To The Moon

$Newsmax Inc.(NMAX)$ 🔥🚨🎯 Newsmax: Meme Stock Frenzy or Media Disruptor? A Deep Dive into $NMAX’s Wild Ride 🎯🚨🔥 In a market where meme stocks and political currents collide, Newsmax Inc. ($NMAX) has emerged as a lightning rod. The conservative media company, fiercely loyal to Donald Trump, exploded onto Wall Street with a limited IPO on 28 March 2025, raising $75 million at $10 per share. What followed was pure spectacle, the stock surged 735% on its debut, peaked at a jaw-dropping 2,230% to $233 by Tuesday, then crashed 77% to close at $45 on 4 April. Was this a breakout or a blowout? Fuelled by retail fervour, billionaire backing, and meme-stock mechanics, $NMAX’s journey is a masterclass in volatility. Beneath the chaos lies a critical question, can Newsmax evolve from a speculative darling into a sustainable media player, or is it doomed to fade as fast as it flared? Let’s cut through the noise with a no-holds-barred blend of fundamentals, technicals, and fearless foresight. Financials: Growth at a Steep Price Newsmax’s financials paint a picture of ambition clashing with reality. In 2024, revenue climbed 26% year-over-year to $171 million, a respectable uptick for a company aiming to disrupt the conservative media landscape. But the shine fades quickly, the company posted a $72 million net loss, up from $65 million in 2023, signalling that growth comes at a steep cost. Negative cash flow of $48.69 million in 2024 highlights the strain. At a market cap of $4.75 billion, $NMAX trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of ~28, towering over established peers like Fox Corporation (P/S ~1.5) and even niche players like Rumble (P/S ~10). This valuation screams speculation, not stability. Advertising, accounting for 64% of 2024 revenue, is a lifeline, but one exposed to economic headwinds. Trump’s proposed tariffs, which economists warn could slow U.S. growth, threaten to crimp ad budgets. Worse still, a $1.6 billion lawsuit from Dominion Voting Systems looms large, alleging defamation tied to Newsmax’s 2020 election coverage. Legal costs could drain reserves, and a loss could be devastating. 🔑 Key Metrics • Revenue: $171 million (2024), +26% YoY • Net Loss: $72 million (2024), up from $65 million (2023) • Cash Flow: -$48.69 million (2024) • P/S Ratio: ~28 (vs. Fox’s 1.5, Rumble’s 10) • Legal Risk: $1.6 billion lawsuit pending Technicals: Volatility in Full Swing If Newsmax’s fundamentals hint at trouble, its technicals scream chaos. The stock’s rollercoaster, a 735% debut surge, a 179% Tuesday encore, and a 77% Wednesday collapse, reads like a trader’s fever dream. By 4 April, it closed at $45 (down 27.56% from $62.12), with a daily range of $42.33 to $68.00 and 6.02 million shares traded. A tight float of 7.5 million shares and 30,000 retail buyers cement its meme-stock status. A 1-minute candlestick chart lays bare the carnage, an early peak near $68, a plunge to $42.33, and a late bounce to $44.50. Short-term moving averages (VMA1: $43.81, VMA5: $44.08) sit just below, pointing to fragile support at $43.72, a level tested and briefly broken. The MACD (DIF: -0.0762, DEA: -0.0639, MACD: -0.0247) signals bearish momentum, though a narrowing gap hints the sell-off may be losing steam. The ARBR indicator (BR: 51.56, AR: 63.99) flags overbought conditions, consistent with the correction. Volume tells a nuanced story, daily turnover has slipped from 10 million shares at the peak to 6 million, suggesting retail frenzy is cooling but not dead. Resistance looms at $44.40. Without a catalyst, $NMAX faces more turbulence than trend. Longer-term, $35 (post-IPO low) is a key support, while $100 looms as a psychological ceiling. 🔑 Key Levels • Support: $42.33 (short-term), $35.00 (post-IPO low) • Resistance: $68.00 (short-term), $100.00 (psychological) • MACD: Bearish, but narrowing • Volume: Declining from peak, still robust Facing the Giants: Newsmax in Context Newsmax is a minnow among media sharks. Fox News, with $14 billion in 2024 revenue and $1.2 billion in net income, dwarfs Newsmax’s $171 million top line and $72 million loss. Fox’s diversified portfolio, news, sport, entertainment, offers stability Newsmax can’t match. Rumble (RUM), a conservative streaming platform, boasts a $1.5 billion market cap and a P/S of ~10, making $NMAX’s valuation look inflated. One America News Network (OANN), a privately held rival, reportedly runs leaner operations on a smaller scale. The industry backdrop is