To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 🚨📈🧠 June Crossroads: Volatility, Rotation, and the Bull Flag Enigma 🧠📈🚨

I’ve never faced a June quite like this one! The air hums with tension. Historical patterns whisper caution, yet the market’s recent pulse beats with defiance. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index sits coiled, a spring wound tight, hinting at a move that could either ignite a broad-based rally or trigger a deeper phase of consolidation. Hedge funds are layering into shorts, dark pool flows flicker with intent, and macro signals are multiplying. I’m not just watching this unfold. I’m dissecting every layer to understand what’s next. Let’s navigate the labyrinth.

🗓️ June’s Dual Nature: History vs. Momentum

June wears two faces. Go back to 1980, and you’ll find it has never delivered the S&P 500’s high of the year. It typically lands in the bottom third of monthly returns over a 25-year window (Bloomberg, 30 May 2025). Yet from 2015 to 2024, the script flips.

Here’s the 10-year June return series for the S&P 500 (YCharts):

2015: −2.16%

2016: +0.23%

2017: +0.48%

2018: +0.48%

2019: +6.89%

2020: +1.84%

2021: +2.22%

2022: −8.39%

2023: +6.47%

2024: +3.47%

The long lens offers historical restraint. The recent trend signals resilience.

For me, this divergence isn’t noise. It’s opportunity. June demands precision and presence, not passivity!

📊 S&P 500 (SPX): Teetering on the Edge

On 30 May 2025, the S&P 500 closed at 5,911.69, just 3.8% above a widely watched gapfill level at 5,691. Should the market falter, from fund rebalancing or a macro surprise, that level becomes gravitational.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is forming a textbook bull flag, compressed between key EMAs. This setup offers binary outcomes. A breakout would widen breadth and reinforce rotation from mega caps into the broader market. A breakdown could usher in an extended summer grind.

This chart is my reference point, the market’s pulse in real time.

Technical Analysis

SPX is brushing its 50-day moving average, with RSI at 60. There’s room for further upside, but momentum is softening. MACD is decelerating. Options flow reveals heavy put positioning at the 5,900 strike, suggesting hedging activity. Short interest has risen to 2.3%, well above the long-term average of 1.7% (Goldman Sachs via Bloomberg Terminal).

Macro Context

The Fed remains a wild card. While inflation continues to decelerate, growth is losing altitude. Will policymakers pivot dovish to avoid overtightening, or will they lean hawkish to reassert credibility? Trade tensions, particularly with China, compound the uncertainty.

🔍 Macro Wildcard: The Tariff Twist

A pending Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA, the legal framework underpinning Trump’s tariff strategy, could significantly limit presidential trade powers (Bloomberg Law, 29 May 2025). If the court curtails that scope, it may unwind protectionist tailwinds across industrial sectors.

📉 Hedge Funds: Betting on the Storm

Hedge funds are preparing for turbulence. Goldman Sachs’ 21 May 2025 report outlines a marked surge in bearish positioning. ETF short exposure ballooned to $218 billion, the largest monthly jump in a decade. Total stock shorts now stand at $948 billion. Gross leverage has surpassed its 2020 and 2022 highs.

Their exposure is concentrated in Financials ($KRE) and Biotech ($XBI). Meanwhile, long books remain overweight in Big Tech ~ $NVDA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $META ~ creating a structurally unbalanced market. Should positioning unwind, the reflexive rally could be abrupt and sharp.

Technical Analysis

Despite these aggressive hedges, the VIX remains unusually subdued. This complacency gap suggests either a false sense of security or a market desensitised to risk, a setup historically associated with volatility spikes.

Macro Context

These bets reflect rising macro fragility. The hedge fund community is actively pricing in asymmetric downside skew, a move grounded in real policy and geopolitical risk.

📊 Sentiment Split: Retail vs. Institutions

A behavioural divergence is opening fast. Retail traders remain net long and optimistic, buying every dip with conviction. Institutions are growing increasingly defensive. According to JP Morgan’s Flow Monitor (28 May 2025), this is now the widest sentiment gap since March 2020.

Retail’s actions reflect anchoring bias, extrapolating past rallies into future expectations. Institutions are signalling regime change. One side is mispricing risk, the market will decide who’s right.

Technical Analysis

Retail-heavy names like $TSLA and $NVDA are flashing elevated RSI readings. Bullish momentum is intact, but momentum indicators suggest a pause could be near.

Macro Context

Retail positioning is supported by strong labour market data and wage growth. Institutions, however, remain focused on input costs, margins, and earnings compression risk.

📉 Recent Events

Unemployment ticked modestly higher, yet wage inflation persists. This supports household spending, but complicates the Fed’s mandate.

