To The Moon

Trump loves to win and recession is definitely not a win. But he did not want to reveal his perspectice of recession because it will be used as a chip against him during his tariffs negotiations with other countries.

Most of the current pain is short term.

Tariffs are one-time events that won’t impact inflation in a big way, and we are starting to see him refining the tariff policies as they progress. For instance, despite initial concerns, corporate executives have largely maintained a steady outlook, with 76% of reporting companies beating fourth-quarter earnings estimates, slightly below the five-year average. We see that he is more focused on reciprocal tariffs and open to talks with India and other countries to make adjustments through negotiations. Other countries have also expressed interest in dialogue.

Like what they are doing with DOGE, they implement a broader strategy first but keep refining their target. Similar to how DOGE fired the wrong department and had to pull back.

Trump adopts a hard stance before he commences talks. We will see him fine-tuning his policies to greater effect, like his build-the-wall negotiations in his first term.

Most of the current sentiments are indeed exaggerated by fake news, as Canada and Mexican tariffs are yet to be implemented, but conclusions have already been drawn. For example, despite concerns over tariffs, the U.S. economy's service sector continued to expand in February, with the Institute for Supply Management's index rising to 53.5% from 52.8% in January.

Moderate growth not recession not stagflation

Pulling back to moderate growth might actually help to lower inflation in the long run as corporates were too greedy to lower inflation if the consumer growth remains too strong.

There is a reason why the last stagflation was in 1970s, as we have a more diversified energy markets and the growth in SP500 companies are still strong despite numerous speculation. In 1970s, Nvidia’s 70% growth YoY for a company of this size would be considered a miracle.

Moreover, research indicates that corporate profits have significantly contributed to recent inflation. A report by the Economic Policy Institute found that, since the second quarter of 2020, corporate profits accounted for more than a third of price growth, which is more than double their usual contribution. This suggests that companies have been maintaining higher prices even as input costs have stabilized or decreased. (epi.org)

With the pressure of both government (tariffs) and consumers now, we will see a more balanced economy as government steps in to give some pressure. A lot of these companies take in cheap supplies but charges high prices causing inflation. We can see this example of Trump investigating if producers are holding back supplies of eggs.

US exceptionalism intact

Even with the globalist funds manipulating the market to go against Trump policies, we see how the tariffs take a toll on China’s recovery while America economy is still growing moderately.

Furthermore, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has dismissed recession concerns, emphasizing expectations of substantial growth in the upcoming years. He highlighted that the tariffs imposed on nations like China could be lifted if specific conditions are met, suggesting a strategic approach to international trade that prioritizes domestic economic health.

These developments illustrate that, despite external attempts to influence U.S. economic policies, the nation's strategic measures have effectively challenged China's economic recovery while sustaining America's moderate growth.

America’s addiction to low costs

The American Dream has traditionally emphasized innovation, quality, and entrepreneurship over merely seeking low prices. It does seem that the American consumers are addicted to Temu and other Chinese companies low cost strategies, which in turn hurts American small businesses.

For example, there have been numerous reports of Chinese manufacturers copying designs from American artisans and mass-producing them at lower costs. For instance, Etsy sellers have reported instances where their original designs were replicated by overseas manufacturers, leading to significant business losses. (Reddit)

This trend not only threatens the viability of U.S. small businesses but also challenges the core values of the American Dream, shifting the focus from innovation and quality to merely seeking the lowest possible price.

Tariffs need to be more specific

One thing that needs to be improved is that tariffs need to be more specific and with more clarity. This is not decided by Trump but by his team. During his first term, many suppliers established factories in countries with fewer tariffs. This clarity in supply chains allows companies to decide where to relocate their operations, which might not necessarily be to America. Consequently, allies countries like Japan and South Korea could benefit from such shifts.

Creation of Jobs

The transition from DOGE layoffs is currently underway, and while it's too early to fully assess the impact of President Trump's bolstered investments, there are indications of potential positive outcomes

In 2025, several major companies have announced significant U.S. investments. Eli Lilly revealed a $27 billion plan to open four new manufacturing sites, creating 13,000 jobs. Apple committed $500 billion over five years, aiming to create 20,000 new jobs and establish AI server manufacturing facilities. TSMC plans to invest $100 billion over four years in three advanced semiconductor plants and two packaging sites in Arizona, generating thousands of jobs. Additionally, Shopify, by listing a New York headquarters in a U.S. regulatory filing, has raised speculation about a potential move to the U.S., fueling concerns about capital flight from Canada. These investments highlight a strong commitment to creating employment opportunities in the U.S.

Investors who are choosing to ignore these positives are clearly trying to create mayhem by over-exaggerating the negatives.

Misinformation and market manipulation rampage

We are not surprised if the current market fall involves foreign adversaries trying to manipulate U.S. market sentiments, as over the years, the amount of foreign capital influx into U.S. indexes has been substantial. For instance, in October 2024, the U.S. recorded a net Treasury International Capital (TIC) inflow of $203.6 billion, with foreign private investors contributing $220.0 billion, while foreign official institutions saw outflows of $16.4 billion.

We have seen how fake news can affect U.S. elections and are not surprised if Democrats and foreign adversaries are attempting similar tactics now.

This correction is healthy if it aligns with the moderate growth we are observing. Recession fears are overplayed, the impact of tariffs on inflation is exaggerated, and the greed for growth needs to be moderated to ensure sustainable economic development.

Recession? No

Fake news of recession by adversaries? Yes. Trump loves to win and recession is not a win.

And let just say that we wouldn't be surprised to see Elon Musk buying back Tesla stocks after the drop, after all Nvidia bought back its own stocks during Deepseek dip. This dip is obviously fabricated not based on real data.