To The Moon

The first time I bought TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) was on October 30, 2023, at a price of $83.25 per share. Since then, I’ve steadily added to my position — not aggressively, but consistently — and what’s important is this: I haven’t sold a single share in my Tiger Brokers app.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

You might wonder why I’m holding onto a long-duration bond ETF in a high-interest-rate environment. After all, TLT hasn’t exactly been a hot performer. But my decision isn’t based on hype or short-term trading. I’m holding TLT because I see it as a core part of my portfolio strategy — for both income and risk management.

1. A Reliable Source of Monthly Income

One of the key reasons I continue to hold TLT is that it provides regular dividends.

The most recent ex-dividend date was June 2, with a payout of $0.3195 per share. That may not sound like much at first glance, but here’s the math:

The dividend amount does vary from month to month, depending on interest income and other factors. But let’s assume — just for simplicity — that TLT continues to pay around $0.3195 per month. Over 12 months, that’s $3.834 in annual dividends.

With my average cost basis sitting at around $90.76 per share, that gives me a dividend yield of roughly 4.22% — not spectacular, but steady. Of course, I’m fully aware that the dividend amount fluctuates based on interest income from the underlying Treasury bonds, but that’s a trade-off I accept for monthly cash flow.

If I were to rely purely on dividends to recover my investment (which I’m not), it would take around 24 years to break even. But again — income is only one part of the story.

2. A Hedge Against Economic Uncertainty

Another big reason I’m holding TLT is because I view it as a hedge against recession risk. While many investors are now talking about a “soft landing” or even a “no landing,” I’m not entirely convinced. The economy moves in cycles, and interest rates have been elevated for quite some time. Add in tariffs and geopolitical tensions, and I believe the risk of a slowdown — or even a recession — is underappreciated.

If we do see a recession or even a sharp slowdown, it’s likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and when that happens, long-duration bonds like those held in TLT tend to rally. That would push the price of TLT up — potentially significantly. Historically, in periods of rate cuts or flight to safety, TLT has performed well.

So while some investors are betting on equities or high-yield assets, I’m playing a defensive long game with TLT as my insurance policy.

3. Patience Over Panic

I’m not chasing quick profits with TLT. I understand this isn’t a fast-moving or exciting stock — it’s not the kind of investment that suddenly doubles overnight. Instead, I see it as an asset that provides monthly income and could gain value over time, especially if interest rates fall. It might not be thrilling, but it fits my long-term and conservative approach to investing.

Right now, I have no intention of selling unless the price goes above $110 per share — and even then, it wouldn’t be a quick trigger. That price target isn’t just a number I pulled out of thin air; it reflects what I believe to be a fairer valuation in a lower-rate environment, should we eventually get there.

Final Thoughts

Some people chase momentum, some chase yield — I’m chasing balance. TLT may not be the most exciting ETF in my portfolio, but it serves a clear and strategic purpose. It gives me dividend income, offers downside protection in a potential recession, and keeps me diversified in a volatile market.

I’m not trying to time the market. I’m building a position — carefully, gradually, and with conviction. And as long as the reasons I bought TLT remain valid, I’m holding — patiently, intentionally, and with a long view.