To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ $Serve Robotics Inc.(SERV)$ $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ 🤖🚀📈 Uber: Autonomous Leap to Premium Valuation 📈🚀🤖

27 Jun 25, 🇳🇿 NZST

Uber is moving beyond ride-hail into a data-rich logistics and autonomy platform. Free cash flow is positive, delivery robots are scaling, and institutional money is positioning for a clean print above 100. Each pillar of this thesis, financial strength, technical momentum, capital flow, and autonomous executio is reinforcing the others.

📊 Financial Pivot

Uber’s Q1 numbers confirm the shift from growth-at-all-costs to disciplined profitability.

• Revenue 11.53 B USD | Net profit 1.78 B

• Free cash flow positive for the first time in four years

• Gross bookings +19 % YoY to 42.8 B

• EBITDA margin 5.4 % (+280 bp YoY)

• ROE 69.38 %, ROA 5.21 %

• Debt / EBITDA down to 2.1 × (from 3.7 × in 2022)

• P E 16.25 (TTM) | Forward P E 32.06 | P S 4.24

These metrics anchor the re-rating case. A 192.5 B market cap is modest relative to the margin leverage autonomy unlocks.

📉 Technical Setup

Price trades at 92.03, retaking the 88.38 neckline and clearing 93.60 resistance on volume 28 % above the 20-day average.

• Six-point base projects 100–102

• RSI 63.5 with headroom, MACD rising

• All key moving averages trending higher

Whale buy zones cluster at 90 with visible offers thinning above 95. This is a classic runway toward psychological resistance at 100.

💸 Institutional Flow

Dark-pool prints (~18 M shares at 92.50) signal off-exchange accumulation by large funds. These trades often precede directional moves because they mask intent until filings surface.

• Put / Call ratio 0.55 shows heavy call skew

• OI in 95 c and 100 c strikes +140 % WoW

• Pershing Square added 30 M shares in Q1, FMR added 15 M

Together these data points explain why “whales” are steering price. The size and timing match hedge-fund conviction, not retail chatter.

🤖 Autonomy Growth

Serve Robotics operates 620 delivery bots across four metros, cutting courier fees and lifting Uber Eats margin by roughly 45 bp per launch city. Management guides to 2 000 bots by late-2025.

Waymo-powered robotaxis now run 100 AVs in Austin and dozens in Atlanta. The autonomous ride plus delivery run-rate has topped 1.5 M trips. By partnering rather than building AVs in-house, Uber shares R and D cost, accelerates deployment, and limits balance-sheet risk.

🌐 Macro and Regulation

Discretionary mobility spend is holding despite inflation. The US Supreme Court’s decision to let Proposition 22 stand preserves the independent-contractor model. NYC’s 5 % pay-floor bump is immaterial versus widening margins. Global diversification cushions local shocks, but AV safety headlines remain a swing factor to monitor.

🎯 Trade Map

Bull 60 %, sustained close above 95 forces dealer hedging toward 100–102

Base 30 %, oscillation 88–95, accumulate 90–92

Bear 10 %, AV incident or legal jolt, protect below 88

Defined-risk idea: buy 95 c, sell 100 c for ~0.95 debit, breakeven 95.95, max value 4.05 at or above 100.

👀 Key Triggers

• Serve’s next-city PR (mid-July)

• Q3 call: autonomous-trip metrics and gross margin commentary

• Dark-pool blocks >15 M at ≥95, potential squeeze spark

⚖️ Risk Checks

Labour-status litigation, unexpected AV accidents, or broad market risk-off. Position size ≤2 % NAV, stop under 88 for active trades.

🚀 Bottom Line

Profitable operations, accelerating autonomy, and concentrated institutional flow are converging. I continue to build between 90 and 92, targeting the first decisive close in triple digits and a valuation reset befitting Uber’s evolution into an autonomous logistics backbone.

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Trade like a boss, happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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