To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$

Tesla’s stock is under fire, dropping to test the $220 level again as of April 8, 2025. Tesla bull Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities has slashed his price target, calling Tesla a “political symbol” amid Elon Musk’s controversial ties to the Trump administration. With earnings set for April 22, the big question looms: Can Tesla hold the key $200 level before the report? And if you’re eyeing a dip, what’s the right price to buy? Let’s break down the technicals, fundamentals, and sentiment to find out if this is a golden opportunity—or a falling knife.

Tesla’s $220 Test: A Technical Breakdown

Tesla’s stock has been a rollercoaster in 2025, down 11% YTD and now testing $220—a critical support level. The $200 mark is the next major psychological and technical floor, and a break below could spell trouble. Here’s the setup:

• Support Levels: $220 has held as support since late March, but volume is thinning—signaling weak buying conviction.

• Next Floor: $200 aligns with the 200-day moving average, a line that often acts as a last stand for bulls.

• Resistance: $230-$235 has capped recent rallies, with heavy selling pressure.

Table: Tesla’s Key Technical Levels (April 2025)

Note: Likelihoods are illustrative, based on current momentum and volume trends.

Graphing the Slide

Tesla's stock price from January to April 2025

This graph would highlight Tesla’s struggle to hold $220, with $200 looming as the next battleground.

Can Tesla Hold $200 Before Earnings?

Tesla’s earnings on April 22 are a make-or-break moment. Here’s what’s at play:

• Q1 Delivery Miss: Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles in Q1, down 13% YoY—the weakest since 2022. Analysts expect EPS of $0.53, a 17.78% YoY increase, but a miss could tank the stock.

• Political Headwinds: Dan Ives’ “political symbol” label reflects Musk’s polarizing role in Trump’s administration, fueling boycotts in Europe and Asia. This has already dented sales.

• Market Sentiment: Posts on X show mixed vibes—some see $200 as a buy zone, while others predict a sub-$200 crash post-earnings.

Bull Case for Holding $200:

• A potential Musk exit from his DOGE advisory role could ease political backlash, as seen with the 5.33% pop on April 5.

• Strong guidance on affordable vehicle production (slated for H1 2025) could reignite investor confidence.

Bear Case for Breaking $200:

• A weak earnings report—especially on margins or China sales—could trigger a sell-off.

• Broader market turmoil (S&P 500 down 5.97% on April 5) might drag Tesla lower.

Verdict: Tesla has a 60% chance of holding $200 pre-earnings, but it hinges on market stability and pre-earnings sentiment. A break below $220 this week could accelerate the slide.

Risks: What Could Push Tesla Lower?

• Earnings Miss: Analysts expect $0.53 EPS, but Q1’s delivery drop signals risk. A miss could send TSLA to $190.

• China Woes: Tariffs and competition from BYD (19% cheaper EVs) are squeezing Apple’s China market share.

• Musk Drama: If Musk doubles down on politics, global backlash could intensify.

Buy the Dip: What Price Makes Sense?

At $220, Tesla’s P/E is 25x—below its 5-year average of 28x—making it tempting. But timing is everything:

• Aggressive Buy: Scoop at $210 if $220 breaks—closer to the 200-day MA with better risk/reward.

• Patient Buy: Wait for $200—a psychological floor with high-volume support. Analysts’ median target is $232.64, offering 16% upside.

• Options Play: Grab a $225 call (May expiry) to limit downside while betting on an earnings pop.

My Plan: I’m waiting for $205-$200. The risk of a pre-earnings drop outweighs the current reward at $220, but I’m ready to pounce if it hits that key support.

Your Move: Buy, Wait, or Walk Away?

Tesla’s teetering at $220—can it hold $200 before April 22 earnings? Are you buying the dip now, targeting a lower entry, or steering clear? Drop your strategy below—let’s navigate this storm together!

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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