To The Moon

$Intel(INTC)$

Intel is set to report its first-quarter 2025 financial results after the markets close on April 24th. And that has investors asking one big question: Should you buy Intel stock before the earnings announcement—or wait until after?

That’s exactly what I’m going to help you decide in this article.

We'll also walk through:

• What to watch for in Intel’s Q1 report

• The company’s evolving strategy, leadership changes, and potential restructuring

• Why I believe the market is dramatically undervaluing Intel right now

• And, of course, I’ll share my updated discounted cash flow (DCF) model—with a fresh valuation based on current fundamentals and future cash flows.

A Quick Recap of Where Intel Stands

Let’s rewind a bit. On January 30th, Intel reported its Q4 2024 results. The numbers? Not great on the surface.

• Revenue declined 7% year-over-year to $14.3 billion in Q4

• For the full year, revenue dropped 2% to $53 billion

But the issues here aren’t demand-related. It’s not like the world doesn’t want what Intel’s selling. In fact, the market for AI-optimized servers and cloud infrastructure is booming. Hyperscalers are expected to spend over $200 billion on AI data center infrastructure in 2025 alone.

The problem is: Intel doesn’t yet have the right product lineup to serve that demand. Competitors like NVIDIA and AMD, who offer cutting-edge GPUs tailor-made for AI workloads, have been scooping up market share while Intel struggles to catch up.

The Investment Thesis: Still a Global Giant

That said, Intel is still a $50+ billion-a-year company with a massive global footprint. It remains a critical supplier of CPUs and other components used across enterprise, consumer, and industrial applications.

So despite the negative headlines, Intel is far from irrelevant. The story here is about a company trying to reinvent itself—and that process is messy. And speaking of reinvention…

Intel Has a New CEO—And a Lot to Prove

This Q1 earnings call will be the first under Intel’s new CEO. The board of directors ousted the previous CEO—not because of scandal or misconduct—but because they were impatient with the results of Intel’s multi-year transformation strategy.

That previous strategy, led by Pat Gelsinger, was incredibly ambitious. Under his leadership, Intel embarked on a plan to:

• Rebuild its manufacturing dominance

• Invest in cutting-edge process nodes

• Compete directly with foundries like TSMC

In fact, over 2023 and 2024, Intel invested a combined $49.6 billion into property, plant, and equipment. That’s an almost unheard-of level of capital expenditure for a company of Intel’s size. Specifically:

• $25.75 billion in 2023

• $23.9 billion in 2024

These were long-term investments meant to position Intel for leadership in semiconductors by the end of the decade. But the results weren’t coming fast enough. Intel was burning cash, suspending its dividend, and seeing its stock slide.

So the board lost patience. Gelsinger was out. And now, all eyes are on his replacement.

The new CEO hasn’t had time to enact sweeping changes yet—but this quarter could be our first real glimpse into what direction Intel is headed under his leadership.

Is a Breakup Coming?

There’s also ongoing speculation that Intel may split into two separate companies:

1. One focused on chip design

2. The other on semiconductor manufacturing (like TSMC)

That would be a radical restructuring—but not unprecedented in this industry. AMD successfully spun off its foundry business (which became GlobalFoundries) years ago, and it’s arguably one of the best decisions that company ever made.

Splitting Intel’s design and manufacturing arms could:

• Unlock hidden value in each business

• Increase agility

• Allow Intel to better compete on each front separately

We don’t have confirmation yet, but I’ll be listening closely on the earnings call for any hints of structural change.

Taiwan Semiconductor Partnership: A Smart Move

In between Q4 and the upcoming Q1 report, Intel also announced a potential partnership with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

This is a huge development.

If you’ve followed my content, you know I’m a big fan of TSMC. Not just as a semiconductor giant, but as one of the most efficient, best-run manufacturing operations in the world—full stop.

Intel partnering with TSMC could be the best move it’s made in years.

The company’s biggest issues haven’t been related to customer demand—they’ve been execution problems, largely on the manufacturing side. Learning from, or even outsourcing to, TSMC could help Intel catch up faster than trying to do it all alone.

So... Should You Buy Intel Stock Before Earnings?

Let’s bring this all together and look at what my discounted cash flow (DCF) model says.

My Fair Value for Intel: $33 per share

• Current market price: Around $20

• Implied upside: Over 70%

But—and this is important—Intel is not a low-risk investment right now.

This is a company in transition. It’s working through:

• A massive multiyear investment cycle

• Leadership turnover

• Free cash flow that’s projected to stay negative until 2028

Here’s what my forecast shows:

• 2025: –$3.5 billion FCF

• 2026: Negative again

• 2027: Still negative

• 2028: Finally turns positive with $13 billion in FCF, followed by sustained positive cash flow

So you’re looking at at least 3 more years of uncertainty before the business begins to deliver meaningful returns on its investments.

But that’s also where opportunity lies. Most investors don’t want to wait. But if you can think long-term and stomach the volatility, you may be getting in at a major discount.

My Recommendation

If you're a risk-tolerant, long-term investor, I believe Intel is a buy today—before earnings. At under $20 per share, it offers significant upside based on future cash flow potential.

That said, if you want to be more conservative, consider this approach:

• Buy half your intended position before earnings

• Buy the other half after earnings, once you’ve had a chance to assess management commentary and Q1 performance

This way, you balance upside exposure with downside risk in case earnings disappoint or guidance gets slashed.

Conclusion

Intel’s story is still being written. The road ahead is uncertain, and there are real execution challenges. But the valuation is compelling, and if management gets it right, this could be one of the better turnaround plays in large-cap tech today. Let me know what you think in the comments—are you buying Intel now or waiting for more clarity?

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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