To The Moon

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Extreme Fear Grips Markets

The Fear & Greed Index, which tracks investor sentiment, is currently sitting at 4 out of 100. For context, the “Extreme Fear” category begins at 25—we’re well below that.

A Brutal Week for U.S. Tech

Looking at the S&P 500 over the past five days, the picture is grim. Nearly everything is red. But it’s not just the color—it’s the severity of the losses. Apple is down 7%, Meta 10%, Amazon 8%. ServiceNow, Intuit, Salesforce, Adobe, Uber—all down more than 9%. These are major, foundational U.S. tech companies, and they’re continuing to slide.

A False Hope and a Flash Rebound

There was a brief moment of optimism when a rumor emerged that President Trump was considering a 90-day pause on the tariffs. That glimmer of hope triggered a 20-minute rally where markets reversed from –4% to +1%. But that rally was crushed as the administration labeled the report “fake news.” The market resumed its steep decline, with extreme volatility and whipsaw price action.

Growing Rebellion Among Supporters

Now, even vocal Trump supporters—such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Bill Ackman—are publicly speaking out. They’re calling the tariffs a massive mistake, pointing out that they’re excessive, one-sided, and poorly structured. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan warns they will raise prices and slow growth. This is no longer just opposition from the usual critics—this is a rift within Trump’s own support base.

Navarro Defends the Indefensible

Meanwhile, Trump’s top trade advisor, Peter Navarro, went on CNBC to defend the policy in a lengthy interview. But while he tried to justify the tariff math, critics argue that the formulas being used are nonsensical and even fabricated. The White House is calculating tariffs using a flawed and inconsistent methodology, based on trade deficits rather than actual reciprocal rates.

Investor Expectations vs. Reality

Originally, investors expected moderate tariffs in the 10–13% range. Markets even rose briefly when those expectations were set. But as soon as Trump revealed his version of the math—with tariffs jumping as high as 34% for China and 36% for Thailand—confidence vanished.

The Confidence Crisis

Investing is a confidence game. Investors need to believe in a country’s stability, its institutions, and its rules. Right now, that confidence is eroding fast—not because of irrational panic, but because policy is being made in an unpredictable and erratic way.

Backlash from Even the Loyalists

Even Elon Musk, Ted Cruz, and others who’ve supported Trump are now criticizing the tariffs as damaging. Musk has called for free trade agreements with Europe and slammed Navarro’s justifications as lacking both “ego” and “brains.”

Capital Flight from U.S. Markets

What we’re seeing now is capital fleeing U.S. equities, not because the U.S. is weak at its core, but because the policy rollout is incoherent, and the tariff strategy lacks transparency and rational basis. Even with mounting pressure for a 90-day pause, Navarro and the White House continue to defend the plan, framing critics as the usual anti-Trump crowd—when in reality, many are long-time allies who are now deeply concerned.

The Real Problem: Complexity and Uncertainty

Navarro’s argument is that zero tariffs aren’t enough—he emphasizes non-tariff barriers, such as VAT taxes, government subsidies, currency manipulation, and technical trade restrictions. These issues are real. But they’re also highly complex, subjective, and difficult to resolve quickly.

An Unworkable Timeline

That’s the core issue: the timeline is too short, the criteria too vague, and the consequences too severe. And because of this, confidence is collapsing—not just in the policy, but in America as a predictable, stable place to invest.

Investors Want Clarity

What’s Missing Isn’t Tariffs—It’s Strategy

The issue isn't tariffs themselves. The U.S. has long dealt with unequal trade relationships, and other countries often charge us significantly more than we charge them. A smart, methodical rollout of a reciprocal tariff policy could have made sense—if it were clear, consistent, and transparent. But what we’ve seen instead is a chaotic and confusing execution, and markets are responding accordingly.

Uncertainty Is Killing Confidence

The problem isn’t just that tariffs were announced. It’s that no one knows what the actual policy is—not the investors, not the CEOs, not even, it seems, the policymakers themselves. Since the announcement, uncertainty and ambiguity have dominated. There’s no clearly communicated goal, no defined endgame, and no predictable process. Capital allocators, corporate strategists, and global business leaders are now flying blind.

“I Don’t Think They Know What They’re Doing”

As Derek Thompson put it:

“What bothers me most is not that I don’t know which side is which—it’s that I don’t think the people in charge know what they’re doing or why.”

The justifications for this policy are all over the place. Peter Navarro claims the tariffs will raise $600 billion annually, suggesting permanence. Tech advisors close to Trump argue it’s just a negotiating tactic. And then there’s the fringe theory—Steven Mirren’s view that it’s all about de-dollarization, even as the dollar strengthens globally. These narratives contradict each other.

Uncertainty Cuts Both Ways

There’s a theory that Trump thrives on uncertainty, using unpredictability as leverage. But there’s a flaw:

Uncertainty may pressure foreign governments, but it paralyzes domestic business.

U.S. manufacturers can’t plan. Companies can’t budget or invest. How do you scale a factory when you don’t know what tomorrow’s trade policy looks like? Even CapEx-heavy firms need years of foresight, not 90-day tweet cycles. In global trade and industrial planning, certainty isn’t optional—it’s essential.

Certainty Is an Economic Asset

Predictability gives investors and business owners the confidence to allocate capital long-term. When that confidence erodes, so does investment. And that’s exactly what’s happening now. You don’t drive investment by sowing confusion and moving goalposts.

