet coverage in Phoenix and San Francisco into 2026

• Pony.ai: Global fleet ~300 Robotaxis. If Uber moves on the US arm, CFIUS review looms. $PONY spiked +4.9 % on 27 Jun 25 amid merger speculation

• Other pilots: WeRide and May Mobility confirmed. Uber’s open AV API enables integration with multiple vendors, though Aurora and Motional are not yet confirmed participants

• Hybrid model: Human drivers handle weather, edge, and surge. AVs serve urban cores. Margin scales with autonomy, but platform retains full adaptability

⚠️ Treat Pony as optionality, not core. Any deal is contingent on regulatory clearance and AV integration timelines.

📉 Macro Guard-Rail

• Per BofA: 3 % drop in US work hours reduces ride volume by ~5 – 6 %

• Delivery segment typically offsets 30 – 40 % of that impact

• Cash and FCF buffer Uber for ~24 months of capex and interest without dilution or emergency credit

📈 Technical Blueprint

• Weekly breakout confirmed 26 Jun 25 above 94.38 on 11.4 M volume

• Current price 91.30, 8-week EMA support 88.00

• Fibonacci pivots: 85.05, 79.28, 74.61, 69.94

• RSI 63, MACD positive, OBV at record high

• Golden cross: 50-day SMA 87.70 has overtaken the 200-day at 74.80

• Measured move target from breakout: 100 – 101

🎯 Scenario Lens

• Bull Case 55 %: Q2 beat, Ads > 1.7 B, VW ramp, Pony clears → 100 – 110

• Optionality Case 15 %: Strong core, no Pony → 97 – 105

• Base Case 20 %: AVs lag, macro neutral → 85 – 100

• Bear Case 10 %: AV incident, Pony blocked, macro weakens → 65 – 85

🛡️ Risk Matrix & Mitigations

• CFIUS Block: Minority stake or IP carve-out as workaround

• AV Backlash Risk: Any incident could delay rollout, but Uber’s vendor-agnostic hybrid network prevents revenue cliff

• Regulatory Risk: Prop 22 shields California; other regions remain in flux. Driver AV mix dilutes long-term cost base

• Consumer Weakness: Ads and delivery stabilise revenue through downturns

• Platform Bypass Threat: Tesla or Waymo could integrate vertically, but Uber counters with dense rider base, advertising monetisation, and API ubiquity

📌 Actionable Playbook

• Core entry zone 88 – 90, swing add near 85.05

• Exit swing trade on breakdown < 85, or long-term position < 79.28

• Call spread: Buy August 100s, sell August 110s, hedge with August 80 put

• Bull breakout confirmed > 94.40 with volume. Target: 100 – 110

🧠 Contrarian Insight

Tesla builds the car. Waymo builds the driver. Uber dominates rider access, routing logic, and monetisation at the edge. Even flawless FSD must still win users, city permits, and customer service at scale. Uber’s moat is that it’s already embedded in the habit loop of 170M+ monthly users.

🧾 Analyst Targets

Morgan Stanley 115, BofA 110, RBC 94, Canaccord 84, Stifel 100

Street consensus: 102, implying +11.7 % upside from 91.30

💸 Conclusion

Uber isn’t just growing; it’s compounding. The company’s current margin expansion, explosive ad growth, and capital-light autonomy strategy put it in the crosshairs of both AI and mobility capital flows. Autonomy isn’t required for the bull case; it’s just the torque.

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