To The Moon

Alright, here’s my boyish dragon take: $PayPal(PYPL)$ is sitting at under $70 a share with a market cap below $70 billion, and I think Everyone’s acting like this company’s just waiting to get crushed by apps and die. But hear me out—why would I still invest? Stick with me, and I’ll break it down. If you’ve got the patience, I bet you’ll see why I think this stock’s about to climb.

So, I’ve been keeping tabs on PayPal’s latest moves. They dropped big news at their Investors Day in late February—think of it as their “hey, investors, here’s the plan” moment. They’re streamlining everything, ditching low-profit stuff, and rolling all the high-margin goodies into one platform: PayPal Open. Small biz, big biz, whatever—you can use it for marketing, e-commerce, payments, the works. The old management couldn’t dream of this. Enter Alex Chriss, the CEO who’s been at it for just over a year. He’s shaking things up, pushing reforms, and pumping out innovations left and right.

The real kicker? Their long-term guidance. For 2025, they’re projecting 6–10% EPS growth, and by 2027, they’re aiming for 13–15%. That’s some serious momentum. Longer term? Over 20% growth. That’s bold. If they didn’t have a solid playbook, they wouldn’t dare say it. Chriss isn’t a big-talk, no-action guy—his CFO keeps him in check. Historically, PayPal hits their targets, so I’m buying this for now. Why? Transaction margins are climbing, and their addressable market is basically infinite—especially in advertising, which is still under 1% tapped. Their report spells it out: the potential is massive.

Here’s the thing—PayPal’s not even under crazy growth pressure. They’re sitting on so much cash they’re like, “Let’s buy back our own stock.” Q4 earnings said $6 billion in buybacks for 2025—that’s 9% of their $68 billion market cap in one year. Wild, right? Then they drop a new $15 billion buyback plan on top of the $5 billion they haven’t finished yet. That’s 30% of their shares they’re planning to snatch back. I’ve never seen anything like it. If management didn’t believe in this stock price, no way they’d greenlight that. To me, it screams undervalued.

Oh, and Chriss went on this Crossroads show recently—random retail investor guy, not some flashy influencer. Shows he cares about us little guys. I watched it—he’s all in on turning 20 years of consumer data into a killer ad platform. If they nail that, it’s gonna be huge. Investors are hyped about this ad angle for a reason.

Valuation-wise, it’s a no-brainer. Price-to-cash-flow, P/E, EV/EBITDA—all at rock bottom. Q4 numbers say even with zero growth for a decade, it’s worth $75 just on current cash flow. And growth’s only speeding up from here—worst case is this year while Chriss gets his footing (he’s barely been there a year and a half). Give him time to turn it around. Investors bailing now? No patience. Me? I’m patient. I’m riding this playbook out, and I’m buying in small volume to play it smart.

The stock’s taken a hit lately—Trump tariffs spooked the market, sure, and 2025 guidance isn’t dazzling. But long-term? PayPal’s on the right track. I’m calling it: this stock is seriously, seriously undervalued. Thoughts?

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