To The Moon

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ Where Data-Rich Precision Medicine Meets Scalable AI

Source: Tempus AI Q1 Investor Presentation: Summary

Tempus AI is a Chicago-based health-tech company on a mission to make every cancer diagnosis—and eventually every serious disease—an algorithmically informed decision. The firm combines high-throughput genomic testing with one of the world’s largest, fully-consented clinical-outcomes databases. By structuring 40-plus million patient records into a searchable, machine-learning platform, Tempus gives oncologists and drug developers real-time insight into which therapies work, why they work, and for whom.

• Dual-engine model – Tempus runs CLIA-certified labs that process hundreds of thousands of DNA/RNA samples a year, generating steady service revenue and continuously feeding its multimodal data cloud.

• AI at the point of care – The company’s Lens™ software plugs into hospital EMRs, returning treatment recommendations and clinical-trial matches in hours rather than weeks.

• Pharma partnerships – With clients such as AstraZeneca, BioNTech, and Pathos, Tempus licenses de-identified data, co-develops companion diagnostics, and builds custom foundation models that accelerate drug discovery.

• Scalable economics – Each new test enriches the data lake, widening the moat while driving high-margin analytics revenue—an “airline-plus-AWS” flywheel unique in precision medicine.

In short, Tempus aims to do for healthcare what Bloomberg did for finance: turn disparate, slow-moving data into an always-on decision engine, priced as a must-have subscription for both clinicians and biopharma innovators.

Lets deep dive shall we:

1. Quarter in one line

Tempus just printed a 75 % headline revenue jump—and only ~⅓ of that was organic. The Ambry Genetics tuck-in plus a fresh $200 m AstraZeneca work-order propelled backlog past the $1 billion mark, but the core oncology engine actually stepped sideways versus Q4.

2. Breaking down the numbers

TEM Q1 Results in a nutshell

3. Competitive moat

• Scale: 1.5 m matched genomic/clinical cases—bigger than Flatiron + Guardant combined.

• Integration: owns wet-lab, cloud, analytics, and patient-engagement app (Olivia) end-to-end.

• Regulatory wall: 250 + accreditations and FedRAMP cloud credentials—multi-year effort for any newcomer.

• Partnership lock-ins: joint assay kit with Illumina, multimodal AI deals with AstraZeneca & BioNTech, SoftBank JV for Japan.

4.What’s firing

▪︎ Ambry turbo-boost Only eight weeks of Ambry flowed into Q1, yet the hereditary platform already prints >$90 m ARR. Integration synergies—shared sequencing infrastructure & joint payor contracting—should lift Ambry’s 2025 gross margin from mid-40 s to >50 %.

▪︎ AstraZeneca keeps re-upping A new $200 m order (co-developing a multimodal oncology foundation model with Pathos) pushed total contracted value >$1 bn. Big-pharma endorsement is a soft-moat Tempus can parlay into other CDx deals.

▪︎ Oncology ASP trend still up Every quarter more samples migrate to xT CDx (ADLT price $4,500 vs. prior $1,590 ASP). Management targets >50 % of legacy tests on xT by FY-26—each 100 bp mix shift adds ~60 bp to blended gross margin.

5. The soft spots

Issues to Monitor @Tempus AI

6. Refreshed unit-economics & 2025 guide

7. Valuation refresh

8. Technical pulse (daily chart)

• Shares reversed off a six-month down-trend line (~$80 in March → ~$70 now).

• Rising 200-day MA ($52) & horizontal support band ($44–46) still intact.

• Volume: post-short-report sell-off (May 28) saw 10× normal turnover, but bulls absorbed it above $50.*

In short, $60–$63 is the new pivot; bulls need a clean breakout >$70 to resume February momentum.

8. Updated price map

9. Bottom line

What’s changed? Ambry is beating, AstraZeneca keeps buying, and reported growth will scream “+80 %” all year. What hasn’t? OpEx is still outsized and FCF break-even sits in 2027-plus territory.

For existing holders:

• Stay long but trim >$70 unless EBITDA run-rate turns solidly positive.

• Monitor Q2 (late-July)—core revenue must re-accelerate and cost ratio dip below 80 % to validate the bullish curve.

For new money:

• Treat TEM as an option-like 0.5 %–1 % bet on AI oncology.

• Your risk-control line = $45 (multi-month support).

• Upside trigger = management lifts FY-25 EBITDA guide materially above $5 m or announces another big-pharma data-model deal.

The company is firing on all cylinders–but the tank still leaks cash. Size accordingly.

DISCLAIMER: Author’s estimates. No part of this article constitutes investment advice. Always do your own due diligence.