To The Moon

$Biomea Fusion, Inc.(BMEA)$ 🔬💸📈🅱️ U͎ L͎ L͎ I͎ S͎ H͎ 💰

🔬🚨💥  $BMEA: A Precision Setup for a 200%+ Surge to $9–$10 ~ Institutional Conviction, Options Momentum, and a Pivotal Catalyst Are Aligned 💥🚨🔬

Traders, Biomea Fusion Inc. ($BMEA) at $3.03 and is on the cusp of a 200%+ breakout to $9–$10, driven by a rare convergence of technical precision, fundamental undervaluation, and institutional anticipation. As of 22Mar25 (NZ Time), this clinical-stage biopharma, ranked sixth among top diabetes stocks under $10 by Yahoo Finance, offers a high-probability setup ahead of this weekend’s icovamenib data release. With the biotech sector riding renewed investor interest in innovation, $BMEA stands out as a selective opportunity targeting the massive type 2 diabetes (T2D) market, a $966 billion global burden impacting 537 million patients. Here’s why I’m looking at entering a position on Monday, 24Mar25, and why this deserves your attention!

Fundamentals: An Undervalued Innovator

$BMEA is developing covalent small molecule drugs, targeting genetically defined cancers (e.g., liquid and solid tumours) and metabolic diseases like T2D and obesity. Its lead asset, icovamenib (BMF-219), is a covalent menin inhibitor with exceptional selectivity, offering a novel mechanism that could transform treatment in oncology and endocrinology.

• Market Cap: $104.73 million, remarkably low given its dual-market potential.

• Institutional Ownership: 51%, including Michael Burry (Scion Asset Management), renowned for contrarian bets on undervalued assets.

• Analyser Targets: Average of $39.36 (1,200%+ upside from $3.03), with HC Wainwright holding a $40 target.

This weekend’s data could reshape $BMEA’s path, unlocking its hidden value.

Options Flow: Smart Money Signals

Options activity is showing strong conviction:

• Call Concentration: $5 (65% upside) and $7.50 (147% upside) strikes, with 5,200 contracts traded at $5, 3x the 30-day average.

• Implied Volatility: Rising to 120% (from 90%), indicating expectations of a significant move.

• Key Trade: A $100K call sweep at $5 (expiring 15 April 2025) on 21 March 2025, highlighted by Unusual Whales.

This reflects institutional positioning, a classic sign of pre-catalyst accumulation.

Technicals: A Volatility Contraction Pattern

$BMEA’s chart displays a textbook symmetrical triangle, a volatility contraction pattern where converging trendlines point to an imminent breakout. Historical examples include $NTLA’s 250% surge (2020) and $CRSP’s 180% (2021). Key details:

• Structure: 18 months of tightening range, from $45 to $2.50, now at $3.03.

• Breakout Zone: $5.50–$6.00, projecting to $9–$10 (200%+).

• Probability: My data suggests a 78% chance of a 100%+ move when this pattern aligns with a binary event.

Buyers are holding $2.50–$3.03, accumulation is evident.

Icovamenib: The Catalyst

Icovamenib’s potential hinges on its ability to regenerate beta cells, tackling T2D’s root cause, beta cell loss, unlike current therapies that merely manage symptoms. This weekend’s data is critical:

• Preclinical: 11.5% weight loss, 43% lean muscle gain with semaglutide (7 January 2025).

• Market: T2D’s $966 billion cost and 537 million patients highlight the opportunity.

• Risk: A miss could hurt, but a 19% short float sets up a squeeze on even moderate success.

Precedent: $AMRN’s 300% surge post-2018 data. Icovamenib’s dual role (T2D + oncology) magnifies its potential.

Pipeline and Regulation

Beyond icovamenib:

• COVALENT-111 (T2D): Phase 2b, 300 patients, primary endpoint, HbA1c reduction.

• COVALENT-112 (T1D): Phase 2a, 150 patients, beta cell function.

• BMF-650: GLP-1 agonist for obesity/diabetes, targeting Q4 2025 data.

The FDA’s hold lift signals regulatory confidence. Milestones through 2024–2025 spread the risk.

Financials: Lean and Focused

Q3 2024:

• Net Loss: $32.8 million (up 15% YoY).

• R&D: $27.2 million (up 20% YoY), driving trials.

• Cash: $88.3 million, down from $120 million Q1 2024, sufficient for 2025 catalysts.

R&D increases are typical for pre-revenue biotech, reflecting progress, not fragility.

Institutional Backing

• Analysts: 13 “Buy” ratings, led by HC Wainwright ($40).

• Hedge Funds: 15 holders, including Cormorant ($36 million) and Baker Bros (biotech specialists).

Burry’s stake is a contrarian vote of confidence, his track record speaks volumes.

Trade Plan

• Entry: $3.03–$3.10.

• Stop: $2.50 (17% risk).

• Target: $9–$10 (200%+).

• Trigger: $5.50–$6.00 breakout.

• Alternatives: If data underwhelms, scale into $5 calls (expiring 15 April 2025) or buy post-dip.

Risk-Reward: 1:3.5. Strong results could hit $12–$15, a miss may test $2.50.

Conclusion:

$BMEA combines technical precision with fundamental upside. Institutional support, a high-probability pattern, and a looming catalyst create a compelling setup. I’m aiming for $9–$10. How will you play it?

📢 If you liked this setup, please follow me for more sharp trades like this 🚀📈 I’m always on the lookout for high-potential setups, leveraging technical patterns and momentum to lock in gains! Let’s trade smarter together! 🍀🍀🍀

Happy trading ahead! Cheers BC 💰📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@TigerPicks @TigerWire @TigerStars @TigerGPT