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W19832009
2021-04-25

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The U.S. dollar is released, the world is flooded, and the strongest inflation annihilates all beings!

1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的

The U.S. dollar is released, the world is flooded, and the strongest inflation annihilates all beings!

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":375315142,"tweetId":"375315142","gmtCreate":1619307848286,"gmtModify":1704722172617,"author":{"id":3581772836193010,"idStr":"3581772836193010","authorId":3581772836193010,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?‍♂️</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?‍♂️</body></html>","text":"?‍♂️","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375315142","repostId":1130451341,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130451341","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619413290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130451341?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 13:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The U.S. dollar is released, the world is flooded, and the strongest inflation annihilates all beings!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130451341","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的","content":"At a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. This master of economics with many works blurted out that there is no free lunch in the world. This is my economic theory all.On the other hand, in the past few weeks, the dual wave of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States has instantly shifted the attention of the global market from deflation to inflation, almost causing blood shed in the stock and bond markets. Last week, as Powell suddenly began to release hawkish signals in an interview, this gluttonous feast is afraid to enter the second half.Someone must be prepared to pay the bill before the real wine store breaks up. However, how big is the order and who will buy it?As the United States slowly begins to bargain-hunting global assets, the US dollar has started to return. In order to resist the impact, emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a wave of rate hike. As the * of currency flows to the world, it's time to taste the words of former US Treasury Secretary Connelly: The US dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.In this issue, we will take a look at the ins and outs of this huge stimulus in the United States. We will focus on three things:First, the United States launched an unprecedented fiscal and monetary double stimulus. Why did it take such a heavy hand?Second, the super stimulus may cause the US economy to overheat significantly?Third, the United States releases water and the world pays the bill. How will this big release end?01. How fierce is this round of excitement in the United StatesHow big is the fiscal stimulus? After the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus in April last year, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus at the end of the year; By this year, Biden passed the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the U.S. GDP last year. In the blink of an eye, the latest 2.25 trillion infrastructure has been officially announced. Not counting the last item that has not been officially introduced, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached 5 trillion yuan. In vertical comparison, it is six times that of the Obama administration's nearly 800 billion yuan stimulus in the two years after the 2008 financial crisis; Horizontally, this figure accounts for 25% of U.S. GDP, far exceeding Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of monetary policy, how big is this round of QE? During the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve took six years and three rounds of QE, and only purchased more than US $3 trillion in assets in total. This time, QE only took six months to easily reach this scale.If the wealth stimulus in 2008 was a left-handed shuriken and a right-handed revolver, this time it was a two-shot cannon. But why do both ends of U.S. fiscal and monetary policies have to increase their horsepower in a storm this time?Let's take a look at finances first. The passage of the latest 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. First of all, this figure far exceeds everyone's expectations, because when Biden first proposed this plan, the stimulus figure supported by the Republican Party was only over 600 billion, a difference of 1.3 trillion. And Biden has always claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate before, so everyone thinks that he will make a compromise, and the final water release should be around $900 billion.But unexpectedly, Biden suddenly carried out a \"overlord's hard bow\" operation and forcibly passed a plan called the \"budget reconciliation process\". Simply put, it greatly reduces the number of votes originally needed to pass the stimulus bill in the Senate, and only needs more than half to pass it. Therefore, when the 1.9 trillion yuan is voted in the future, even if the Republican Party unanimously opposes it, the Democratic Party, which accounts for the majority in the Senate, can forcibly get rid of the Republican Party and advance the bill on its own.The question is, why did Biden suddenly despite Republican opposition and rush to make 1.9 trillion a quick deal?Because during the financial crisis in 2008, Obama's Democratic Party suffered a big loss in fiscal stimulus.Twelve years ago, it was precisely because of the opposition of the Republican Party that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package shrank sharply. The original $2 trillion stimulus package finally passed less than 800 billion.But you know, this small amount of money is far from being able to make the economy recover quickly. In the next two years, the U.S. economy grew slowly, the recovery of the job market came to a standstill, and Obama's popular support rate plummeted. He quickly lost the House of Representatives in 2010 and was regained by the Republican Party.It can be said that in the last round of crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only caused the Democratic Party to lose power, but also caused the American economy to be stuck in the quagmire for longer.As Obama's deputy at the time, Biden was obviously unforgettable about this lesson. Therefore, after I came to power, I didn't stop doing it, and I came head-on for fear of