grim, cable news battles cord-cutting and digital migration, while ad revenue, Newsmax’s core, hinges on economic health. Trump’s tariffs could worsen this, squeezing ad budgets. Yet, Newsmax’s IPO frenzy, powered by retail zeal and a 25% stake from billionaire Thomas Peterffy (now worth ~$1 billion at $45/share, down from $6.2 billion at $233), taps a unique tailwind, populist momentum tied to Trump’s influence. The Peterffy Factor: Billionaire Bullishness or Strategic Play? Thomas Peterffy, founder of Interactive Brokers and worth over $50 billion, owns 25% of Newsmax, 23 million shares. At the IPO peak, his stake hit $6.2 billion. At $45, it’s ~$1 billion. His involvement adds gravitas, but his motives are murky. A financial titan, not a media mogul, Peterffy may see $NMAX as a play for influence or a calculated bet on disruption. If he injects capital or steers a pivot, his role could be a lifeline. For now, it’s a wildcard. Legal Landmine: The Dominion Dilemma The $1.6 billion Dominion lawsuit is a ticking time bomb. A loss could gut Newsmax’s balance sheet. Even a settlement could cost hundreds of millions. Fox’s $787 million payout in a similar case sets a grim benchmark. Newsmax, with thinner cash reserves, faces a steeper reckoning. Scenarios • Cheap Settlement (<$100M), stock rallies to $60–$70 • Mid-Range Settlement ($300–$500M), cash burn spikes, stock slips to $30 • Full Loss ($1.6B), bankruptcy looms, stock tanks below $10 Legal updates will be make-or-break. Stay tuned. Forward Scenarios: Three Paths for $NMAX • Bullish Case (20% Probability), a cheap lawsuit settlement (<$100M), Trump’s 2024 run supercharges viewership, and ad revenue soars. Peterffy bolsters stability. Target: $80–$100 by mid-2026 • Bearish Case (60% Probability), lawsuit damages top $500M, tariffs gut ad revenue (64% of 2024 total), and losses spiral. Meme hype fades. Target: Sub-$20 • Turnaround Case (20% Probability), Newsmax pivots to subscriptions, tapping its loyal base. Modest success (e.g. 500,000 subscribers at $10/month) adds $60M annually. Target: $60–$75 Catalysts • Lawsuit rulings • Trump campaign milestones • Subscription trials The Contrarian Lens: A Meme Stock with Legs? Here’s the twist, $NMAX’s meme-stock status could be its edge. A $4.75 billion valuation for a cash-burning outfit is absurd by traditional metrics, but retail armies defy logic. If Newsmax leverages its Trump-loyal base for subscriptions or exclusive content, it could shift from volatility play to niche contender. It’ll never be Fox, but it doesn’t need to be. The contrarian bet? This isn’t just hype, it’s a cultural force with untapped potential. Tariff Threat: A Hidden Risk Trump’s tariffs could slash corporate ad budgets, hitting Newsmax where it hurts. A 20% cut in ad spend shaves ~$22 million off 2024 revenue, a 13% blow to the top line. For a company losing $72 million, that’s a serious dent. Trading Strategy: Play the Catalysts • Long-Term Investors, hold off until the lawsuit resolves and losses shrink. High risk, murky reward • Traders, ride volatility with discipline. Entry: $43–$44 on settlement rumours or viewership pops. Exit: $62–$68 if resistance holds, or sub-$40 on legal hits. Stop-Loss: 10–15% below entry • Speculators, lottery territory, keep positions small (2–5% of risk capital) Triggers • Lawsuit updates • Trump 2024 milestones • Subscription moves Final Take: Signal or Sideshow? Newsmax is a paradox, a money-losing media player with a $4.75 billion valuation, propped up by Trump’s mystique and retail zeal, yet weighed down by lawsuits and losses. Its technicals flash red, its fundamentals demand caution, but its cultural pull hints at staying power. For now, it’s a high-wire act best suited for the bold. The parting shot, in a market where memes can mint fortunes, can Newsmax turn chaos into conquest, or will it flame out as fast as it flared? The tape’s still running. What to Watch 1. Dominion lawsuit outcome 2. Viewership trends 3. Ad revenue shifts 📢 Don’t miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets 🚀📈 I’m obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Let’s outsmart the market and stack those gains together! 🍀🍀🍀 Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀 @Mig, you weren’t wrong about the paper bag. Honestly, it should’ve come with the IPO, right between the prospectus and the dreams of grandeur. $NMAX didn’t trade, it convulsed. Wall Street calling it performance art feels about right 👍