To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

The concepts of belief, faith, and commitment are often associated with things like a spouse or religion, but in this case, we're talking about Tesla stock. To invest in Tesla, you need all three: belief, faith, and commitment. Why? Because despite the fact that Tesla's stock has surged 113% over the past year and the price-to-earnings ratio sits at a staggering 160, there are some concerning numbers when you dig into the company's performance. For instance, Tesla's revenue growth was only 2%, and their automobile revenues, which make up the bulk of their income, dropped by 8% year-over-year. Yet, that doesn’t seem to be stopping investors, because they’re betting on the future—on products that Tesla believes will drive massive revenue growth, like the Cybertruck, full self-driving technology, and the Optimus robot. Even with Tesla’s current high valuation, which some might consider the most overvalued stock they've ever seen, the hope is that these new innovations will lead to huge gains down the line.

AI Driving & Cyber truck

Despite these mixed results, there’s excitement surrounding Tesla’s future, especially with upcoming launches. The company is already preparing for the Cybertruck's production in 2026 and the potential rollout of unsupervised full self-driving in Austin, Texas, this year. If successful, this could transform the landscape, particularly affecting companies like Uber and Lyft. However, there are regulatory hurdles to clear in states like California, where political tension could delay or complicate progress.

Tesla's track record shows they’ve made strides in safety, with one crash per 6 million miles driven in full self-driving mode, compared to one per million for human drivers. While the technology isn’t perfect yet, especially in city driving, Tesla owners are still excited about the potential of things like Robo taxis—where your Tesla could earn money for you by joining a fleet. All in all, it's a high-risk, high-reward game for those who believe in Tesla’s long-term vision.

Tesla Robot 2026?

If the Optimus robot is ready by 2026, it would be surprising, but that’s the direction Tesla is heading. There aren’t many companies that could pull this off—some startups might have the idea, but they lack Tesla’s manufacturing capacity, battery technology, and software all in one package. Tesla has the complete ecosystem to make it happen. Either you believe in this vision or you don’t. Tesla plans to sell Optimus robots to other companies starting in the second half of 2026, so we’re just over a year away from that possibility. Potential buyers could include large companies like Walmart and Amazon, or even those in construction, which might face labor shortages due to changes in the workforce.

Elon Musk has made some bold claims, saying they plan to ramp up Optimus robot production faster than anything ever seen before. He’s throwing around numbers like producing 100 million robots annually in the not-so-distant future. With Musk, you have to take these timelines with a grain of salt. But his boldest statement came when he said Optimus could generate over $10 trillion in revenue. Some of you might be skeptical of this, but if Tesla can mass-produce millions of these robots, there are definitely companies that would need them—think of logistics giants like UPS, FedEx, Amazon, or even construction firms.

While 100 million units might sound far-fetched in the short term, the demand could be huge. Even if Musk is off by a large margin, let’s say the robot is only worth $500 billion in sales. With the right margins, Tesla stock could still be vastly undervalued, making it one of the best-performing stocks globally.

Financial Analysis

On the financial side, there are areas of Tesla doing well. The energy and storage business saw a 113% increase, with new factories being built in China and plans for another in the U.S. However, other areas, like the Model 3 and Model Y, saw declines in sales—8% down for those models, though other models were up 25%, likely boosted by Cybertruck excitement. The supercharger network is still growing, but at a slower rate than before, with growth now in the teens after previously being in the mid-30s. I've noticed that growth here in California, as the supercharger spots sometimes feel a bit scarce, especially during peak times.

The supercharger network is pretty well-established in California, though it may be different where you live. I’m not a fan of company graphs; you’ll often see other channels just regurgitating what the CEO has shown you, which doesn’t add much value. However, there was one key visual Tesla presented that caught my attention: a graph showing the average cost of their vehicles. Since Q1 of 2023, this cost has been steadily dropping, which suggests Tesla is positioning themselves to produce these vehicles more affordably and could even introduce a cheaper car soon. That said, when you look at the prices of Teslas—new, used, leased, or financed—they’re not overly expensive. If you can't afford a Tesla, I’d argue you need to evaluate your career situation. For context, the current Model Y starts around $34,000 (before incentives), though a new version launching now costs around $112,000, thanks to more features. The price is higher, so that might impact short-term sales, but eventually, Tesla might release a more affordable model in the $30,000 range.

Looking at Tesla’s revenue, it wasn’t exactly impressive. Last quarter, their gross profit came in at $4.2 billion—down from $5 billion the year before—and their income from operations dropped significantly to $1.6 billion, down from over $2.7 billion. However, their energy and storage business is doing well, bringing in $3 billion in revenue, up from $2.4 billion last quarter. This shows Tesla’s ability to scale new ideas and turn them into profits. In fact, the energy business now makes up about 50% of Tesla's income from operations, which is a positive sign for their diversification.

Regardless of what you think about Elon Musk, he’s proven to be a brilliant operator, especially in a tough environment for car companies. While traditional carmakers like Ford are struggling, Tesla continues to thrive, partly thanks to their expanding energy business. Tesla’s R&D and operating costs have been in line with previous quarters, and despite some increases, they’re still profitable.

Their balance sheet is solid, with plenty of cash, so there's no cause for concern there. Technically, Tesla is facing resistance at the $420 mark—several attempts to break past that point in the past month have failed. If Tesla can close above $420 for several days, it could signal a breakout. However, it’s more likely they’ll hover in this range or pull back before making another attempt.

Conclusion

When it comes to investing in Tesla, you really need to believe in the company's future potential—specifically in things like the Cybertruck, Robo-taxis, and unsupervised full self-driving. If you think they can pull off these innovations, this stock could be a buy on pullbacks. But if you don’t believe in the company's vision, shorting Tesla might be the way to go. If you can’t handle that risk, then it's probably best to stay out of the conversation.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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