repeating the same mistakes.So what about quantitative easing? From the above facts, QE in 2009 was the \"second-best choice\" made by the United States when the fiscal policy was bound by the Republican Party. And now that there is a lot of stimulus, why does Powell insist on not withdrawing from QE?We believe that there are roughly the following three reasons:First, Powell has never believed that there will be real severe inflationary pressure. As he said at the hearing of the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives not long ago, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. Now, just one inflation, how can it get out of control?Second, even if there is inflationary pressure, due to the reserve currency status of the US dollar, the consequences of inflation do not need to be borne by the United States alone. We'll get to that later.Third, the Fed is more worried about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.The so-called deflation means that the inflation rate drops below zero, and the whole society is in an environment of continuous and general decline in prices.Once people have the expectation that the price will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for when it is cheaper in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, it is now 50,000 per square meter, but you expect it to become 40,000 per square meter in two years. If conditions permit, it must be more cost-effective to buy it after two years. The same logic is true for enterprises to buy raw materials and invest in them.In this way, the desire to consume and invest is greatly reduced, and no amount of money in hand will help. More than 60% of U.S. GDP comes from consumption, demand is not enough, production naturally cannot go up, and the economy can only stagnate. How terrible the whole process is, just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\".In the short term, QE is definitely a powerful medicine to alleviate deflation expectations. It only needs to do one thing, that is, push up asset prices, especially the stock market and property market prices, thus creating the illusion that people are rich and the economy is thriving. Even if it doesn't turn into real cash flow, people may happily spend more, thus stimulating production and economic recovery. This is a completely psychological problem, and it works especially with the cooperation of fiscal policy.However, don't confuse the bull market with the strength of the real economy. Is QE drinking poison to quench thirst, and will it have a backlash on the economy in the future? This is another story, which we will talk about below.02. The U.S. economy may overheatAs we explained just now, the scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the US economy under such a huge stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising, the economy is overheating, and the overheating may be much more severe than the market expects. Because of the long-term and large-scale QE, inflation has unknowingly given huge upside space.In order to understand the impact of long-term QE, below, let's first explain the entire transmission path of macro-control of the central bank's monetary policy in the most simplest way; Go back to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system works under normal circumstances; Now that there is QE, how has the operation mode changed?We often say that the central bank throws money, but the money is definitely not directly thrown on the people, but first thrown to various financial institutions such as commercial banks to form the base currency. There are many methods, including adjusting the rediscount rate and adjusting the deposit reserve ratio. Buying and selling government bonds, which is most related to QE, is also one of them. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money, which is essentially to inject a sum of money into the financial system. base currency.Then, banks either put the money into the real economy, that is, lend it to enterprises and families through loans, so that they can produce and consume and promote economic growth; Or, if most enterprises and households are reluctant to borrow money, the remaining money will stay in the banking system in the form of savings, or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks capital drive, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excessive funds and trigger bubbles.In the pre-QE world, monetary policy has gone very smoothly on the above path, that is, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy can be well passed to enterprises and residents. During the economic recession, while proactive fiscal policies stabilize the confidence of enterprises and residents, the central bank lowers policy interest rates and provides liquidity to the banking industry; As soon as commercial banks have money, residents and enterprises are also encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus, and actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.Once the economy starts to recover, all the central bank has to do is gradually raise policy interest rates and curb credit, thereby preventing inflation. Therefore, it can be seen from the figure that the textbooks of base money, money supply and bank credit generally rise and fall together. In this process, the long-term interest rate also falls and rises with the policy interest rate. The United States and Europe before 2008 and Japan before 1990 were in this state.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But QE breaks that. As we just introduced, after the real estate bubble burst in 2008, due to the lack of fiscal stimulus, the United States had to walk on one leg and release a large amount of liquidity with monetary policy QE in an attempt to stimulate domestic demand, but it had little effect in the face of hard-hit families and enterprises. After the collateral price plummeted, people were not only reluctant to borrow money, but still had a lot of debt waiting to be repaid.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Therefore, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop of interest rates to 0, the liquidity of the United States has reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP has increased from 6% in 2008 to 25%; On the other hand, people hold huge savings but don't spend them. Not only did the funds not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but they also went back in the form of savings and loan repayments (the first picture), which delayed the economy and inflation (the second picture).