To The Moon

Key Fundamental Facts and Figures

Revenue

Q2 2024 Revenue:

Total Revenue: $166.0 million (25% year-over-year growth)​

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Genomics Revenue: $112.3 million (22.2% growth year-over-year)​

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Data and Services Revenue: $53.6 million (32.5% growth year-over-year)​

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Q3 2024 Revenue:

Total Revenue: $180.9 million (33.0% year-over-year growth)​

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Genomics Revenue: $116.4 million (20.3% growth year-over-year, driven by 23.9% unit growth)​

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Data and Services Revenue: $64.5 million (64.4% growth year-over-year, led by Insights with 86.6% growth)​

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Full-Year Revenue Projection:

Expected to reach ~$700 million, representing approximately 32% annual growth​

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Net Profit / Loss

Q2 2024:

Net Loss: $(552.2) million.

Major contributor: $493.1 million in stock compensation and related employer payroll taxes tied to the IPO​

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Q3 2024:

Net Loss: $(75.8) million.

Includes $22.2 million in stock compensation expenses and related taxes​

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Margins

Q2 2024 Margins:

Genomics Gross Margin: 39.2% (down from 48.9% in Q2 2023).

Data and Services Gross Margin: 58.7% (down from 65.9% in Q2 2023).

Adjusted EBITDA: $(31.2) million (improved from $(36.9) million in Q1 2024)​

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Q3 2024 Margins:

Genomics Gross Margin: 48.4% (down from 51.9% in Q3 2023).

Data and Services Gross Margin: 76.8% (up from 60.5% in Q3 2023).

Adjusted EBITDA: $(21.8) million (improved from $(36.2) million in Q3 2023)​

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Cash Position

Q2 2024:

Ending Cash and Equivalents: $478.8 million​

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Q3 2024:

Ending Cash and Marketable Securities: $466.3 million​

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Significant Events

IPO in Q2 2024:

Raised $410.7 million at $37 per share​

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Acquisition of Ambry Genetics in Q3 2024:

Purchase Price: $600 million ($375 million cash + $225 million in stock).

Ambry’s 2024 Revenue: Expected >$300 million with EBITDA >$40 million​

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Notable Partnerships:

BioNTech: Collaboration leveraging Tempus’ TCR dataset.

Merck EMD: Three-year strategic agreement extension​

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Data Points Requiring Verification or Additional Context

Growth Rate Assumptions:

Revenue growth projections for full-year 2024 (~32%) align with Q2 and Q3 performance but depend heavily on continued success in the Insights and genomics segments. Any slowdown in these areas could impact the projection​

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Margins on Data Licensing:

Insights (data licensing) showed 86.6% growth in Q3. The sustainability of this growth needs further context, such as competitive positioning and client retention rates​

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Ambry Genetics Integration:

The expected revenue and EBITDA from Ambry are significant. However, integration risks or unforeseen costs might reduce realized benefits​

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Declining Genomics Margins:

The drop in genomics margins requires deeper analysis to assess whether this is due to temporary operational costs or structural pricing pressure in the market​

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Conclusion

Tempus AI is experiencing robust growth, particularly in data services and partnerships, but its profitability is hindered by high expenses and declining genomics margins. The ambitious revenue target for 2024 appears achievable but hinges on sustaining momentum in high-margin segments. Key areas to monitor include the success of the Ambry acquisition, competitive dynamics in data licensing, and efforts to stabilize genomics margins.

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