Tesla Missed Q4 Deliveries—Time to Snag a Deal or Sit Tight?
Alright, let’s talk Tesla. Missing Q4 deliveries isn’t a small thing—those 495,570 vehicles were below the 512,277 Wall Street wanted. Naturally, the stock took a 4% hit pre-market. So, what’s the play here if you’re like me, sitting on the sidelines with no current position?
First off, Tesla under $400 is tempting. I mean, it’s been a while since we’ve seen these levels. But let’s not get trigger-happy just because the price looks attractive. Here’s my thought process as I build my plan for 2025:
1. Is This Just a Blip or a Bigger Problem?
Look, Tesla missing deliveries is a bit of a red flag. It’s not just about the number—it’s about why they missed. Was it supply chain hiccups? Softening demand? Competition creeping in? These factors could hint at whether this is a short-term issue or a sign of slowing growth.
For now, I’m leaning toward a blip. Tesla’s EV dominance and expanding product lineup (hello, Cybertruck) should keep them in the game. But I’ll need to see Q1 numbers in 2025 before jumping in fully.
2. My Entry Price? $370 or Below
If I’m buying the dip, I want a real bargain—none of this catching-a-falling-knife nonsense. $370 feels like a sweet spot where the risk-reward makes sense. Why? That’s around Tesla’s stronger support zone based on recent technicals. Plus, it leaves some wiggle room if broader market jitters send it lower.
3. Fundamentals Over Hype
Tesla’s got solid long-term fundamentals—profitability, brand power, and innovation are all there. But let’s not forget its valuation is still sky-high. Even under $400, it’s not “cheap” by traditional metrics. So, I’ll need to see sustained margin improvements (especially with price cuts) and clarity on future growth to justify buying in.
4. The Macro Picture
We’re heading into 2025 with rising interest rates and recession fears. Growth stocks like Tesla might take more punches if the Fed stays hawkish. I’m keeping cash on hand in case we see broader market corrections. Tesla could easily test lower levels if things get uglier.
Final Thoughts
For now, I’m holding off but keeping Tesla on my radar. If it dips to $370 or below and the macro picture isn’t falling apart, I’ll start nibbling. Until then, I’m watching Q1 2025 deliveries, Cybertruck updates, and how they manage margins.
What about you? What’s your price for buying the dip? Or are you steering clear altogether?
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