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That is to say, if the whole monetary system still operates according to the mode before 2008, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If the money thrown by the central bank is compared to water, the current price is like a sponge wrapped in a layer of gum, which is difficult to get into water. Once the gum is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what happens once demand improves and people start to resume borrowing: bank credit and money supply may be several times higher than they are now, and prices may rise sharply, which will mean very high inflation.Under this expectation, once the economy shows signs of recovery and the high tension about inflationary pressures will aggravate the market's panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors are worried that the central bank will have to reduce bond purchases or even sell long-term bonds by then, so they also sell bonds to avoid risks. As a result, the long-term interest rates of QE countries will rise faster than without QE, further affecting the real economy. The economy, the stock market and the commodity market have caused serious fluctuations.The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly be. Gu Chaoming, chief researcher of Nomura Securities, proposed a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model during the third round of QE by the Federal Reserve in 2013, and discussed the degree of damage caused by long-term QE to the economy:Initially, the long-term interest rate decline in QE countries is much greater than that in non-QE countries, which means that the economic recovery will subsequently be faster (t1). However, as the economy picks up, monetary policy tightens, long-term interest rates rise rapidly, and some interest-sensitive industries are facing declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance again. After the economy recovered again, as the market refocused on the possibility of central banks absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates rose in a repeated cycle of so-called \"QE Trap\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In contrast, the decline in long-term interest rates in non-QE countries is gradual, which delays the onset of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster due to lower interest rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We can also draw this conclusion from the seven years of experience in gradually normalizing monetary policy in the United States before the epidemic. The last round of QE in the United States was gradually withdrawn in 2013, but what will happen if it doesn't? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.When the Federal Reserve first began to reduce its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. After that, despite nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) in October 2017, the inflation rate was still slowly rising. It is the same reason that deeply suppresses inflation and keeps inflation rising slowly, that is, the savings in the hands of households and businesses have never been digested. Without borrowing money, rising interest rates will not put pressure on them. This, in turn, shows that even if interest rates remain low at that time, economic activity may remain indifferent.Not only that, due to insufficient demand in the real economy, continued QE may lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, stirring up thick asset bubbles. In fact, the price of commercial real estate in the United States is now 50% higher than the last peak in 2007.Importantly, given that this round of QE is much faster than during the financial crisis, Gu Chaoming believes in a recently released research report that the U.S. economy has half stepped into the \"quantitative easing trap\". Once the private sector resumes borrowing, inflation will soar. High and long-term bond interest rates are imminent, and policy rates will need to be significantly increased to suppress inflation. In the prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate significantly to 22% to curb inflation. What level is needed today?03. The United States releases water and the world pays the bill. How will this big water release end?Just now we talked about the impact of the super water release on the US economy. Due to the existence of dollar hegemony, the influence of U.S. economic policy is by no means limited to the United States. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact, and it is likely that the whole world will pay for Americans.Among them, emerging markets may pay the biggest price, which has always been the case, and may also be one of the reasons why the United States releases water unscrupulously.In 2020, as the circulation of the U.S. dollar, as the global reserve currency, surged, countries started to release water to resist inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, and the United States used this to export inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase of house prices in various countries. According to OECD data, house prices in 89% of countries in the world rose last year, the highest ratio since 2000, especially in Turkey and Russia.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Now, with the increase of inflation expectations in the United States, the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields, and the dislocation of the recovery rhythm between the United States and emerging market countries, the U.S. dollar has begun to strengthen in stages, showing a return trend, and the situation has completely reversed. Emerging markets are forced to echo the old saying again: Americans print money, and the world pays.Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"rushed\" to advance rate hike before the Federal Reserve's action. In just one week before and after the U.S. interest rate meeting in March, many emerging market countries set off a wave of rate hike:On March 17th, the Central Bank of Brazil announced that it would raise the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (50 basis points expected).On March 18th, the Central Bank of Turkey announced that it would raise the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (the expected increase was 18%).On March 19, the Russian Central Bank announced a rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expectations remain at 4.25%).Not only that, indicators from emerging countries such as India, Argentina, Malaysian, Thai, and Korea all show that the market's expectations for rate hike are increasing, and there will be at least one rate hike from this year to the first half of next year.The main reason driving rate hike in emerging market countries is definitely the upward trend of inflation. From a general analysis point of view, the pressure of inflation still comes from the supply side. On the one hand, the production capacity of downstream consumer goods in such emerging market countries is inherently weak, and the impact of the epidemic has widened the gap between supply and demand, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, the proportion of food and transportation consumption in these countries is more than 40-50%, and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid rise in global petroleum products and food prices has further increased the imported inflation of emerging market countries. pressure.Chart: Inflation level reaches target policy area<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To a large extent, these emerging market countries with high openness and dependence on foreign trade can only passively accept the spillover of developed countries' economies and policies. However, compared with the rise in inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially Brazil and Turkey, where the unemployment rate is more than 10%, and the control of the epidemic is once again facing tests.Chart: It will take time for the economy to recover<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, in order to prevent the a vicious circle expectation of excessive return of the US dollar-depreciation of local currency-hyperinflation-domestic rate hike-falling asset prices-foreign debt exposure, emerging market countries have to take the lead in starting rate hike, firstly, to curb bubbles, and secondly, to stabilize capital outflows.Figure: The largest appreciation of currencies of various countries relative to the US dollar last year<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And those countries with a high proportion of foreign debt and a significant increase in asset markets may pay a higher price. Since the beginning of this year, Turkish overnight lending rate has been above 15%, and it is still difficult to curb international capital outflows. After the unexpected rate hike, the central bank governor stepped down, which even triggered a vicious circle expectations, asset prices plummeted and exchange rate collapsed. From the perspective of foreign debt, Chile, South Africa, etc. are followed.High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, shows that more capital enters the virtual economy than the recovery of the real economy, and there is also a greater risk of capital outflow. Such as Argentina and India. Rate hike in these countries is more of a lesser operation of two evils, and there is not much independence of monetary policy at all. Once there is a rapid capital outflow, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.As for the United States, with the return of funds and the increase of U.S.-European arbitrage trade demand for U.S. debt, the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will be eased.Chart: European and American interest rate spreads widened to the average level<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The ebb and flow of the US dollar. As the largest emerging market country, China will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint and currency independence. However, under the global storm, the pressure on asset prices can hardly be eased.Perhaps currency can be over-printed, but wealth cannot. When we look at the current situation of global currency from a more macro perspective, a deeper proposition is how to make good use of our own policy tools, and how to identify good assets as individuals, so that our labor remuneration can be more stably preserved. Understanding the historical responsibility of RMB in our hands and its value of keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare for the upcoming risks.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The U.S. dollar is released, the world is flooded, and the strongest inflation annihilates all beings!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe U.S. dollar is released, the world is flooded, and the strongest inflation annihilates all beings!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-04-26 13:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. This master of economics with many works blurted out that there is no free lunch in the world. This is my economic theory all.On the other hand, in the past few weeks, the dual wave of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States has instantly shifted the attention of the global market from deflation to inflation, almost causing blood shed in the stock and bond markets. Last week, as Powell suddenly began to release hawkish signals in an interview, this gluttonous feast is afraid to enter the second half.Someone must be prepared to pay the bill before the real wine store breaks up. However, how big is the order and who will buy it?As the United States slowly begins to bargain-hunting global assets, the US dollar has started to return. In order to resist the impact, emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a wave of rate hike. As the * of currency flows to the world, it's time to taste the words of former US Treasury Secretary Connelly: The US dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.In this issue, we will take a look at the ins and outs of this huge stimulus in the United States. We will focus on three things:First, the United States launched an unprecedented fiscal and monetary double stimulus. Why did it take such a heavy hand?Second, the super stimulus may cause the US economy to overheat significantly?Third, the United States releases water and the world pays the bill. How will this big release end?01. How fierce is this round of excitement in the United StatesHow big is the fiscal stimulus? After the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus in April last year, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus at the end of the year; By this year, Biden passed the 1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the U.S. GDP last year. In the blink of an eye, the latest 2.25 trillion infrastructure has been officially announced. Not counting the last item that has not been officially introduced, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached 5 trillion yuan. In vertical comparison, it is six times that of the Obama administration's