To The Moon

$Quantumscape Corp.(QS)$ 🤖🚀⚡ Uncoiling the Cobra, QuantumScape’s Solid-State Rebirth ⚡🚀🤖

27 Jun 25, 🇳🇿 NZ Time

Cobra has leapt off the lab bench into live production, and $QS is ripping as proof replaces promise. I’m already up on my starter lot, lining up adds while shorts scramble to find an exit.

I bought $QS at $6.63 just before the open; latest print is $6.96, leaving me up 4.69 %. Liquidity is stacked on the bid, size is scarce on the offer, and I see shorts beginning to lift as the book thins. This isn’t a scalp, it’s a directional bet on the first hard proof that solid-state science is graduating to factory cadence.

Cobra Redefines Manufacturing Economics

On 24 Jun management confirmed the Cobra separator has moved from lab scale to baseline production, slashing cycle time roughly 25× versus Raptor. That clears Goal #1 on the 2025 roadmap and links breakthrough chemistry to repeatable throughput. Desk chatter turned into price action fast: $QS ripped 31 % on 25 Jun to $5.67, tacked on another 5 % pre-market the next session, and momentum is intact this morning.

Capital Structure and Volkswagen Leverage

• Cash and equivalents finished Q1 FY25 near $860 M, funding opex into late 2028 even with zero revenue.

• The next Volkswagen milestone, up to $130 M, triggers once QSE-5 B1 cells ship. Cobra’s faster cadence pulls that date forward, effectively adding six quarters of runway at the current burn rate.

• Volkswagen’s PowerCo has already booked the high-volume tooling, converting strategic intent into capital expenditure.

Options Structure and Short-Interest Dynamics

On 25 Jun 323 k contracts traded, 81 % were calls. Weekly $5 calls ripped more than 7 000 % intraday, which was a classic dealer gamma chase. Short interest sits near 17 % of float with 1.5 days to cover; 41 M shares (≈43 % of that session’s tape) printed short. Borrow fees are edging higher and the Jul chain’s put-call ratio has collapsed below 0.4, setting the table for a potential squeeze.

Price Architecture and Tactical Levels

Price has broken a three-year descending channel. Support sits at $6.35, the breakout shelf, with a deeper cushion at the $5.50 VWAP node from Tuesday’s ignition. Overhead I’m watching $7.20 then $7.80, both 2023 value highs. A daily settle above $7.20 followed by a weekly close above $7.80 opens the $8.00 gap and lines up my $10 swing target for August.

Macro Tailwinds

Ten-year Treasuries drift below 4 % as Fed-funds futures price a single cut by December, shaving the cost of capital just as pilot lines scale. Washington’s Promoting Resilient Supply Chains Act and Inflation Reduction Act credits reward domestic cell production, while the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism penalises carbon-heavy imports. Policy torque is tilting decisively toward home-grown solid-state output exactly when QuantumScape needs it.

Catalyst Grid on My Screen

• Goal #2: install PowerCo high-volume equipment, site photos or an 8-K could drop any day.

• Goal #3: ship QSE-5 B1 samples via Cobra, which will unlock the VW cheque and give customers performance data.

• Goal #4: formalise new OEM engagements; management hints at six partners, two inside the global top 10.

• Late-Jul Q2 call, watch Cobra yield, capex cadence, and any delta to the guided –$0.18 EPS; even a modest beat could add fuel.

Risk Framework and Trade Management

Hard stop sits just below $6.35. I pyramid on a clean break through $7.20, add again over $7.80, and trail my stop to breakeven once the first add sticks. If borrow utilisation pushes past 16 % while shares available to short dry up, I’ll tighten risk and let squeeze mechanics work. I’m also watching delta-adjusted OI on Jul $7.50 and $10 calls; expanding flow there is jet fuel.

Strategic Rationale for Sustained Long Exposure

Cobra’s transition to continuous production collapses the perpetual pilot bear case. Cash runway spans four-plus years, Volkswagen is underwriting scale, macro policy is a structural tailwind, and shorts still grip meaningful float. With operational risk sharply lower and positioning asymmetrically short, expected value skews long. I’m scaling into strength and letting proven throughput, not lab slides, drive the rerating.

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 Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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