To The Moon

$Madrigal Pharmaceuticals(MDGL)$ $Vaxcyte, Inc.(PCVX)$ 🚨💊🔥 Perfect MASH Buyout Candidate, $MDGL Cash Machine in Plain Sight 🔥💊🚨

27 Jun 25, 🇳🇿 NZ Time

I first mapped a $25 B 2030 revenue path for $MDGL back in March, well before today’s tape caught up. Price is now up 5.94 % on volume acceleration, a classic tell that smart money is leaning in. My conviction then and now rests on a deep dive into Rezdiffra’s market potential and an early read of technical momentum the street missed.

💡 Technical Read, Momentum Building

Last print $294.12, rebound from the $265 low with buy-side volume expanding. MA5 285.78, MA10 292.43, MA20 311.07, MA30 313.88; today’s first close above the 10 day line signals short term bear pressure is fading. Custom trend gauges, DMA spread AMA 16.98 and DDD −0.8626, show slope flattening, hinting at an imminent trend reversal. RSI6 49.55, RSI12 47.61, RSI24 50.22 reveal bullish divergence as price made lower lows while momentum held flat. MACD DIF −5.1170, DEA −0.6701 just printed the first green histogram bar at −8.8938, confirming waning sell momentum.

🧬 Rezdiffra Revenue Engine

Rezdiffra is the first therapy with both FDA and EMA approval for MASH, a disease affecting more than 17 M U.S. adults and millions globally. The EMA positive opinion on 20 Jun 25 clears the way for European launch within months. Visible Alpha projects $4.4 B annual sales by 2030 and nearly $5 B by 2031. Q1 25 already delivered $137.3 M net sales from about 17 000 treated patients, and prescription checks show rapid first line adoption.

🏹 Big Pharma Circles Tighten

Over the past four years $BMY, $PFE, and $MRK have deployed more than $60 B buying de-risked, revenue-ready assets. Jefferies launch-value data place $MDGL squarely in this acquisition sweet spot. Comparable deals include Karuna $14 B, Axsome $6 B, and the recent $14.6 B Intra Cellular take-out. Consensus target is $420.63, and my work supports a cash bid between $380 and $480 based on precedent multiples.

📊 Catalysts on Radar

Technical: an hourly close above the MA20 at $311 confirms momentum, while a break of $321 opens room to $356 and the January peak at $377. A breakout above $377 puts the psychological $400 handle in play, often the spark for option sweeps and takeover chatter.

Sector: track $XBI for confirmation of biotech inflows.

Fundamental: watch for European reimbursement decisions, wider U.S. payer coverage, and Q2 sales colour. Short volume ratios above 60 % keep squeeze fuel primed.

📌 Action Plan

Accumulating $285 to $300 with risk guard under $264. Target 1 $356, Target 2 $400 plus on deal rumour ignition. Momentum validation requires an hourly settle above $311 with rising On Balance Volume.

🍀 Contrarian Edge and Conclusion 

Street models still underprice both MASH diagnosis growth and Rezdiffra payer uptake. This is not a hopeful biotech story any more, it is an approved cash engine stepping into global expansion. I see $MDGL transforming in real time into a strategic asset Big Pharma cannot ignore. The market remains asleep, yet I am wide awake, building size deliberately. With volatility cheap and price action tightening, I expect the next repricing phase to be sudden and sharp. I am not here for pennies, I am positioned for the rerate.

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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