nearly 800 billion yuan stimulus in the two years after the 2008 financial crisis; Horizontally, this figure accounts for 25% of U.S. GDP, far exceeding Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In terms of monetary policy, how big is this round of QE? During the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve took six years and three rounds of QE, and only purchased more than US $3 trillion in assets in total. This time, QE only took six months to easily reach this scale.If the wealth stimulus in 2008 was a left-handed shuriken and a right-handed revolver, this time it was a two-shot cannon. But why do both ends of U.S. fiscal and monetary policies have to increase their horsepower in a storm this time?Let's take a look at finances first. The passage of the latest 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. First of all, this figure far exceeds everyone's expectations, because when Biden first proposed this plan, the stimulus figure supported by the Republican Party was only over 600 billion, a difference of 1.3 trillion. And Biden has always claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate before, so everyone thinks that he will make a compromise, and the final water release should be around $900 billion.But unexpectedly, Biden suddenly carried out a \"overlord's hard bow\" operation and forcibly passed a plan called the \"budget reconciliation process\". Simply put, it greatly reduces the number of votes originally needed to pass the stimulus bill in the Senate, and only needs more than half to pass it. Therefore, when the 1.9 trillion yuan is voted in the future, even if the Republican Party unanimously opposes it, the Democratic Party, which accounts for the majority in the Senate, can forcibly get rid of the Republican Party and advance the bill on its own.The question is, why did Biden suddenly despite Republican opposition and rush to make 1.9 trillion a quick deal?Because during the financial crisis in 2008, Obama's Democratic Party suffered a big loss in fiscal stimulus.Twelve years ago, it was precisely because of the opposition of the Republican Party that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package shrank sharply. The original $2 trillion stimulus package finally passed less than 800 billion.But you know, this small amount of money is far from being able to make the economy recover quickly. In the next two years, the U.S. economy grew slowly, the recovery of the job market came to a standstill, and Obama's popular support rate plummeted. He quickly lost the House of Representatives in 2010 and was regained by the Republican Party.It can be said that in the last round of crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only caused the Democratic Party to lose power, but also caused the American economy to be stuck in the quagmire for longer.As Obama's deputy at the time, Biden was obviously unforgettable about this lesson. Therefore, after I came to power, I didn't stop doing it, and I came head-on for fear of repeating the same mistakes.So what about quantitative easing? From the above facts, QE in 2009 was the \"second-best choice\" made by the United States when the fiscal policy was bound by the Republican Party. And now that there is a lot of stimulus, why does Powell insist on not withdrawing from QE?We believe that there are roughly the following three reasons:First, Powell has never believed that there will be real severe inflationary pressure. As he said at the hearing of the Financial Services Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives not long ago, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. Now, just one inflation, how can it get out of control?Second, even if there is inflationary pressure, due to the reserve currency status of the US dollar, the consequences of inflation do not need to be borne by the United States alone. We'll get to that later.Third, the Fed is more worried about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.The so-called deflation means that the inflation rate drops below zero, and the whole society is in an environment of continuous and general decline in prices.Once people have the expectation that the price will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for when it is cheaper in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, it is now 50,000 per square meter, but you expect it to become 40,000 per square meter in two years. If conditions permit, it must be more cost-effective to buy it after two years. The same logic is true for enterprises to buy raw materials and invest in them.In this way, the desire to consume and invest is greatly reduced, and no amount of money in hand will help. More than 60% of U.S. GDP comes from consumption, demand is not enough, production naturally cannot go up, and the economy can only stagnate. How terrible the whole process is, just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\".In the short term, QE is definitely a powerful medicine to alleviate deflation expectations. It only needs to do one thing, that is, push up asset prices, especially the stock market and property market prices, thus creating the illusion that people are rich and the economy is thriving. Even if it doesn't turn into real cash flow, people may happily spend more, thus stimulating production and economic recovery. This is a completely psychological problem, and it works especially with the cooperation of fiscal policy.However, don't confuse the bull market with the strength of the real economy. Is QE drinking poison to quench thirst, and will it have a backlash on the economy in the future? This is another story, which we will talk about below.02. The U.S. economy may overheatAs we explained just now, the scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the US economy under such a huge stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising, the economy is overheating, and the overheating may be much more severe than the market expects. Because of the long-term and large-scale QE, inflation has unknowingly given huge upside space.In order to understand the impact of long-term QE, below, let's first explain the entire transmission path of macro-control of the central bank's monetary policy in the most simplest way; Go back to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system works under normal circumstances; Now that there is QE, how has the operation mode changed?We often say that the central bank throws money, but the money is definitely not directly thrown on the people, but first thrown to various financial institutions such as commercial banks to form the base currency. There are many methods, including adjusting the rediscount rate and adjusting the deposit reserve ratio. Buying and selling government bonds, which is most related to QE, is also one of them. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money, which is essentially to inject a sum of money into the financial system. base currency.Then, banks either put the money into the real economy, that is, lend it to enterprises and families through loans, so that they can produce and consume and promote economic growth; Or, if most enterprises and households are reluctant to borrow money, the remaining money will stay in the banking system in the form of savings, or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks capital drive, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excessive funds and trigger bubbles.In the pre-QE world, monetary policy has gone very smoothly on the above path, that is, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy can be well passed to enterprises and residents. During the economic recession, while proactive fiscal policies stabilize the confidence of enterprises and residents, the central bank lowers policy interest rates and provides liquidity to the banking industry; As soon as commercial banks have money, residents and enterprises are also encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus, and actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.Once the economy starts to recover, all the central bank has to do is gradually raise policy interest rates and curb credit, thereby preventing inflation. Therefore, it can be seen from the figure that the textbooks of base money, money supply and bank credit generally rise and fall together. In this process, the long-term interest rate also falls and rises with the policy interest rate. The United States and Europe before 2008 and Japan before 1990 were in this state.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">But QE breaks that. As we just introduced, after the real estate bubble burst in 2008, due to the lack of fiscal stimulus, the United States had to walk on one leg and release a large amount of liquidity with monetary policy QE in an attempt to stimulate domestic demand, but it had little effect in the face of hard-hit families and enterprises. After the collateral price plummeted, people were not only reluctant to borrow money, but still had a lot of debt waiting to be repaid.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Therefore, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop of interest rates to 0, the liquidity of the United States has reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP has increased from 6% in 2008 to 25%; On the other hand, people hold huge savings but don't spend them. Not only did the funds not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but they also went back in the form of savings and loan repayments (the first picture), which delayed the economy and inflation (the second picture).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That is to say, if the whole monetary system still operates according to the mode before 2008, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If the money thrown by the central bank is compared to water, the current price is like a sponge wrapped in a layer of gum, which is difficult to get into water. Once the gum is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what happens once demand improves and people start to resume borrowing: bank credit and money supply may be several times higher than they are now, and prices may rise sharply, which will mean very high inflation.Under this expectation, once the economy shows signs of recovery and the high tension about inflationary pressures will aggravate the market's panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors are worried that the central bank will have to reduce bond purchases or even sell long-term bonds by then, so they also sell bonds to avoid risks. As a result, the long-term interest rates of QE countries will rise faster than without QE, further affecting the real economy. The economy, the stock market and the commodity market have caused serious fluctuations.The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly be. Gu Chaoming, chief researcher of Nomura Securities, proposed a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model during the third round of QE by the Federal Reserve in 2013, and discussed the degree of damage caused by long-term QE to the economy:Initially, the long-term interest rate decline in QE countries is much greater than that in non-QE countries, which means that the economic recovery will subsequently be faster (t1). However, as the economy picks up, monetary policy tightens, long-term interest rates rise rapidly, and some interest-sensitive industries are facing declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance again. After the economy recovered again, as the market refocused on the possibility of central banks absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates rose in a repeated cycle of so-called \"QE Trap\".<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In contrast, the decline in long-term interest rates in non-QE countries is gradual, which delays the onset of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster due to lower interest rates.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We can also draw this conclusion from the seven years of experience in gradually normalizing monetary policy in the United States before the epidemic. The last round of QE in the United States was gradually withdrawn in 2013, but what will happen if it doesn't? