To The Moon

🚨🚨Global Equity Markets 11 Feb 

US Markets

  - **S&P 500**: Flat near 6,000 amid mixed sentiment. Tech stocks (Nvidia +3%, AMD +2%) rebounded on AI optimism, offsetting tariff jitters. Resistance at 6,123.30; support at 5,923.40 .  

  - **Nasdaq**: Gained 0.8%, lifted by semiconductor stocks. **Boeing** (-2%) lagged on FAA safety concerns, while **Apple** (+1.5%) rose on iPhone 16 demand .  

  - **Dow Jones**: Fell 0.3% as industrials (Caterpillar -4%) slumped on weak global machinery demand .  

Asia/Europe  

  - **Hang Seng**: Jumped 1.8% on Alibaba (+5%) and Tencent (+3%) gains, shrugging off US-China trade tensions. Key resistance at 22,000 .  

  - **Nikkei 225**: Dropped 0.6% as yen strength (USD/JPY 150.50) hurt exporters. Support at 37,800 .  

  - **DAX**: Up 0.4% on strong German factory data, but auto stocks (Volkswagen -1.5%) dragged on EV demand worries .  

Forex & Central Banks

- **USD (DXY)**: Dipped 0.2% to 107.80 ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and US CPI data. Markets price a 60% chance of a May rate cut .  

- **EUR/USD**: Rose 0.3% to 1.0650, testing resistance at 1.0700. ECB’s Lagarde signaled cautious rate cuts, supporting the euro .  

- **USD/JPY**: Fell to 150.50 as BOJ hinted at ending negative rates by April. Key support at 149.00 .  

- **EM Currencies**: Indian rupee (+0.5%) and Brazilian real (+0.8%) rallied on weaker USD and commodity gains .  

Commodities

- **Oil (Brent)**: Rose 1.2% to $76.50 on Middle East tensions (Houthi attacks) and OPEC+ supply discipline. Resistance at $78 .  

- **Gold**: Hit a record high of $2,900/oz as safe-haven demand surged ahead of US CPI data. Next target: $2,933 .  

- **Aluminum**: Prices stabilized at $2,500/ton despite Trump’s 25% tariff threat. Post-Chinese New Year demand revival in focus .  

Key Events & Data Today

1. **Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony (10:00 ET)**: Focus on inflation outlook and rate-cut timing. Dovish signals could boost equities and gold.  

2. **US January CPI (8:30 ET)**:  

   - **Forecast**: Headline CPI +0.3% MoM; Core CPI +0.4% MoM.  

   - A hotter print may delay rate cuts, spooking markets.  

3. **US-China Trade Talks**: Deadline for new 10% tariffs looms; retaliation risks weigh on tech and industrials .  

Key Risks & Trends

1. **Tariff Escalation**: US aluminum/steel tariffs and China’s antitrust probes on US tech firms threaten global trade .  

2. **AI Arms Race**: China’s DeepSeek challenges US tech dominance, pressuring semiconductor valuations .  

3. **Fed Policy Uncertainty**: Sticky inflation (core CPI ~3%) limits easing scope, keeping bond yields elevated .  

Technical Outlook 

- **S&P 500**: Neutral near 6,000. Break above 6,123.30 could target 6,200; failure risks drop to 5,850 .  

- **Gold (XAU/USD)**: Bullish above $2,850. Resistance at $2,933; support at $2,800 .  

- **USD/JPY**: Bearish below 151.00. Next support at 149.00 (200-day MA) .  

Conclusion: 

Today’s markets hinge on **US CPI data** and **Powell’s testimony**. Equities face a tug-of-war between tech resilience and tariff risks, while gold and oil benefit from geopolitical tensions. Watch:  

- **CPI reaction**: A hot print could trigger equity selloffs and USD strength.  

- **Fed messaging**: Dovish tones may revive rate-cut bets, boosting risk assets.  

- **Tariff headlines**: Escalation risks threaten tech and industrial sectors.  

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