📈 Stocks Under My Microscope for June 🔬

$TSLA

💰 Price: 346.46 (−3.34%)

📎 Open: 355.52

📎 High/Low: 363.68 / 345.29

📎 Volume: 123.5M

📈 Breakout Watch: A close above $351.39 confirms breakout from consolidation

📉 Technicals: TSLA is now holding above MA10 (290.29) and MA20 (312.51), just under MA30 (335.77). Short interest at 5% increases squeeze potential.

🧠 Valuation: P/E 198.23, P/S 11.66, ROE 8.77%

⚠️ Target zone: Break above $351.39 opens runway to $388.50–$400

$NVDA

💰 Price: 135.13 (−2.92%)

📎 Post-market: 134.51 (−0.46%)

📎 Volume: 333.2M

📎 52W Range: 86.62 – 153.13

📉 MA Levels: MA5: 126.59, MA10: 116.04, MA20: 122.04, MA30: 127.98

📎 Valuation: P/E 45.71, Forward P/E 31.28, ROA 53.24%, ROE 115.46%

📊 Technical Check: RSI remains elevated. MACD is decelerating slightly, not a sell, but signalling consolidation. Currently basing above MA cluster.

📈 Trade Setup: Reclaim of $139.19 reactivates trend toward the $153.13 ATH

🤖 Narrative: With its recent robotics acquisition, Nvidia is quietly signalling the next phase of AI monetisation.

$QUBT

📉 Close: 11.32 (−8.89%)

📊 Post-market: 11.39 (+0.57%)

📎 Volume: 25.68M

📎 Turnover: $299.2M

📎 Turnover Rate: 22.93%

📈 Technicals: Trading above MA5–MA30

📎 52W Range: 0.35 – 27.15

📎 Valuation: Market cap: $1.6B, P/S: 4144.76, EPS: −0.42, Fwd P/E: −53.93, ROA/ROE: deeply negative

⚠️ High Risk, High Reward: This is not a value play. It’s a hyper-speculative growth bet grounded in quantum computing’s promise.

Key Levels

🔻 Support: 10.50

🚀 Breakout: 13.00 → 15.00

$PLTR

💰 Price: 131.78 (+7.73%)

📎 Post-market: 130.20 (−1.20%)

📎 Volume: 185.9M

📎 52W High: 133.49

📎 MA Levels: MA5: 125.24, MA10: 108.12, MA20: 99.64, MA30: 90.25

📎 Valuation: P/E 571.55, P/S 99.84, ROE 12.36%

📊 Flow: Dark pool flows above $600M confirm deep-pocket institutional conviction

🧠 Technical: Weekly chart just printed a bullish engulfing on top of a golden cross

📈 Trigger: Breakout above 133.49 unlocks clean run to 150

📊 Chart Signals to Watch

🟢 $PLTR Weekly: Bullish engulfing supported by a golden cross, high probability continuation

🟢 $QUBT Weekly: Bull flag developing on strong volume

🟢 $TSLA Monthly: Consolidation with breakout tension building

🟢 $SPX Daily: Compression below ATH with low volatility. The fuse is lit

🟢 $NVDA Weekly: Holding above MA cluster, eyeing $139 reclaim

🗓️ June’s Pivotal Moments (Week of 1 June 2025)

Monday: ISM Manufacturing, $CRDO earnings

Tuesday: JOLTS, $NIO, $DG, $CRWD, $HPE, $ASAN

Wednesday: ADP Jobs, ISM Services, $DLTR, $MDB, $CHPT, $FIVE

Thursday: Jobless Claims, $CIEN, $AVGO, $LULU, $DOCU, $IOT

Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings

ISM and payrolls will define the narrative heading into Q3.

🎯 Closing Thoughts: June Demands Precision

This is not a market for the passive. We’re sitting at a technical and macro inflection. Sentiment divergence, hedge fund leverage, and legal catalysts are all coiling beneath the surface.

Whether we break higher or chop sideways, I’m trading with discipline, edge, and awareness.

Actionable Levels

$SPX: Watch 5,691. A breach invites drawdown

$TSLA: Breakout above 351.39 unlocks 388.50

$NVDA: 139.19 reclaim triggers momentum

$QUBT: 13 breakout targets 15

$PLTR: 133.49 resistance unlocks 150

This month won’t reward noise. It will reward focus. I’m positioned. Are you?

🧾 Sources:

Bloomberg (30 May 2025): “June’s Lagging Record and Seasonal Weakness”

Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage Report (21 May 2025)

YCharts S&P 500 Monthly Returns (2015–2024)

Polymarket.com “Largest Company by Dec 2025” (31 May 2025)

JP Morgan Flow Monitor (28 May 2025)

Bloomberg Law: SCOTUS vs. IEEPA (29 May 2025)

Tiger Brokers Data & Charts (30 May 2025)

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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