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.When the Federal Reserve first began to reduce its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. After that, despite nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) in October 2017, the inflation rate was still slowly rising. It is the same reason that deeply suppresses inflation and keeps inflation rising slowly, that is, the savings in the hands of households and businesses have never been digested. Without borrowing money, rising interest rates will not put pressure on them. This, in turn, shows that even if interest rates remain low at that time, economic activity may remain indifferent.Not only that, due to insufficient demand in the real economy, continued QE may lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, stirring up thick asset bubbles. In fact, the price of commercial real estate in the United States is now 50% higher than the last peak in 2007.Importantly, given that this round of QE is much faster than during the financial crisis, Gu Chaoming believes in a recently released research report that the U.S. economy has half stepped into the \"quantitative easing trap\". Once the private sector resumes borrowing, inflation will soar. High and long-term bond interest rates are imminent, and policy rates will need to be significantly increased to suppress inflation. In the prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate significantly to 22% to curb inflation. What level is needed today?03. The United States releases water and the world pays the bill. How will this big water release end?Just now we talked about the impact of the super water release on the US economy. Due to the existence of dollar hegemony, the influence of U.S. economic policy is by no means limited to the United States. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact, and it is likely that the whole world will pay for Americans.Among them, emerging markets may pay the biggest price, which has always been the case, and may also be one of the reasons why the United States releases water unscrupulously.In 2020, as the circulation of the U.S. dollar, as the global reserve currency, surged, countries started to release water to resist inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, and the United States used this to export inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase of house prices in various countries. According to OECD data, house prices in 89% of countries in the world rose last year, the highest ratio since 2000, especially in Turkey and Russia.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Now, with the increase of inflation expectations in the United States, the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields, and the dislocation of the recovery rhythm between the United States and emerging market countries, the U.S. dollar has begun to strengthen in stages, showing a return trend, and the situation has completely reversed. Emerging markets are forced to echo the old saying again: Americans print money, and the world pays.Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"rushed\" to advance rate hike before the Federal Reserve's action. In just one week before and after the U.S. interest rate meeting in March, many emerging market countries set off a wave of rate hike:On March 17th, the Central Bank of Brazil announced that it would raise the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (50 basis points expected).On March 18th, the Central Bank of Turkey announced that it would raise the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (the expected increase was 18%).On March 19, the Russian Central Bank announced a rate hike of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expectations remain at 4.25%).Not only that, indicators from emerging countries such as India, Argentina, Malaysian, Thai, and Korea all show that the market's expectations for rate hike are increasing, and there will be at least one rate hike from this year to the first half of next year.The main reason driving rate hike in emerging market countries is definitely the upward trend of inflation. From a general analysis point of view, the pressure of inflation still comes from the supply side. On the one hand, the production capacity of downstream consumer goods in such emerging market countries is inherently weak, and the impact of the epidemic has widened the gap between supply and demand, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, the proportion of food and transportation consumption in these countries is more than 40-50%, and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid rise in global petroleum products and food prices has further increased the imported inflation of emerging market countries. pressure.Chart: Inflation level reaches target policy area<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">To a large extent, these emerging market countries with high openness and dependence on foreign trade can only passively accept the spillover of developed countries' economies and policies. However, compared with the rise in inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially Brazil and Turkey, where the unemployment rate is more than 10%, and the control of the epidemic is once again facing tests.Chart: It will take time for the economy to recover<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">At the same time, in order to prevent the a vicious circle expectation of excessive return of the US dollar-depreciation of local currency-hyperinflation-domestic rate hike-falling asset prices-foreign debt exposure, emerging market countries have to take the lead in starting rate hike, firstly, to curb bubbles, and secondly, to stabilize capital outflows.Figure: The largest appreciation of currencies of various countries relative to the US dollar last year<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">And those countries with a high proportion of foreign debt and a significant increase in asset markets may pay a higher price. Since the beginning of this year, Turkish overnight lending rate has been above 15%, and it is still difficult to curb international capital outflows. After the unexpected rate hike, the central bank governor stepped down, which even triggered a vicious circle expectations, asset prices plummeted and exchange rate collapsed. From the perspective of foreign debt, Chile, South Africa, etc. are followed.High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, shows that more capital enters the virtual economy than the recovery of the real economy, and there is also a greater risk of capital outflow. Such as Argentina and India. Rate hike in these countries is more of a lesser operation of two evils, and there is not much independence of monetary policy at all. Once there is a rapid capital outflow, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.As for the United States, with the return of funds and the increase of U.S.