Some Still Support the Strategy

Not everyone is negative. Investors like Kyle Bass support the tariffs, believing they’ll bring other countries to the negotiating table. He sees the volatility as temporary pain for long-term gain, citing countries like Vietnam already requesting exemptions and entering talks. In his view, this is chess, not checkers.

But Others Are Calling It What It Is: Degrowth

Derek Thompson responded directly to this logic, saying:

“I’ve heard people on TV saying if the economy shrinks, that’s good; if housing crashes, that’s good. When did the capital class become degrowth protectionists from the 19th century?”

His critique: This isn’t pro-growth policy—it’s a scarcity mindset, disguised as nationalism. The dream isn’t coming back if you're crashing the economy to “help” people afford things. Young people don’t benefit from collapsing housing prices if they lose their jobs first.

Tariffs on Housing? A Self-Inflicted Wound

If the real issue is housing affordability, the answer isn’t to raise prices by slapping 25% tariffs on Canadian lumber and Mexican drywall. That directly raises the cost of construction. Trump could have focused on zoning reform or streamlining building regulations—instead, we got higher input costs and less affordability.

Scarcity Over Abundance

This isn’t a policy of abundance, confidence, or growth. It’s a retreat inward. A belief that we win only if someone else loses. And that’s not how modern global economies thrive. You can’t isolate America into prosperity. Growth happens through cooperation, competition, and clarity—not autarky and ad hoc policy.

Why the Market Is Dropping

Stocks are falling not because the U.S. is weak, but because the investment outlook is deteriorating. These policies directly lower projected future cash flows for many U.S. companies—especially those with large international exposure.

Global Exposure, Global Risks

Consider Netflix: Over 50% of its revenue comes from outside North America. The same applies to Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta. These companies operate globally. They’re not exporting lumber—they’re selling software, subscriptions, and services. Yet they’re becoming targets of retaliation simply because they’re American.

Retaliation Is Already Brewing

Foreign leaders are openly threatening countermeasures. U.S. companies could face new restrictions, market bans, or regulatory crackdowns abroad. This is escalating. With every passing hour that the tariff regime continues without clarity, systemic risk increases.

Buying Dip, How?

Let’s talk about the concept of buying the dip—this idea that, as disciplined investors, we strike when opportunity presents itself. When stocks are cheap and fear is widespread, that’s when we act. Great in theory, but in practice, much harder.

Buying small dips? Easy. Stocks drop 3–4%? No big deal. Investors jump in because there’s little real risk—just market noise. But buying big dips? That’s where the real mental challenge begins. When stocks fall 10–15%, and uncertainty is at its peak, it becomes much harder to pull the trigger. Why? Because the fear that stocks might keep dropping after you buy becomes very real. And the truth is—sometimes they do.

It’s impossible to time the bottom. No one has ever proven they can consistently call the exact low. Bottom-calling is speculation. What we can do is buy quality businesses when they’re selling for less than they’re worth—when the market overreacts and prices in more doom than reality calls for.

And right now, I’m seeing that across the board.

Still, investors hesitate. They say things like “This time it’s different.” Whether it’s the lack of Fed support, rising geopolitical risks, or leadership uncertainties, every dip has its own narrative. But guess what? It’s always different. Markets don’t sell off unless something feels uniquely bad. If it weren’t different, prices wouldn’t fall. The discount exists because the future is unclear. That’s the nature of risk—and that’s what creates opportunity.

This is the risk premium. If you want long-term outperformance, you have to accept short-term discomfort. That’s the trade-off.

Big corrections usually show up during extreme uncertainty—when investor confidence is shaken. And that’s when prices get too low. Just like we saw stocks become way overpriced in 2021 based on blind optimism, they can become overly discounted today based on excessive pessimism.

One of the patterns I often see during these times is that investors abandon their strategy. They give up on individual stocks and move to ETFs. While ETFs are a fine option, in many cases, that switch actually reduces market exposure at the exact time it should be increasing. If you were bullish on a company a month ago, it's worth revisiting the thesis now—not abandoning it just because of price volatility.

You’ll never have full clarity when it comes to buying the dip. Investing always requires some faith in the long-term, in the resilience of great businesses and markets. That’s why successful investors are often long-term optimists. Warren Buffett, for example, continues to express unwavering confidence in America—despite decades of crises and setbacks. Leadership comes and goes. Bad policies get reversed. Uncertainty fades.

And when it does—even just a little—these same discounted stocks can snap back fast.

That’s why I’m buying. Not because I know what happens next, but because history has shown that buying quality businesses during moments like this tends to pay off.

To highlight that, let’s rewind to March 23, 2020. The exact bottom of the COVID crash. At that moment, uncertainty was everywhere. People were panic-buying essentials. Entire industries were shut down. And even seasoned economists were urging caution. That same day, I made two deposits into my brokerage account—$500 and $2,000. I bought stocks like Apple and Microsoft at prices that, in hindsight, were incredibly attractive.

Did I know that was the bottom? No. I bought a little early and a little late—but I was buying, not sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity that would never come.

I’m not saying today is exactly like 2020. Every situation is unique. But the principle holds: when you can buy best-in-class companies with strong balance sheets, wide moats, and durable cash flows—at a discount due to market fear—that’s usually a good bet long-term.

Many of the companies I’m buying now are down 10–15% in just the last few days. That’s not normal volatility—that’s panic pricing. And while I can’t predict the exact moment the market bounces back, I believe these are the moments to lean in.

So I’ll continue buying—methodically, aggressively, and with long-term conviction—knowing full well that I don’t have all the answers. And that’s okay.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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