-European arbitrage trade demand for U.S. debt, the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will be eased.Chart: European and American interest rate spreads widened to the average level<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The ebb and flow of the US dollar. As the largest emerging market country, China will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint and currency independence. However, under the global storm, the pressure on asset prices can hardly be eased.Perhaps currency can be over-printed, but wealth cannot. When we look at the current situation of global currency from a more macro perspective, a deeper proposition is how to make good use of our own policy tools, and how to identify good assets as individuals, so that our labor remuneration can be more stably preserved. Understanding the historical responsibility of RMB in our hands and its value of keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare for the upcoming risks.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130451341","content_text":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的双重浪潮，把全球市场的注意力瞬间从通缩转向通胀，几乎在股债市场掀起血雨腥风。而上周伴随鲍威尔在采访中突然开始释放鹰派信号，这场饕餮盛宴怕是要进入下半场了。真正酒阑人散之前，有人必须要做好买单的准备。只是，单有多大，又由谁来买？随着美国慢慢开始抄底全球资产，美元已经启动回流，新兴市场为了抵御冲击，早已经率先掀起了加息潮。货币的汪洋流向全球之际，是时候品一品美国前财长康纳利的话：美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题。本期我们就来盘一盘美国这场巨量刺激的来龙去脉。我们将着重探讨三件事:第一，美国推出史无前例的财政货币双刺激，为什么要下这么重的狠手？第二，超级刺激可能导致美国经济严重过热？第三，美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？01、美国这轮刺激有多猛财政刺激有多大？去年4月2.2万亿美元的财政刺激之后，特朗普政府年底又出台了一项9000亿美元的刺激；到了今年，拜登上来就通过了1.9万亿刺激法案，占到美国去年GDP的10%，转眼最新的2.25万亿基建又已官宣。不算还未正式出台的最后一项，短短一年时间，财政刺激总量已经达到了5万亿的天量，纵向对比，是08年金融危机之后两年奥巴马政府将近8000亿刺激的整整6倍；横向对比，这个数字占美国GDP的25%，这一比例远远超过德国（12%）和日本（16%）。而货币政策方面，这轮QE又有多大？2008年金融危机时，美联储耗时6年，用了三轮QE，一共也只购买了3万多亿美元资产，而这次QE只花了6个月，就轻轻松松达到了这一规模。如果08年的财货刺激是左手手里剑右手左轮手枪的话，这次就是两杆齐发的加农炮。但是为什么这次美国财政和货币政策两头都要狂风暴雨式地加足马力？先来看看财政。最新1.9万亿的通过非常戏剧化。这个数字首先是远远超过大家预期的，因为拜登提出这项计划的最初，共和党支持的刺激数字只有6000多亿，之间差了1.3万亿。而拜登之前又一直声称两党要团结合作，大家就认为他会做个折中，最后放水量应该也就在9000亿美元左右。但出人意料的是，拜登突然来了个“霸王硬上弓”式的操作，强行通过了一个叫作“预算调和程序”的方案。简单来说，它把参议院通过刺激法案原本所需要的票数大大降低，只需要过半数就能通过。于是未来就1.9万亿进行投票的时候，就算共和党一致反对，占参议院多数的民主党，也能强行甩开共和党，凭一己之力让法案得到推进。问题是，拜登为什么突然不顾共和党反对，急于让1.9万亿快速板上钉钉？因为2008年金融危机时，奥巴马的民主党就在财政刺激上吃过大亏。12年前，正是因为共和党反对，奥巴马政府的财政刺激方案大幅缩水，原本2万亿美元的刺激方案最终只通过了不到8000亿。但要知道，这点小钱远远无法令经济快速复苏，接下来两年美国经济增长缓慢，就业市场复苏陷入停滞，奥巴马的民众支持率直线下降，很快在2010年中选输掉了众院，被共和党重新夺回了控制权。可以说，上一轮危机中，正是由于奥巴马政府不够强硬，不仅导致民主党失势，还使得美国经济在泥潭中陷得更久。拜登作为奥巴马当时的副手，显然对这次教训刻骨铭心。所以自己上台后一不做二不休，来个硬碰硬，生怕重蹈当年覆辙。那么量化宽松呢？从上面的事实看来，09年的QE是在财政政策被共和党束缚住手脚的情况下，美国做出的“次优选择”。而如今既然已经有了天量刺激，为什么鲍威尔还要坚持迟迟不退出QE？我们认为，大致有以下三个原因：第一，鲍威尔始终不认为会有真正的严重通胀压力。像不久前他在美国众议院金融服务委员会听证会上所说，全球性通缩已持续20多年，现在短短一次通胀，怎么就会失控呢？第二，即便有通胀压力，由于美元的储备货币地位，通胀带来的后果并不需要美国独自承担。我们会在后面说到这一点。第三，比起通胀压力，美联储更担心的是通缩预期。所谓通缩，就是通货膨胀率降到零以下，整个社会处在一个物价持续、普遍下降的环境之中。一旦人们有了价格持续下跌的预期，就会把想买的东西留到未来更便宜的时候去买。比如你想买房，现在是5w一平米，但你预计过两年就变成4w一平米了，那在条件允许的情况下，一定是两年后买入更划得来。对企业购买原料、进行投资也是一样的逻辑。这样一来，消费和投资欲望就被大大降低，手里钱再多也无济于事。美国GDP超六成来自消费，需求不够，生产自然也上不去，经济只能停滞不前，整个过程有多可怕，看看日本“失去的20年”就知道。短期来看，QE对缓解通缩预期绝对是一剂猛药。它只需要做一件事，就是推高资产价格，尤其是股市和楼市价格，从而给人们营造一番手头富裕，经济也欣欣向荣的假象。即便并没有转化成真实的现金流，人们也可能开开心心地进行更多的消费，进而刺激生产和经济复苏。这完全是个心理学问题，在财政政策配合下尤其行得通。但是，切勿把牛市和实体经济走强混为一谈，QE是否是饮鸩止渴，未来会否对经济形成反噬？这是后话，我们会在下面讲到。02、美国经济可能过热刚才我们解释了，美国这次财政、货币刺激的规模史无前例。那么这样的巨额刺激下，美国经济会发生什么呢？答案就是通胀上升，经济过热，而且过热程度可能比市场预期要严重得多。因为长时间、大规模的QE，不知不觉给了通胀巨大的上行空间。为了了解长期QE的影响，下面，我们首先最简单地解释一下央行货币政策进行宏观调控的整个传导路径；再回到一个没有QE的“史前”世界里，看看正常情况下货币政策体系是怎么运转的；如今有了QE，运转模式又发生了怎样的变化。我们常说央行撒钱，但钱肯定不是直接撒在人民群众身上的，而是首先撒给商业银行等各个金融机构，构成基础货币。方法有很多种，包括调节再贴现率、调节存款准备金率，和QE最相关的买卖政府债券也是其中之一，央行买进债券的同时付出去一笔钱，实质就是向金融系统注入一笔基础货币。紧接着，各个银行要么把这些钱投入实体经济，也就是通过贷款的方式借给企业和家庭，让他们进行生产和消费，促进经济增长；要么，如果大多数企业和家庭都不愿意借钱，剩下的钱就会以储蓄的形式滞留在银行体系内部，或是流入股市等金融市场，则一方面实体经济发展缺少资金驱动，另一方面金融市场又可能积累过量资金引发泡沫。在QE前的世界，货币政策在上面一条道路上走得非常顺畅，即美联储通过常规货币政策提供的流动性，能很好地传到企业和居民手里。经济衰退时，一边积极的财政政策稳住企业和居民的信心，一边央行降低政策利率，同时给银行业提供流动性；商业银行一有钱，居民和企业也被低利率和财政刺激鼓舞着，积极借钱买房和投资。一旦经济开始复苏，央行所要做的就是逐步提高政策利率，抑制信贷，从而防止通胀。于是从图上可以看出，基础货币、货币供应、银行信贷三条线教科书一般地同起同落，在此过程中，长期利率也随政策利率下降和回升。2008年前的美欧，1990年前的日本就是处于这种状态。但是QE打破了这一局面。刚才我们介绍过，08年房地产泡沫破裂后，由于财政刺激不给力，美国不得不一条腿走路，用货币政策QE释放大量的流动性，试图刺激内需，却在受到重创的家庭和企业面前收效甚微。抵押物价格暴跌之后，人们不仅不愿意借钱，反而还有大量债务等着还。于是，一边是随着QE扩大、利率下降到0，美国流动性来到前所未有的水平，基础货币占GDP比重从08年的6%上升到25%；另一边，人们握着巨额储蓄却不花出去，资金不仅没有以贷款形式离开银行业，还以储蓄和还贷形式回去了（第一张图），使得经济和通胀迟迟上不来（第二张图）。也就是说，如果整个货币体系仍然按照08年以前的模式运行，现在美国的通胀应该已经上升到很高的水平了。如果把央行撒的钱比作水，现在的价格就像是裹了一层胶质、难以进水的海绵，一旦胶质被剥离掉，海绵就会迅速吸水进而膨胀。于是我们可以看到一旦需求改善，人们开始恢复借款会发生什么：银行信贷和货币供应量都可能比现在高出好几倍，物价也可能随之大幅度攀升，那将意味着非常高的通胀。在这种预期之下，一旦经济出现复苏迹象，对通胀压力的高度紧张，就将加剧市场对流动性波动的恐慌。投资者担心，央行到时候将不得不减少债券购买乃至卖出长期债券，于是也纷纷抛售债券来规避风险，从而，QE国家长期利率也会比没有QE时以更快的速度上行，进一步对实体经济和股市、商品市场造成严重波动。QE持续时间越长，这些问题无疑也会越严重。野村证券首席研究员辜朝明曾在2013年美联储第三轮QE期间，提出了一个“量化宽松陷阱”（QE Trap）模型，讨论了长时间QE对经济的损伤程度：最初，QE国长期利率降幅要比非QE国大得多，意味着随后经济复苏更快(t1)。但随着经济的回暖，货币政策收紧，长期利率迅速攀升，部分利率敏感行业又面临需求下降，迫使央行重新放松政策立场。经济再次复苏后，随着市场又重新关注央行吸收超额准备金的可能性，长期利率在一个所谓“QE Trap”的重复周期中上行。相比之下，非QE国长期利率下降是渐进的，这延迟了复苏的开始(t2)；但一旦经济开始好转，由于利率较低，复苏步伐实际会更快。从美国疫情前逐步货币政策正常化的7年经验当中，我们也可以推出这一结论。美国上一轮QE是在2013年逐步退出的，但如果不退会发生什么？经济会更好吗？也许不会。当年美联储刚开始缩减购债的时候，通胀率只有1%，之后虽然9次加息、2017年10月又开始了量化紧缩（QT），通胀率却仍然在慢慢上升。深压住通胀的和让通胀维持缓慢上行的是同一个原因，那就是家庭和企业手里的储蓄始终没有得到消化，没有借钱，利率升高也就对他们造不成压力。这反过来说明，即便当时利率继续保持低位，经济活动也可能无动于衷。不仅如此，由于实体经济需求不足，继续QE反而可能导致大量闲钱进入房地产和金融市场，激起厚厚的资产泡沫。事实上，美国商业地产价格目前已经比2007年的上一个峰值高出了50%。重要的是，鉴于本轮QE比金融危机时已经迅猛得多，辜朝明在最近发布的研报中认为，美国经济已经半只脚踏进“量化宽松陷阱”中了，私营部门一旦恢复借款，通胀飙高、长债利率飙升乃是一触即发，届时将需要大幅提高政策利率来压制通胀。在70年代末那个没有QE的史前世界，美联储把政策利率大幅提高到22%来抑制通胀，如今又需要怎样的水平呢？03、美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？刚才我们谈了超级大放水对美国经济的影响。由于美元霸权的存在，美国经济政策的影响力绝不限于美国国内，通过一系列传导机制，美国这轮经济刺激影响极为深远，很有可能让全球都为美国人买单。而其中付出最大代价的可能还是新兴市场，这在历来都是如此，可能也是美国肆无忌惮大放水的原因之一。2020年，随着作为全球储备货币的美元流通量激增，各国纷纷开启了放水之路，以抵抗美国超发货币所引发的通胀，美国借此将通胀输出到全球。这在各国的房价涨幅上就有直接体现，OECD数据显示，去年全球89%国家的房价都在上涨，这一比例为2000年以来最高，土耳其、俄罗斯尤其上涨超过20%。而如今随着美国通胀预期的增强，美债收益率大幅走高，以及美国与新兴市场国家复苏节奏的错位，美元开始阶段性走强，并呈现出回流态势，局面完全反转。新兴市场被迫再次响应那句老话：美国人印钞票，全世界来买单。3月以来，新兴市场国家集体“抢跑”，赶在美联储行动之前提前加息。美国3月的议息会议前后的短短一周中，多个新兴市场国家纷纷掀起加息潮：3月17日巴西央行宣布上调基准贷款利率75个基点至2.75%（预期50个基点）。3月18日土耳其央行宣布将关键利率上调200个基点至19%（预期上调至18%）。3月19日俄罗斯央行宣布加息25个基点至4.50%（预期维持4.25%）。不仅如此，印度、阿根廷、马来西亚、泰国、韩国等新兴国家的指标均显示，市场对于加息的预期正在增强，今年至明年上半年至少加息一次。推动新兴市场国家加息的主要原因肯定是通胀的上行。而通胀的压力从普遍的分析来看还是自于供给端。一方面这类新兴市场国家下游消费品端的生产能力本身就薄弱，疫情的冲击便使得供需缺口扩大，直接体现到推升商品价格上。另一方面，这些国家的食品与交通类消费占比都在40-50%之上，且依赖于进出口，因而全球石油制品和食品价格的快速上行便进一步增加了新兴市场国家的输入性通胀压力。图：通胀水平达到目标政策区域这些具有高开放性和外贸依赖的新兴市场国家，很大程度上，只能被动接受发达国家经济和政策的溢出。然而，相对于通胀的上行，这些新兴国家的经济修复还处于一个相对偏慢的过程中，尤其是巴西和土耳其，失业率高企10%以上，同时对疫情的控制也再度面临考验。图：经济修复尚需时日与此同时，为了防止出现美元过快回流—本币贬值—恶性通胀—本国加息—资产价格下跌—外债暴露的恶性循环预期，新兴市场国家也不得不率先启动加息，一来抑制泡沫，二来稳定资本流出。图：去年各国货币相对美元最大升值幅度而那些外债比例高和资产市场涨幅明显的国家，或会付出更大的代价。今年以来土耳其隔夜拆借利率高企于15%以上，依然难以抑制国际资本流出，超预期加息后央行行长下台更引发恶性循环预期，资产价格暴跌，汇率崩盘。从外债来看接下来是智利、南非等。通胀偏高，尤其是资产价格涨幅偏高的国家，显示资本更多进入虚拟经济体而非实体经济复苏，也存在较大的资本流出风险。比如阿根廷、印度。这些国家加息更多是两害权其轻的操作，也没有太多货币政策的独立性可言。一旦出现资本流出较快，他们将为去年的流动性盛宴付出代价。美国呢，随着资金回流，美欧套利交易增加美债需求，美债利率上行压力反倒会有所缓解。图：欧美利差水平走阔至均值水平美元潮起潮落，中国作为最大的新兴市场国家，得益于国内的供给能力、流动性克制和货币独立，将抵御部分冲击，但是在全球性的风暴之下，资产价格压力难言缓和。或许货币可以超印，但财富不能，当我们以一个更宏观的视角看待全球货币现状，一个更深刻的命题是，如何用好自己的政策工具，作为个人又如何甄别好的资产，让自己的劳动报酬获得更稳健的保值。理解手中人民币的历史责任和其韬光养晦的价值，我们或许能在即将到来的风险中有所准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2671,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}